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Investments, trends and recommendations (Oct 2020)

Recommendations: Treasure hunt This issue is packed with investment recommendations. Car sector, raw materials, technology stocks… we suggest you read it carefully then go on a treasure hunt! Samsung: Temporary mistrust The current economic and strategic rapprochement between the Chinese and South Korean leaders[1] makes us fear American reprisals. One can imagine that it will […]

Commodities: Towards an unsustainable volatility…

For the last 20 years, the international prices of many commodities have been set within a framework of globally recognised futures and spot contracts. Today, as many contracts detach from the delivery of the underlying physical commodity, volatility is surging on the back of QE and a host of new retail speculators have entered the […]

Horizon 2030 – Re-Imagining Vehicles to Combine Private Cars and Public Transportation

In a period of uncertainty and with the morose predictions that have constantly plagued it over the last ten years, the European car industry has undoubtedly taken advantage of the covid crisis to take a more wholesome route. In spite of a severe indictment, what with the saturation of urban spaces, environmental problems, unacceptable dangers […]

2021 – Galileo and the United Kingdom: (A Slight) Breturn

The United Kingdom has not been in the EU since January 2020. As a result, it has been cut off from access to the European GPS system, Galileo, which it had previously been a major contributor both in terms of science and money. Since 31 December, the British army no longer has access to the […]

American Democracy: Towards some Healthy Questioning… and a Government of National Unity

Everyone knows that democracy in general is sick. Nevertheless, the West continues to base the legitimacy of its world ‘leadership’ on this supposed civilisational superiority. In the 1990s, the wars fought in the Middle East in the name of ‘democracy’ stirred hatred towards this fine principle,[1] contributing to a decline in its attractiveness. But the […]

US Tempted by Petroyuan

Remember! Back in 2017 we anticipated that Saudi Arabia would soon be selling its oil in yuan? This was a highly provocative hypothesis at the time, since the country was then one of the two pillars of the petrodollar system.[1] Two years later, it became clear that export flows of Saudi oil were making a […]

New-Tech – U-Turn!

Back to reality all round. And if there is one area that has been seized by acute “virtualisation” in the last decade, it is technology companies. They have found themselves at the heart of a collective fantasy of the transmuting human being into bits and digits. Without calling into question the strong trend to digitalise […]

Global Systemic Crisis: Impending Return to Reality

For 12 years, the West has been struggling to understand the message of the 2008 crisis: “You are no longer the only ones on the planet!” The dollar, international organisations dominated by the West, Western-centric financial markets, trade flows focused on Europe and the US,… the fantastic global trade network set up during the first […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Sept 2020)

Commodity markets’ upcoming revolution Growing trade conflicts and de-globalisation within the commodity markets will trigger a rewrite of many COMEX pricing contracts and a resurgence in regional exchanges by 2025. For the last 20 years, the international pricing of key commodities has been driven by the growing market in futures contracts. Today, as many prices […]

LEAP ACADEMY ANNOUNCEMENT – Training in political anticipation

The world is undergoing one of the greatest transformations in history, directly linked to a global crisis making the future ever more uncertain. Whether it be governance, geopolitics, economic, social issues or new technologies, the GEAB tries to shed light on the future using a method that has stood up to scrutiny: political anticipation. For […]

Looking Ahead to 2040: From Fear of Panzootics to Agricultural Lockdown

The Covid-19 pandemic has considerably ramped up the fear in the agro-food sector of an epizootic/epiphytic pandemic on strategic foodstuffs (pork, rice, flour, etc.). The conditions that favour human, vegetable or animal-related pandemic are actually the same, namely overpopulation and interconnectivity. We anticipate that the scheduled modernisation of agriculture will be considerably accelerated as a […]

2020-2030: From SpaceX to the next ‘Star Wars’

The arrival of private satellite launchers – inaugurated by SpaceX – is a major game-changer, opening the way for space privatisation. If we combine this trend with the older one of a multi-polarisation (since the arrival of China, India, Brazil, etc.) of the skies, as well as the diversification of the uses of space (observation, […]

November US Elections: Three scenarios in anticipation of an electoral crisis

Our last article on the American election dates from four months ago (‘US Election 2020 – A New America takes over’ – GEAB, 15 May 2020).[1] Among the many arguments suggesting a significant risk of process derailment, we identified concerns about the management of the election; we believed that the change in voting access was […]

EU-Africa 2025 : Moria Fires and souring relations, A Paper from our Junior Team

Europe’s largest refugee camp, Moria on Lesbos, has burned to the ground[1]. 12 000 people have lost the closest thing they had to a home and Europe’s politicians are issuing statements of shock and horror, even though they have been well aware of the drastic situation in Moria for years. NGOs go as far as […]

2021 – The Youth Revolutions

The coronavirus crisis is moving the world into the future. This is true on absolutely all fronts and it has become considerably more complicated to observe the immense societal change. In the thirty or so pages of this issue, emerging themes such as the wild (private) colonisation of space and the immense risks involved, or […]

What will post-COVID-19 Europe look like? (Mar 2020)

The prospects for social reorganisation that can be imagined from the current health crisis are enormous. We have, therefore, decided to focus on Europe, about which we are much more certain than we are about the rest of the world. But certain trends of transformation will be the same everywhere. Governance: strengthening regional and global […]

The new face of post-election Europe (May 2019)

There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]

European elections / Europe 2040: ‘And now for something completely different’ (Mar 2019)

There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 in Maastricht), the upcoming elections will seal the vision it has held for 27 years. And this is not an anticipation! We reiterate that the […]