Abstracts and more

  • pic GEAB 119 Petroyuan and Saudi Arabia: From the temptation of the US “Military QE” to the creation of a Middle East 3.0 November 2017 - End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich countries The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all approaching a slowdown in bond buyback. In Europe, Draghi has repeated it over and over again[1]: the Central Bank cannot do everything and therefore structural reforms of the euro are urgently needed. This is the context is which the term of “fiscal QE”[2] was coined, aimed at allowing the financing of infrastructure via a strengthening of fiscal policies at ... Read
  • geab 118 pic Global Systemic Crisis / End of 2017: High turbulence zone! Finance – Freedom – Security – Kaliningrad: Avoid the Third World War now! October 2017 - More than three years after the Ukraine-related Euro-Russian catastrophe, there is no hope of an end to this crisis. On the contrary, the tension inexorably keeps climbing: Donbass still at war, annexation of Crimea by Russia not recognised by the international community,… the eyes are now turning to the Baltic Sea where demonstrations of military testosterone is progressing well on both sides of the new iron curtain[1]. Not far from Gdansk, the former Danzig, whose corridor contributed to the outbreak of the Second World War, another corridor is now the object of all desire and may become a trigger of nothing less than a Third World War: the corridor, or the triangle, of Suwalki. Figure 1 – The triangle of Suwalki. Source: Strafor 2015 Kaliningrad and territorial integrities  Since 2004 ... Read
  • pic GEAB 117 Western Systemic Crisis 2017-2019 – The Almighty dollar against the Great Petro-Yuan Temptation September 2017 - Qatar, North Korea, the Baltic Sea, risk of a World War III… and all the military ranting mentioned in the media lately, are issues going hand in hand with the programmed and imminent advent of the catastrophic scenario for the dollar as a unique world reference currency: the Petro-Yuan will be in place at the end of the year. More than a petro-currency, it will be a petro-gas-gold-currency! The West is thus preparing to switch to total anachronism with this founding act of the 21st century multipolar world. 2014-2017: here we are, at the end of a three-year exacerbation period of tensions on all front lines (West against the rest of the world) and we are witnessing the up-coming end of the dollar’s reign over the world and over all ... Read
  • geab 116 pic 2019 / Brexit: Towards the reintegration of the new UK into a new Europe June 2017 - Our loyal readers will not have been surprised by the result of Theresa May’s early election. Not only had we put in perspective a defeat of Theresa May, despite the favourable outcome given to her by the polls; but, from Greece to the United Kingdom, we keep repeating that there is no exit from Europe, only some redefinition shocks… for better or for worse. If the Greek crisis proved the need to change Europe, the Brexit opened the possibility for it. For a year or so it was difficult to know what salad dressing we were going to get: would it be the British mint sauce (taking us to a new alliance of nations) or the mustard sauce of the mainland (upholding the Unionist principles, but regaining control of the ... Read
  • pic geab 115 Economics: Good news will be pouring! The French presidential election at the heart of a European takeover of the media narrative May 2017 - The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the country opposed the war in Iraq. And yet, just when we think that the influence of this country was dead and buried, the French presidential election of 2017 gets international attention rarely equalled; a sign that the insignificant France is perhaps not so insignificant when it runs the risk of electing a far-right president into the heart of Europe. But the verdict has fallen and the world can now breathe again[1]: although France is the Western country to have suffered the most from terrorism in recent years, the French have resisted the sirens of xenophobia and retreat, by rejecting the ... Read
  • geab 114 pic Global Systemic Crisis 2017-2021 – A phase of chaotic recomposition of the World: national re-landing, crash or rebound? April 2017 - This expression “chaotic recomposition” seems best to summarise the phase where we currently are with regards to the development of the crisis, a step indicated here as extending over four years and which will include distinct progression phases. It is quite clear that efforts to reorganise the world on a transnational logic have all failed in this first half of 2017: . The inter-or supranational system built in the 20th century (UN, IMF, WB, NATO, etc.) failed to adapt and to oversee the new multipolar geopolitical configuration of the beginning of the 21st century. It is now in full slump, in all its forms, regions included (EU, Mercosur, etc.); . Promising emerging experiences at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, with the G20, the BRICS and ... Read
  • geab 113 pic Trump’s America: the lifting of the US default taboo March 2017 - Without Kissinger to negotiate the petrodollar and put the US currency back to the centre of the global game after the shock of Nixon’s announcement in 1971 to halt the convertibility of the dollar to gold, the greenback would never have been the world benchmark since more than 40 years. Will Trump really know how to surround himself with advisers of the same calibre? Also, will he take their advice? Because a shock of the same magnitude is currently in gestation: it is called ‘payment default’ of the US public debt. It is the taboo which was lifted by the election of Trump. So, will it be a self-fulfilling prophecy or healthy debate? A solution or a total disaster? The unthinkable sovereign default  If there is a country on this ... Read
  • pic geab.eu Global statistical dislocation: the multiplication of tools for measuring economic reality February 2017 - Within the global systemic crisis that we are now experiencing, our experts have been talking for some years about “statistical fog” to qualify the inability of today’s tools to measure real economy, or even the way to manipulate them in order to match results to the political speech (or vice versa). Leaving aside the temptation to manipulate, this “statistical fog” also derives from the fact that the economy is evolving profoundly, and yesterday’s indicators (GDP, unemployment, etc.) are no longer relevant in today’s world. After a few vain attempts to transform these old time indicators, we are able to see new initiatives which we anticipate to be sustainable this time, and which in the short term will form some confusion before harmonizing themselves by 2025, pushed by international bodies such ... Read
  • pic GEAB 111 Money, Finance, Europe, Democracy, Geopolitical Configuration: the GEAB bulletin’s 35 trends January 2017 - Every year, LEAP/E2020 is offering you a short overview of the up and down[1] trends of the year which is starting. In addition to the intellectual interest of this contribution of LEAP/E2020, which of course reflects many of our researchers’ analyses over the past few months, it aims at providing a better perception of priorities within the news, at the same time conveying tracks of recommendations. This list can thus help very concretely the GEAB reader to get prepared for the year to come. With an eleven-year success rate ranging from 69% to 85%, this annual anticipation is a very concrete decision-making tool for the next twelve months. The following 35 Trends highlighted here after are related to the following ten Very Wide Trends for 2017: . The consequences of ... Read
  • pic110 Demon-etisation: India opens with a fanfare the ball of the fiscal QEs December 2016 - Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the Indian government is trying to reintegrate into the official economy the state’s gigantic parallel (or black or more simply the archaic) economy. In a nation where 90% of the transactions are made in cash, a huge part of the financial activity escapes the knowledge of the central government, and therefore statistics, taxes and infrastructure financing. Blue: volume; red: value. Source: Bloomberg. Warning signs There is nothing new in the fact that the central government tries to force its population to declare their wealth. For example, between 1951 and ... Read