Abstracts and more

  • pic geab 115 Economics: Good news will be pouring! The French presidential election at the heart of a European takeover of the media narrative May 2017 - The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the country opposed the war in Iraq. And yet, just when we think that the influence of this country was dead and buried, the French presidential election of 2017 gets international attention rarely equalled; a sign that the insignificant France is perhaps not so insignificant when it runs the risk of electing a far-right president into the heart of Europe. But the verdict has fallen and the world can now breathe again[1]: although France is the Western country to have suffered the most from terrorism in recent years, the French have resisted the sirens of xenophobia and retreat, by rejecting the ... Read
  • geab 114 pic Global Systemic Crisis 2017-2021 – A phase of chaotic recomposition of the World: national re-landing, crash or rebound? April 2017 - This expression “chaotic recomposition” seems best to summarise the phase where we currently are with regards to the development of the crisis, a step indicated here as extending over four years and which will include distinct progression phases. It is quite clear that efforts to reorganise the world on a transnational logic have all failed in this first half of 2017: . The inter-or supranational system built in the 20th century (UN, IMF, WB, NATO, etc.) failed to adapt and to oversee the new multipolar geopolitical configuration of the beginning of the 21st century. It is now in full slump, in all its forms, regions included (EU, Mercosur, etc.); . Promising emerging experiences at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, with the G20, the BRICS and ... Read
  • geab 113 pic Trump’s America: the lifting of the US default taboo March 2017 - Without Kissinger to negotiate the petrodollar and put the US currency back to the centre of the global game after the shock of Nixon’s announcement in 1971 to halt the convertibility of the dollar to gold, the greenback would never have been the world benchmark since more than 40 years. Will Trump really know how to surround himself with advisers of the same calibre? Also, will he take their advice? Because a shock of the same magnitude is currently in gestation: it is called ‘payment default’ of the US public debt. It is the taboo which was lifted by the election of Trump. So, will it be a self-fulfilling prophecy or healthy debate? A solution or a total disaster? The unthinkable sovereign default  If there is a country on this ... Read
  • pic geab.eu Global statistical dislocation: the multiplication of tools for measuring economic reality February 2017 - Within the global systemic crisis that we are now experiencing, our experts have been talking for some years about “statistical fog” to qualify the inability of today’s tools to measure real economy, or even the way to manipulate them in order to match results to the political speech (or vice versa). Leaving aside the temptation to manipulate, this “statistical fog” also derives from the fact that the economy is evolving profoundly, and yesterday’s indicators (GDP, unemployment, etc.) are no longer relevant in today’s world. After a few vain attempts to transform these old time indicators, we are able to see new initiatives which we anticipate to be sustainable this time, and which in the short term will form some confusion before harmonizing themselves by 2025, pushed by international bodies such ... Read
  • pic GEAB 111 Money, Finance, Europe, Democracy, Geopolitical Configuration: the GEAB bulletin’s 35 trends January 2017 - Every year, LEAP/E2020 is offering you a short overview of the up and down[1] trends of the year which is starting. In addition to the intellectual interest of this contribution of LEAP/E2020, which of course reflects many of our researchers’ analyses over the past few months, it aims at providing a better perception of priorities within the news, at the same time conveying tracks of recommendations. This list can thus help very concretely the GEAB reader to get prepared for the year to come. With an eleven-year success rate ranging from 69% to 85%, this annual anticipation is a very concrete decision-making tool for the next twelve months. The following 35 Trends highlighted here after are related to the following ten Very Wide Trends for 2017: . The consequences of ... Read
  • pic110 Demon-etisation: India opens with a fanfare the ball of the fiscal QEs December 2016 - Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the Indian government is trying to reintegrate into the official economy the state’s gigantic parallel (or black or more simply the archaic) economy. In a nation where 90% of the transactions are made in cash, a huge part of the financial activity escapes the knowledge of the central government, and therefore statistics, taxes and infrastructure financing. Blue: volume; red: value. Source: Bloomberg. Warning signs There is nothing new in the fact that the central government tries to force its population to declare their wealth. For example, between 1951 and ... Read
  • domino-fr US Elections / Europe / World – Trump’s victory and the domino effect: Will the Euro survive beyond 2017? November 2016 - Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system corresponds to a radicalisation of the ex-ante situation. In reality, Trump is the symptom of a Western system which has failed to adapt[1] and is now trying to rule through pure violent rhetoric, by targeting citizens and nations who propose politico-economic counter-models. The method will therefore change, but the objectives and the main principles will not. Among all the uncertainties that remain, we must now understand the subsequent challenges that threaten the rest of the world; especially the Euro zone. Technically, new opportunities for a greater European independence ... Read
  • pic-geab-108 US Isolation: When global finance turns away from the dollar system, it means the cliff is near October 2016 - The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will be due to a lack of foreign policy; in the case of Clinton, her iron-fist will have a word. Another domain, namely finance, which has so far been spared, is being added to this political dimension; something which has always been at the centre of America’s power in the world. No wonder this happens at the very moment the US can no longer hold itself. The Deutsche Bank case: a very useful scarecrow  When in trouble, the US always uses the same method, which consists of hiding its ... Read
  • pic-geab-107 American Election – Brexit – Euroland – TTIP – Turkey – Russian Sanctions: What future is there for the European Commission within the big redefinition of the Transatlantic Relationship? September 2016 - Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration vitally requires a profound change of the EU. The United States, structural associate of the European project since its origin – but mostly since the fall of the Berlin Wall – has also changed its role and place in the world. And now, with the global systemic crisis, its transformation emphasises even more the EU’s urgent need to adapt; in terms of its nature, purpose and external relations. But most of all, its need to reform its most emblematic administrative body, the European Commission. Visible Deterioration of the Transatlantic Relationship    A period of thirteen years will have passed since the ... Read
  • GEAB 106 pic Angry nations, democratic challenges, global systemic crisis – Balkanization and returning empires in Central and Eastern Europe: the drama of the failure of European integration and of the Euro-Russian crisis June 2016 - In 2014, our team anticipated the disintegration of the Eastern European flank following the conflict between the EU and Russia. Two years later, the damage has become visible. If Europe and Russia fail to renew any dialogue, the worst is yet to come in this part of Europe, a region where old demons are in full resurrection (Cold War, European wars, balkanization and empires…) and where the failures of the EU enlargement policy are coming to light. Figure 1 – Map of Central and Eastern Europe. Source: KKR. The Integration of Eastern Europe has failed  The biggest failure in the past 30 years of European integration is related to the enlargement policy of the ex-Soviet countries. This policy, essentially driven by the greed of Western European companies (and beyond), was ... Read