Abstracts and more

  • pic GEAB 111 Money, Finance, Europe, Democracy, Geopolitical Configuration: the GEAB bulletin’s 35 trends January 2017 - Every year, LEAP/E2020 is offering you a short overview of the up and down[1] trends of the year which is starting. In addition to the intellectual interest of this contribution of LEAP/E2020, which of course reflects many of our researchers’ analyses over the past few months, it aims at providing a better perception of priorities within the news, at the same time conveying tracks of recommendations. This list can thus help very concretely the GEAB reader to get prepared for the year to come. With an eleven-year success rate ranging from 69% to 85%, this annual anticipation is a very concrete decision-making tool for the next twelve months. The following 35 Trends highlighted here after are related to the following ten Very Wide Trends for 2017: . The consequences of ... Read
  • pic110 Demon-etisation: India opens with a fanfare the ball of the fiscal QEs December 2016 - Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the Indian government is trying to reintegrate into the official economy the state’s gigantic parallel (or black or more simply the archaic) economy. In a nation where 90% of the transactions are made in cash, a huge part of the financial activity escapes the knowledge of the central government, and therefore statistics, taxes and infrastructure financing. Blue: volume; red: value. Source: Bloomberg. Warning signs There is nothing new in the fact that the central government tries to force its population to declare their wealth. For example, between 1951 and ... Read
  • domino-fr US Elections / Europe / World – Trump’s victory and the domino effect: Will the Euro survive beyond 2017? November 2016 - Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system corresponds to a radicalisation of the ex-ante situation. In reality, Trump is the symptom of a Western system which has failed to adapt[1] and is now trying to rule through pure violent rhetoric, by targeting citizens and nations who propose politico-economic counter-models. The method will therefore change, but the objectives and the main principles will not. Among all the uncertainties that remain, we must now understand the subsequent challenges that threaten the rest of the world; especially the Euro zone. Technically, new opportunities for a greater European independence ... Read
  • pic-geab-108 US Isolation: When global finance turns away from the dollar system, it means the cliff is near October 2016 - The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will be due to a lack of foreign policy; in the case of Clinton, her iron-fist will have a word. Another domain, namely finance, which has so far been spared, is being added to this political dimension; something which has always been at the centre of America’s power in the world. No wonder this happens at the very moment the US can no longer hold itself. The Deutsche Bank case: a very useful scarecrow  When in trouble, the US always uses the same method, which consists of hiding its ... Read
  • pic-geab-107 American Election – Brexit – Euroland – TTIP – Turkey – Russian Sanctions: What future is there for the European Commission within the big redefinition of the Transatlantic Relationship? September 2016 - Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration vitally requires a profound change of the EU. The United States, structural associate of the European project since its origin – but mostly since the fall of the Berlin Wall – has also changed its role and place in the world. And now, with the global systemic crisis, its transformation emphasises even more the EU’s urgent need to adapt; in terms of its nature, purpose and external relations. But most of all, its need to reform its most emblematic administrative body, the European Commission. Visible Deterioration of the Transatlantic Relationship    A period of thirteen years will have passed since the ... Read
  • GEAB 106 pic Angry nations, democratic challenges, global systemic crisis – Balkanization and returning empires in Central and Eastern Europe: the drama of the failure of European integration and of the Euro-Russian crisis June 2016 - In 2014, our team anticipated the disintegration of the Eastern European flank following the conflict between the EU and Russia. Two years later, the damage has become visible. If Europe and Russia fail to renew any dialogue, the worst is yet to come in this part of Europe, a region where old demons are in full resurrection (Cold War, European wars, balkanization and empires…) and where the failures of the EU enlargement policy are coming to light. Figure 1 – Map of Central and Eastern Europe. Source: KKR. The Integration of Eastern Europe has failed  The biggest failure in the past 30 years of European integration is related to the enlargement policy of the ex-Soviet countries. This policy, essentially driven by the greed of Western European companies (and beyond), was ... Read
  • pic geab105 Peace, global governance, European integration, Middle-East, OPEC: Emerging of the multipolar world imposes a change of method May 2016 - Since 2006, when the GEAB bulletin was launched, our team has placed the emerging multipolar world at the heart of the global systemic crisis. The effects of the growing relativity of the American power were the first visible signs of a vast global reconfiguration. Then, in 2009, with the creation of the BRIC(S)[1] club, the new players started to impose themselves in an organized manner on the international stage, really giving substance to this concept of a multipolar world[2]. That said, the strategy of the emerging powers first consisted of creating a common front aimed at reforming the existing international institutions, in particular through the G20[3]. Initially, the new powers mostly intended to be recognized and integrated into the international architecture built by the West in the twentieth century. Some ... Read
  • pic geab 104 Brazil, Europe, Iran, US, Saudi Arabia – The return of national sovereignty: heading toward one ultimate stand? April 2016 - For nearly 10 years now, the global systemic crisis has been composing an impressive symphonic « canon »[1] in which the financial crisis, the economic crisis, the social crisis, the political crisis, the ideological crisis and the geopolitical crisis, all of them of a global dimension, play similar melodic lines sequenced one after the other. We’ve been repeating it for months: it’s the political aspect of the crisis which currently dominates the global agenda in an increasingly worrisome manner. The weakening of states as a result of these political crises, combined with geopolitical or economic shocks suffered by these states, leads to national retrenchment and hardening that does not bode well for democracy, from a domestic point of view, or for peace, from an international point of view. We’ve already seen all ... Read
  • Pic GEAB 103 NATO, central banks, migrant crisis, TTIP, technologies … Western elites in panic mode for a future in the form of a question mark March 2016 - Considering the barrage of change indicators, our GEAB team currently feels like they don’t know where to start in order to provide a coherent and complete picture of the crisis. Yet, this feeling is probably nothing compared to what our leaders and their advisers experience. A sense of loss of control of the flow of events probably characterizing the Western leadership in 2016 is what makes the rest of the year quite difficult to predict. The general feeling is that we are approaching the unwinding of a ten year paradigm shift, but the panic created by the approaching perspective of actual change among the leaders, the Western leaders in particular, is once again raising the question of the exact form this unwinding will take. When the world sustaining a governance ... Read
  • pic GEAB 102 Petro-Euro, money-debt, banking crisis, real economy: ten years to seal the fate of an economic-financial system February 2016 - Precisely ten years ago (to the day), in its second bulletin of February 2006[1], warning about the imminent explosion of a «global systemic crisis”, the GEAB based its opinion on the identification of two strong signs: the end of the publication of the M3 money supply indicator[2] (suggesting a start to unusual degrees of the famous “money printing” which everyone has spoken about ever since); and the Iranian oil bourse launch – a country not yet constrained by international sanctions at the time – but a stock market based on the Euro[3]. These two strong signs enabled the GEAB team of that time to say that something big was about to happen, something which was going to bring into question the foundations of the system in which the economic-financial world ... Read