Abstracts and more

  • pic geab124 The Indian development: A social, political and geopolitical bomb April 2018 - In view of Narendra Modi’s very probable re-election in 2019, it is time to take stock of the Indian Prime Minister’s first term; a somewhat mixed balance sheet, both economically and politically. The partial failure of the demonetisation scheme, the numerous SME bankruptcies, the prospect of a rural exodus of nearly 600 million people over the next two decades, the formation of oligarchic businesses, the clear authoritarian drift in the way of governing, growing inter-religious violent acts and rising inequalities are all presenting a worrying image of the future for this huge country which dreams of outperforming China in less than twenty years. To do this, India will need to rely on foreign investments (FDI – Foreign Direct Investment, to be threatened by prospects of country insecurity) whilst simultaneously maintaining ... Read
  • GEAB 123 United Kingdom 2019: What if Brexit proved to be a success story? March 2018 - So far, the media and political analysts have been unanimous: Brexit represents an uncertain and dangerous future only for the UK. Our readers know that we have always been more circumspect about this. Now that the first phase of negotiations has been completed (at the end of last year) and the second phase is about to start, it is time to admit that this exit from the EU also opens up many opportunities for the UK and that it creates new risks for the EU. Within this second phase of negotiations, which will focus on the transition period and the future relationship between the two parties, the balance of power could indeed reverse. The British government, criticised for lack of clarity and realism since the beginning, clarified a number of ... Read
  • pic geab 122 US Debt / Inflation: The FED as a support tool for Mr Trump’s objectives February 2018 - At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones Index erased its January gains and entered a downward spiral. Since then, the financial world has been looking feverish. The correction developed its own momentum, due, particularly, to the impact of new volatility derivatives. However, its real starting point was on February 2nd, when the January trend of hourly wage growth was published; it rose by 2.9% after 2.6% last December[1]. That acceleration caused the market to fear a faster monetary tightening than expected in the United States and, consequently, a slowdown in economic growth. After nine years of continuous rise – one of the longest in Wall Street history ... Read
  • GEAB 121 GlobalEurope Panorama 2018: Inauguration of the “World-after” (excerpts) February 2018 - To preface our up & down trends presented in this issue, here are the orientations which we consider structuring for 2018. This panorama, combined with the 33 up & down trends, presents a vision of the landscape we see for this year. The existential crisis of the financial sector The end of easy money related to that of the monetary easing policies, will put the game of competition back on track after years of public support for dominant economic forces. It also announces a cleansing of the economic field. By 2018, some spectacular corporate bankruptcies could send significant shocks to the financial markets. But generally speaking, we estimate that the year will be a difficult year for the financial world; it will enter a period of existential crisis, following the ... Read
  • pic geab120 A roaring 120th: Evaluation 2017, Bitcoin, Israel… Somewhere between dream and nightmare December 2017 - Another year is ending. The 12th year for us… and for some of you as GEAB readers. As it goes with Decembers, it is time to take a break, to ponder the road we have travelled, to question the relevance of pursuing, and to ask ourselves what research orientations to give to this coming year 2018. By the way we invite you to run the same retrospective in your own activity domains… Our annual evaluation is, of course, central to this reflection: a 75% success rate according to our assessment of the “36 trends of the year 2017” we identified last January; something which comforts us on the accurate view of the “map of the year to come” we put on the table 11 months ago. All in all: . ... Read
  • pic GEAB 119 Petroyuan and Saudi Arabia: From the temptation of the US “Military QE” to the creation of a Middle East 3.0 November 2017 - End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich countries The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all approaching a slowdown in bond buyback. In Europe, Draghi has repeated it over and over again[1]: the Central Bank cannot do everything and therefore structural reforms of the euro are urgently needed. This is the context is which the term of “fiscal QE”[2] was coined, aimed at allowing the financing of infrastructure via a strengthening of fiscal policies at ... Read
  • geab 118 pic Global Systemic Crisis / End of 2017: High turbulence zone! Finance – Freedom – Security – Kaliningrad: Avoid the Third World War now! October 2017 - More than three years after the Ukraine-related Euro-Russian catastrophe, there is no hope of an end to this crisis. On the contrary, the tension inexorably keeps climbing: Donbass still at war, annexation of Crimea by Russia not recognised by the international community,… the eyes are now turning to the Baltic Sea where demonstrations of military testosterone is progressing well on both sides of the new iron curtain[1]. Not far from Gdansk, the former Danzig, whose corridor contributed to the outbreak of the Second World War, another corridor is now the object of all desire and may become a trigger of nothing less than a Third World War: the corridor, or the triangle, of Suwalki. Figure 1 – The triangle of Suwalki. Source: Strafor 2015 Kaliningrad and territorial integrities  Since 2004 ... Read
  • pic GEAB 117 Western Systemic Crisis 2017-2019 – The Almighty dollar against the Great Petro-Yuan Temptation September 2017 - Qatar, North Korea, the Baltic Sea, risk of a World War III… and all the military ranting mentioned in the media lately, are issues going hand in hand with the programmed and imminent advent of the catastrophic scenario for the dollar as a unique world reference currency: the Petro-Yuan will be in place at the end of the year. More than a petro-currency, it will be a petro-gas-gold-currency! The West is thus preparing to switch to total anachronism with this founding act of the 21st century multipolar world. 2014-2017: here we are, at the end of a three-year exacerbation period of tensions on all front lines (West against the rest of the world) and we are witnessing the up-coming end of the dollar’s reign over the world and over all ... Read
  • geab 116 pic 2019 / Brexit: Towards the reintegration of the new UK into a new Europe June 2017 - Our loyal readers will not have been surprised by the result of Theresa May’s early election. Not only had we put in perspective a defeat of Theresa May, despite the favourable outcome given to her by the polls; but, from Greece to the United Kingdom, we keep repeating that there is no exit from Europe, only some redefinition shocks… for better or for worse. If the Greek crisis proved the need to change Europe, the Brexit opened the possibility for it. For a year or so it was difficult to know what salad dressing we were going to get: would it be the British mint sauce (taking us to a new alliance of nations) or the mustard sauce of the mainland (upholding the Unionist principles, but regaining control of the ... Read
  • pic geab 115 Economics: Good news will be pouring! The French presidential election at the heart of a European takeover of the media narrative May 2017 - The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the country opposed the war in Iraq. And yet, just when we think that the influence of this country was dead and buried, the French presidential election of 2017 gets international attention rarely equalled; a sign that the insignificant France is perhaps not so insignificant when it runs the risk of electing a far-right president into the heart of Europe. But the verdict has fallen and the world can now breathe again[1]: although France is the Western country to have suffered the most from terrorism in recent years, the French have resisted the sirens of xenophobia and retreat, by rejecting the ... Read