Abstracts and more

  • pic GEAB 126 2020-2040: Exponential global development June 2018 - The world is on the brink of a wave of unprecedented development which is poised to sweep over the Middle East, Africa, India, Southeast Asia, the United States and the planet as a whole. The foundations on which this new world will be built are becoming clearer and clearer: A globalised electric grid, networks of financial centres, new commercial roads, crypto-currencies, e-economies, reinvented global governance etc. All these provide the infrastructure which will shape this unimaginable phase of multipolar and multiconnected development, which we will attempt to describe in the following paragraphs. Exponential or explo-sive? If we look at the growth of world GDP since 1960,[1] we see that it is growing at a surprisingly steady rate, with the exception of one recessive jolt in 2008-2009. This is not really ... Read
  • pic geab125 Currencies, armies, oil: Extensive repositioning of major world players May 2018 - Following the removal of the last of the bolts imposed by the previous world order[1], and in line with our anticipations, vast amounts of until now restrained transforming energy are now being released along paths that have long been marked out but were previously forbidden. The challenges raised by this transition are immense, but the major global players seem to be in a position to handle – and no longer endure – this huge reconfiguration. As a matter of fact, we are beginning to see more clearly who they are and what their strategies are. This is precisely what we aim to report in this GEAB issue. China is unveiling its economic power (as the world’s largest importer of oil), its military power (with J-20 stealth fighter planes[2], air-to-air missiles[3]) ... Read
  • pic geab124 The Indian development: A social, political and geopolitical bomb April 2018 - In view of Narendra Modi’s very probable re-election in 2019, it is time to take stock of the Indian Prime Minister’s first term; a somewhat mixed balance sheet, both economically and politically. The partial failure of the demonetisation scheme, the numerous SME bankruptcies, the prospect of a rural exodus of nearly 600 million people over the next two decades, the formation of oligarchic businesses, the clear authoritarian drift in the way of governing, growing inter-religious violent acts and rising inequalities are all presenting a worrying image of the future for this huge country which dreams of outperforming China in less than twenty years. To do this, India will need to rely on foreign investments (FDI – Foreign Direct Investment, to be threatened by prospects of country insecurity) whilst simultaneously maintaining ... Read
  • United Kingdom 2019: What if Brexit proved to be a success story? March 2018 - So far, the media and political analysts have been unanimous: Brexit represents an uncertain and dangerous future only for the UK. Our readers know that we have always been more circumspect about this. Now that the first phase of negotiations has been completed (at the end of last year) and the second phase is about to start, it is time to admit that this exit from the EU also opens up many opportunities for the UK and that it creates new risks for the EU. Within this second phase of negotiations, which will focus on the transition period and the future relationship between the two parties, the balance of power could indeed reverse… Read more in the GEAB 123 2018 Multipolar globalisation: EU adopts the pro-trade protectionist model As we ... Read
  • GEAB 123 United Kingdom 2019: What if Brexit proved to be a success story? March 2018 - So far, the media and political analysts have been unanimous: Brexit represents an uncertain and dangerous future only for the UK. Our readers know that we have always been more circumspect about this. Now that the first phase of negotiations has been completed (at the end of last year) and the second phase is about to start, it is time to admit that this exit from the EU also opens up many opportunities for the UK and that it creates new risks for the EU. Within this second phase of negotiations, which will focus on the transition period and the future relationship between the two parties, the balance of power could indeed reverse. The British government, criticised for lack of clarity and realism since the beginning, clarified a number of ... Read
  • pic geab 122 US Debt / Inflation: The FED as a support tool for Mr Trump’s objectives February 2018 - At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones Index erased its January gains and entered a downward spiral. Since then, the financial world has been looking feverish. The correction developed its own momentum, due, particularly, to the impact of new volatility derivatives. However, its real starting point was on February 2nd, when the January trend of hourly wage growth was published; it rose by 2.9% after 2.6% last December[1]. That acceleration caused the market to fear a faster monetary tightening than expected in the United States and, consequently, a slowdown in economic growth. After nine years of continuous rise – one of the longest in Wall Street history ... Read
  • GEAB 121 GlobalEurope Panorama 2018: Inauguration of the “World-after” (excerpts) February 2018 - To preface our up & down trends presented in this issue, here are the orientations which we consider structuring for 2018. This panorama, combined with the 33 up & down trends, presents a vision of the landscape we see for this year. The existential crisis of the financial sector The end of easy money related to that of the monetary easing policies, will put the game of competition back on track after years of public support for dominant economic forces. It also announces a cleansing of the economic field. By 2018, some spectacular corporate bankruptcies could send significant shocks to the financial markets. But generally speaking, we estimate that the year will be a difficult year for the financial world; it will enter a period of existential crisis, following the ... Read
  • pic geab120 A roaring 120th: Evaluation 2017, Bitcoin, Israel… Somewhere between dream and nightmare December 2017 - Another year is ending. The 12th year for us… and for some of you as GEAB readers. As it goes with Decembers, it is time to take a break, to ponder the road we have travelled, to question the relevance of pursuing, and to ask ourselves what research orientations to give to this coming year 2018. By the way we invite you to run the same retrospective in your own activity domains… Our annual evaluation is, of course, central to this reflection: a 75% success rate according to our assessment of the “36 trends of the year 2017” we identified last January; something which comforts us on the accurate view of the “map of the year to come” we put on the table 11 months ago. All in all: . ... Read
  • pic GEAB 119 Petroyuan and Saudi Arabia: From the temptation of the US “Military QE” to the creation of a Middle East 3.0 November 2017 - End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich countries The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all approaching a slowdown in bond buyback. In Europe, Draghi has repeated it over and over again[1]: the Central Bank cannot do everything and therefore structural reforms of the euro are urgently needed. This is the context is which the term of “fiscal QE”[2] was coined, aimed at allowing the financing of infrastructure via a strengthening of fiscal policies at ... Read
  • geab 118 pic Global Systemic Crisis / End of 2017: High turbulence zone! Finance – Freedom – Security – Kaliningrad: Avoid the Third World War now! October 2017 - More than three years after the Ukraine-related Euro-Russian catastrophe, there is no hope of an end to this crisis. On the contrary, the tension inexorably keeps climbing: Donbass still at war, annexation of Crimea by Russia not recognised by the international community,… the eyes are now turning to the Baltic Sea where demonstrations of military testosterone is progressing well on both sides of the new iron curtain[1]. Not far from Gdansk, the former Danzig, whose corridor contributed to the outbreak of the Second World War, another corridor is now the object of all desire and may become a trigger of nothing less than a Third World War: the corridor, or the triangle, of Suwalki. Figure 1 – The triangle of Suwalki. Source: Strafor 2015 Kaliningrad and territorial integrities  Since 2004 ... Read