GEAB N°2 – Contents

1- March 20-26, 2006 – Release of major world crisis: « The End of the Western World we have known since 1945 »

We estimate to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20 to 6, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of comparable scope to the 1929 crisis. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020… (pages 2 et 3)
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2- The seven facets of the world crisis in gestation

The American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis seven sectoral crises affecting the whole planet in the political, economic, financial and probably military fields: loss of confidence in the Dollar, explosion of the US financial imbalances, oil crisis, end of the global US leadership, distrust towards the Arab-Muslim world, inefficiency of the global governance, and uncertainties about the European governance … (pages 4 à 7)

3- Euroland facing a Dollar plunge

The world crisis anticipated for the end of March 2006 will provide a test for the Euroland and determine the sustainability of its currency. The Dollar plunge will put upward pressure on the Euro against all other currencies (the Chinese currency in particular). This situation will result in the immediate and significant fall of the competitiveness of European companies exporting towards the Dollar zone, with a negative impact on European exportations and an immediate aggravation of unemployment in the Euro zone. Facing such a situation, the temptation will be strong for some countries to get away from the Euro. But … (pages 8 et 9)

4- The future of the EU constitutional project: Analysis of the converging capacity among the various institutional players

The internal difficulties of the member-states in continuing the European constitutional project were detailed in GEAB Nr1. This month LEAP/E2020 undertakes to analyse the converging capacity on this subject of the various institutional players. It is indeed one of the three requirements identified in this field… (pages 9 et 10)

5- GlobalEurometre

This month’s three indicators of the GlobalEurometre: Tide-Action, Tide-Legitimacy and Tide-Governance (page 11)