Lack of anticipation, strategic errors, political weakness: The Russian bear is now fully awake


” Weapons and men are gathering around this region: Americans, Canadians, British, French, Danish, Germans on one side; Belarusians, Russians, Moldavians, Kazakh, and even Chinese on the other. And since the Russian exercise, Zapad 2017, and the Russian-Chinese exercise in the Baltic Sea, Maritime Cooperation-2017[1], the EU has reasons to worry about an escalation that would become uncontrollable, posing the risk that the smallest incident triggers a war with all the characteristics of a world war, given the protagonists involved[2].

Therefore, it is absolutely imperative that something is done to end the sequence of events currently leading to this strategic trap. The integration of the Baltic countries was an error; they should have been given special statutes giving rise to a Euro-Russian dialogue instead. The integration of the Baltic countries into NATO was even worse, inevitably shaking Russia. In 2008, the US plan to install an anti-missile shield in this region began to erode the cordial relations that the EU and Russia were attempting to establish, despite the two previous errors (in particular, it is following this decision that Vladimir Putin decided to end the story of the special statute for the Kaliningrad Oblast which was to become a sort of Russian Hong Kong). The European refusal to negotiate its economic partnership with Ukraine in a tripartite format (EU, Ukraine, Russia) is a major historical fault, inevitably leading to the division of Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea by Russia.

The Russian bear is now fully awake and the EU can now cry in front of its strategic weakness, the hardening of the NATO-American claw in its neck, the disintegration of its entire Eastern flank (as anticipated in 2014 in these pages) … being at the mercy of a US plane flying too close to a Russian territory, or a missile penetrating too deep into the European ground to see the great military-diplomatic machine dragging the continent and the world into catastrophe[3]… This is a short excerpt. Don’t miss the entire report in the GEAB 118 / Oct 2017

[1]    Source: Tass, 17/09/2017
[2]    NATO is not left behind in the region: missions like Baltops or even Saber Strike were set up in those Baltic regions.
[3]    For example, the interception of the Russian Defence Minister’s plane over the Baltic Sea and the way Russian air force reacted. Source: Le Temps, 23/06/2017


The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin / GEAB – your crisis time companion !