Category: anticipation
In the middle of a storm, it is difficult to keep one’s eyes on the horizon. Instead, you see the sky pitching, you hear the sails slamming, you get the spray in your face, everyone screams their fears and angers, and this translates in losing one’s grounding. This is how we should understand the uproar […]
The historic event of this summer is of course the withdrawal from Afghanistan, a withdrawal in which no one seemed to really believe, despite the decisions taken a year and a half earlier[1]… No one except France, which withdrew its troops last May[2]… proving everything was well planned after all. This event is important enough […]
The Espana 2050[1] project, presented by the Sanchez government on the 20th of May, brings together, in the form of 9 challenges, 50 objectives and 200 proposals,[2] a set of reform measures in the fields of education, healthcare, taxes, employment, pensions and environment, setting out the framework for a 30-year national strategy for Spain.[3] Produced […]
Integration of an open foresight approach into the decision-making process, willingness to involve citizens to it, visionary and ambitious strategies… what’s happening to the European Commission?!! Our junior team immersed itself in a series of reports published over the last few months and interviewed one European official to try to get a clearer picture. Their […]
The prospects for social reorganisation that can be imagined from the current health crisis are enormous. We have, therefore, decided to focus on Europe, about which we are much more certain than we are about the rest of the world. But certain trends of transformation will be the same everywhere. Governance: strengthening regional and global […]
There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]
There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 in Maastricht), the upcoming elections will seal the vision it has held for 27 years. And this is not an anticipation! We reiterate that the […]
The financial crisis followed by the debt crisis has led to a substantial change in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) and to more political provisions. The ECB has acquired implicit mandates to safeguard the euro but also an economic policy which all go far beyond the original objective of price stability. The […]
This anticipation is not very original but it must nevertheless be faced with all the lucidity required. It is hardly a hypothesis, but rather a certainty: the allied European far rights will constitute the most consistent and therefore powerful parliamentary group in the next European Parliament, whatever their results in the previous national elections. What […]
Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration vitally requires a profound change of the EU. The United States, structural associate of the European project since its origin – but mostly since the […]
A long time ago, in 1998, Franck Biancheri, our regretfully departed director of studies, signed an anticipatory article entitled: « 2009, when Europe ends up in the hands of the grandsons of Hitler, Pétain, Mussolini… ». This is the fate he anticipated for the EU in case it failed to democratize. The failure is a patent […]
The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992. This excerpt evokes the importance for the EU’s endowing with a forecasting capacity to adapt its governance to the challenges of its reopening to […]
The corona crisis has been the trigger for the EU to finally start issuing common bonds. It was a modest and hard-won step forward. In the midst of the flames, the fire brigade still took 5 days to decide to bring out the big fire hose. That says a lot about the degree of divisions […]
Dear Readers, In this time of crisis, many people are thinking about the solutions needed in order to get out of it and create a new world. Since 2008, the GEAB team has demonstrated its capacity, and therefore its credentials, to anticipate events and the systemic crisis. We are now inviting you to become part […]
For the past few weeks, the planet has been in a state of emergency; people are locked into their homes and the economy is in a state of hibernation. As stated in last month’s GEAB, our team sees this as part of the transition towards the “world after” and it is significant that the event […]
While the need for the digitalisation of the international monetary system described earlier is being reinforced by the financial crisis triggered by the pandemic, one finds in many articles on this topic the same fixed idea: allowing the world to bypass the American system of sanctions.[1] Indeed, these digital currency projects do not date back […]
“In 2020, a global pandemic called COVID-19 brought the world economy to a virtual standstill for several months. To contain the epidemic, governments had to take radical measures to contain populations, reducing activity to the essentials: health, food and certain basic services (telecommunications, water, electricity, financial systems, etc.). It was during these few weeks of […]
Political anticipation is LEAP’s method of “rationalisation of the future”.[1] In fact, it is very close to the “historical method” [2] in the sense that it is accessible to all and aids the social actor in adapting to the complex world which constitutes his new environment. Because of this, its practitioners have often been defined […]