In the face of some rather worrying indicators in recent months, we have got to the point of asking ourselves the question of the likelihood of a return of European wars looking out to 2020. Actually, it’s not because our team continues to see the crisis’ exit tracks falling into place, that it doesn’t keep watch over the remaining obstacles on the path to these exits; obstacles which to us seem to be of two kinds essentially :
. first, the efforts of the world before’s masters to keep control, anachronistic conflicts and rooted in the past, caused by increasingly isolated, but also increasingly aggressive powers, amongst whose number there remains especially, but not only, the US military ;
. second, what are the « natural » sparks, likely to give birth to enormous friction between tectonic plates, the best image evoking the geopolitical rebalancing underway.
Summary of the article :
- Perspectives : NATO, the IMF, divisions, Grexit… Looking out to 2020: the return of European wars ?
- Telescope : 2015-2020 – The wide-reaching isolation of « hard line America »
- Focus : Greek crisis : the temptation to close the door on the IMF
Our team has decided this month to make public the chapter called : “Greek crisis : the temptation to close the door on the IMF”
Greek crisis : the temptation to close the door on the IMF
To believe our media, it would seem that the whole world is hanging onto the Greek agreement sought by the EU, the ECB and the IMF. Between sudden developments and stalemate the tension is rising and from now on a Greek payment default isn’t excluded. Cataclysm or opportunity?
Greece will stay in the Eurozone
As we have always said, and continue to say, Greece will stay in the Eurozone. It’s strange that, until just recently, all the media associated default and Grexit. This time has passed : the two problems are henceforth clearly separated, as they should be, and it’s a sign that Greece will keep the single currency. Whether it defaults is a possibility on the other hand. And if it’s the case, this will be a deliberate default, organized and even planned, between Europeans. The Greek case hasn’t been under the global microscope for the last six years for the outcome of the crisis to happen in an unexpected fashion.
Besides we are seeing the Eurozone being taken in hand politically, with Merkel and Hollande who want a “strengthening of the Eurozone”  with Juncker who is breathing life into a new political energy and, with Sigmar Gabriel (the German Vice Chancellor) and Emmanuel Macron (the French Minister of the Economy) who are demanding a “radical integration” of the Eurozone. Clearly, all this isn’t very compatible with a disorderly Greek exit from the Eurozone. Neither Juncker nor Tsipras, who have been struggling for months to get an agreement, expect a Grexit. A Grexit which is only a fantasy of the financial markets and the media.
The IMF : a thorn in the European Foot
Certainly, this Grexit had been sought, deliberately or not, by some players in the poker game currently being played, and particularly the