Abstracts and more

  • US Debt / Inflation: The FED as a support tool for Mr Trump’s objectives February 2018 - At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones Index erased its January gains and entered a downward spiral. Since then, the financial world has been looking feverish. The correction developed its own momentum, due, particularly, to the impact of new volatility derivatives. However, its real starting point was on February 2nd, when the January trend of hourly wage growth was published; it rose by 2.9% after 2.6% last December[1]. That acceleration caused the market to fear a faster monetary tightening than expected in the United States and, consequently, a slowdown in economic growth. After nine years of continuous rise – one of the longest in Wall Street history

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  • GlobalEurope Panorama 2018 – Financial Blues (fragments) January 2018 - Reinforced by the 75% success rate of our 2017 anticipations, our team presents in this January issue of the GEAB, 5 structuring trends and 33  “Up & Down 2018” anticipations. Here are some financial related fragments we selected for you. Many more topics are covered in the full version (available upon subscription) of this GlobalEurope Panorama: finance (inflation, QE, Eurozone, interest rates, Fed …), investments (gold, oil, sand …), economy (Construction sector, large companies, growth, employment, Africa …), currencies (dollar, euro, yuan), geopolitics (Koreas, Iran, South America, Russia …), public opinion (poverty, longevity, radicalisation …), politics (populism , regulation, monitoring, Trump, Putin, May …), technologies (Bitcoin, Airbnb, …), etc … One structuring trend – The existential crisis of the financial sector (fragment taken from the Panorama 2018) The end of easy money related to that

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  • A roaring 120th: Evaluation 2017, Bitcoin, Israel… Somewhere between dream and nightmare December 2017 - Another year is ending. The 12th year for us… and for some of you as GEAB readers. As it goes with Decembers, it is time to take a break, to ponder the road we have travelled, to question the relevance of pursuing, and to ask ourselves what research orientations to give to this coming year 2018. By the way we invite you to run the same retrospective in your own activity domains… Our annual evaluation is, of course, central to this reflection: a 75% success rate according to our assessment of the “36 trends of the year 2017” we identified last January; something which comforts us on the accurate view of the “map of the year to come” we put on the table 11 months ago. All in all: .

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  • Petroyuan and Saudi Arabia: From the temptation of the US “Military QE” to the creation of a Middle East 3.0 November 2017 - End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich countries The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all approaching a slowdown in bond buyback. In Europe, Draghi has repeated it over and over again[1]: the Central Bank cannot do everything and therefore structural reforms of the euro are urgently needed. This is the context is which the term of “fiscal QE”[2] was coined, aimed at allowing the financing of infrastructure via a strengthening of fiscal policies at

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  • Global Systemic Crisis / End of 2017: High turbulence zone! Finance – Freedom – Security – Kaliningrad: Avoid the Third World War now! October 2017 - More than three years after the Ukraine-related Euro-Russian catastrophe, there is no hope of an end to this crisis. On the contrary, the tension inexorably keeps climbing: Donbass still at war, annexation of Crimea by Russia not recognised by the international community,… the eyes are now turning to the Baltic Sea where demonstrations of military testosterone is progressing well on both sides of the new iron curtain[1]. Not far from Gdansk, the former Danzig, whose corridor contributed to the outbreak of the Second World War, another corridor is now the object of all desire and may become a trigger of nothing less than a Third World War: the corridor, or the triangle, of Suwalki. Figure 1 – The triangle of Suwalki. Source: Strafor 2015 Kaliningrad and territorial integrities  Since 2004

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  • Western Systemic Crisis 2017-2019 – The Almighty dollar against the Great Petro-Yuan Temptation September 2017 - Qatar, North Korea, the Baltic Sea, risk of a World War III… and all the military ranting mentioned in the media lately, are issues going hand in hand with the programmed and imminent advent of the catastrophic scenario for the dollar as a unique world reference currency: the Petro-Yuan will be in place at the end of the year. More than a petro-currency, it will be a petro-gas-gold-currency! The West is thus preparing to switch to total anachronism with this founding act of the 21st century multipolar world. 2014-2017: here we are, at the end of a three-year exacerbation period of tensions on all front lines (West against the rest of the world) and we are witnessing the up-coming end of the dollar’s reign over the world and over all

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  • 2019 / Brexit: Towards the reintegration of the new UK into a new Europe June 2017 - Our loyal readers will not have been surprised by the result of Theresa May’s early election. Not only had we put in perspective a defeat of Theresa May, despite the favourable outcome given to her by the polls; but, from Greece to the United Kingdom, we keep repeating that there is no exit from Europe, only some redefinition shocks… for better or for worse. If the Greek crisis proved the need to change Europe, the Brexit opened the possibility for it. For a year or so it was difficult to know what salad dressing we were going to get: would it be the British mint sauce (taking us to a new alliance of nations) or the mustard sauce of the mainland (upholding the Unionist principles, but regaining control of the

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  • Economics: Good news will be pouring! The French presidential election at the heart of a European takeover of the media narrative May 2017 - The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the country opposed the war in Iraq. And yet, just when we think that the influence of this country was dead and buried, the French presidential election of 2017 gets international attention rarely equalled; a sign that the insignificant France is perhaps not so insignificant when it runs the risk of electing a far-right president into the heart of Europe. But the verdict has fallen and the world can now breathe again[1]: although France is the Western country to have suffered the most from terrorism in recent years, the French have resisted the sirens of xenophobia and retreat, by rejecting the

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  • Global Systemic Crisis 2017-2021 – A phase of chaotic recomposition of the World: national re-landing, crash or rebound? April 2017 - This expression “chaotic recomposition” seems best to summarise the phase where we currently are with regards to the development of the crisis, a step indicated here as extending over four years and which will include distinct progression phases. It is quite clear that efforts to reorganise the world on a transnational logic have all failed in this first half of 2017: . The inter-or supranational system built in the 20th century (UN, IMF, WB, NATO, etc.) failed to adapt and to oversee the new multipolar geopolitical configuration of the beginning of the 21st century. It is now in full slump, in all its forms, regions included (EU, Mercosur, etc.); . Promising emerging experiences at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, with the G20, the BRICS and

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  • Trump’s America: the lifting of the US default taboo March 2017 - Without Kissinger to negotiate the petrodollar and put the US currency back to the centre of the global game after the shock of Nixon’s announcement in 1971 to halt the convertibility of the dollar to gold, the greenback would never have been the world benchmark since more than 40 years. Will Trump really know how to surround himself with advisers of the same calibre? Also, will he take their advice? Because a shock of the same magnitude is currently in gestation: it is called ‘payment default’ of the US public debt. It is the taboo which was lifted by the election of Trump. So, will it be a self-fulfilling prophecy or healthy debate? A solution or a total disaster? The unthinkable sovereign default  If there is a country on this

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