She is the muse of American youth, as well as European (and not just English-speaking) and, of course, global youth. Her videos have hundreds of millions of views, her albums have topped the box-office charts (and have done so for more than a decade), she is one of the biggest contributors to the recording industry […]
More than 30,000 civilians have been killed in the ongoing Israeli attack on Gaza[1], yet every ceasefire resolution at the UN Security Council continues to be blocked by US veto, while the General Assembly condemns the Israeli bombardment of Gaza by an unprecedented majority. The history of the UN Security Council itself demonstrates the dysfunctionality […]
Impossible relaunch of the European defence industry, political and social confrontations, strategic disagreements, diplomatic differences… “Until now, Europe has been built out of crises”. This has been a historically verifiable motto. The conflict in Ukraine, however, will be the crisis that proves this motto wrong, and even brings the edifice crashing down on itself. The […]
As we diligently observe the geopolitical shifts in our world each month, the analysis of futuristic city projects and new urban developments proves to be exceptionally revealing. Like dreams, these projects unveil our hopes and fears, ultimately reflecting the visions of perfect, celestial, or ideal cities that their sponsors aspire to create. In embracing this […]
Geopolitics: Asymmetrical Recomposition 1 – American election fog disrupts global visibility The fog surrounding the American elections is disrupting global visibility. What will this lack of visibility mean for the outcome of the American election? Claiming to be the world’s leading democracy, the US political system has always been fine-tuned, and for decades, like clockwork: […]
“Be greedy when others are fearful”[1] The great feature of 2024 is its jam-packed electoral calendar. This year, almost three billion people will be voting in 76 countries, including major ones like India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Algeria, Rwanda and, of course, the United States. All these countries find themselves in a […]
By January 1st, 2024, Argentina was expected to become a member of the BRICS bloc, alongside Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates[1]. However, Milei’s election as President abruptly reversed the country’s diplomatic trajectory, with a very marked pro-American shift, embodied in the desire to dollarise the economy. Such a choice implies […]
Similar to the gradual movement of continents, the reshaping of the global order is a protracted and gradual phenomenon when examined on a monthly scale. While marked by intense clashes that give rise to mountain ranges and definitive separations resulting in straits, seas, or oceans, geopolitical plate tectonics unfolds over an extended period. Between the […]
The conflict will be resolved in the short term and will allow the region to integrate and open up to all its potential. This is what we presented last month, in line with our work on the future of the Middle East over the last seventeen years. This scenario stays solid, we think. However, it […]
Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]
Forests are far more than just verdant scenery. They are essential ecosystems, hubs of biodiversity, with a pivotal role in upholding ecological equilibrium and sustaining human existence. Among their myriad advantages, three significant roles are prominent: the stabilisation of soil, the preservation of drinking water and, maybe the most important one, forests are the lungs […]
Logically, the international governance invented by the West after two world wars to create the conditions for peace was based on the defence of weak players (Palestinians, Armenians, Saharawis, etc.) against strong players (Israel, Azerbaijan, Morocco, etc.). It is morally undeniable that a peace system is designed to curb the expansionist ambitions of those who […]
The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]
The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the traditional conservative right is living out its final hours, at least as an autonomous political force. This is due to the very strong polarisation of […]
Everyone knows that what doesn’t bend, breaks[1]. This is the short-term threat to the European Union’s economy. The supranational operation of its institutions is inflexible, and in the international economic competition in which it has found itself, it is up against much more agile competitors. At present, a fall in living standards, fuelled by inflation[2] […]
The diplomatic return revealed a clear advantage for the Global South in the concert of nations, marked by the BRICS summit in the first place, announcing an expansion to six new countries: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia, Iran and Argentina[1]. This decision demonstrates the confidence these countries have in their own […]
To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]
From agriculture and printing press to the Internet, all technological advances have had socio-economic consequences, leading to profound changes in society. Easy access to the power of artificial intelligence will be no exception. This revolution concerns higher education graduates, who will be the first victims of the automation of work. This will increase several types […]