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Category: oil

Petroyuan and Saudi Arabia: From the temptation of the US “Military QE” to the creation of a Middle East 3.0

The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world’s powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia […]

Global Systemic Crisis / End of 2017: High turbulence zone! Finance – Freedom – Security – Kaliningrad: Avoid the Third World War now!

More than three years after the Ukraine-related Euro-Russian catastrophe, there is no hope of an end to this crisis. On the contrary, the tension inexorably keeps climbing: Donbass still at war, annexation of Crimea by Russia not recognised by the international community,… the eyes are now turning to the Baltic Sea where demonstrations of military […]

2018-2020, Airbnb and others: End of the gold rush, possible turning point

The “peer-to-peer economy” has increased extensively and suffered transformations due to the development of giant commercial players such as Airbnb. The growth of this tourist property-renting website between individuals is indeed quite impressive. Figure 1 – Number of travellers who use Airbnb each summer, 2010-2015. Source: Airbnb. Despite this dizzying curve as well as the […]

Western Systemic Crisis 2017-2019 – The Almighty dollar against the Great Petro-Yuan Temptation

Qatar, North Korea, the Baltic Sea, risk of a World War III… and all the military ranting mentioned in the media lately, are issues going hand in hand with the programmed and imminent advent of the catastrophic scenario for the dollar as a unique world reference currency: the Petro-Yuan will be in place at the […]

Questions about the future / Balkans: a new Euro-Russian bridge or firebrand? 

Regarding the latest events occurring in the Balkans, the Westerners seem to be winning the game against Russia. Thus, in Macedonia the new government of Zoran Zaev is not far from finding a solution on the dispute which opposed it to Greece and blocked its candidacies for NATO and the EU[1]; Montenegro joined NATO on […]

Eurozone – Sovereign Bonds Backed Securities: Possible precedent or alternative for the EuroBonds?

To strengthen the eurozone, the European Commission has just launched the idea of creating products backed by European sovereign debt, a proposal which could be more an alternative than a precedent for the Eurobonds. On May 31, 2017, the European Commission presented its analysis on the “deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union”[1], which had […]

The rupture of Western information systems: How to survive “informationally” speaking?

Since the Second World War, the moral domination of the West over the rest of the world has been largely based on the undeniable quality of its media, guarantors of representative information of world realities and public debates concerning them. This is not to idealise a system of course far from perfect, but to remember […]

Economics: Good news will be pouring! The French presidential election at the heart of a European takeover of the media narrative

The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the country opposed the war in Iraq. And yet, just when we think that the influence of this country was dead and buried, the French presidential […]

2017-2020 / Euro crisis: A compromise solution for a non-democratic Euroland

In the GEAB no 109 of November 2016 we wondered if “the euro would survive beyond the year 2017”. Five months later, we wish to deepen and complete our analysis. One reason for the weakness of the euro comes from the political anaemia of the euro zone, which is ultimately far too un-integrated to afford […]

Post-Brexit: European schemes of dismemberment of the City of London

The tiny financial centres of the Eurozone have been rubbing their hands since the British chose to leave the EU, positioning themselves in order to recuperate significant market shares of the City’s activity. A recent study made by the Brussels think-tank Bruegel proposes two scenarios of possible gains for a number of financial centres, depending […]

A political anticipation calendar of future events: February-May 2017

February 15-16 / Astana: Next round of peace talks on Syria The peace in Syria initiative launched by Russia, Turkey and Iran in the wake of the December 29 ceasefire agreement continues. The capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, will be hosting a new meeting on February 15 and 16, to which the United States, the United […]

Global statistical dislocation: the multiplication of tools for measuring economic reality

Within the global systemic crisis that we are now experiencing, our experts have been talking for some years about “statistical fog” to qualify the inability of today’s tools to measure real economy, or even the way to manipulate them in order to match results to the political speech (or vice versa). Leaving aside the temptation […]

The EU: Sailing in a raging storm with no navigation equipment

The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992. This excerpt evokes the importance for the EU’s endowing with a forecasting capacity to adapt its governance to the challenges of its reopening to […]

Insurance sector: Questioning of the economic model

Everyone remembers the images picturing floods, hail storms, mudslides, tornadoes and other disasters that have swept Europe, Germany, France, and Belgium recently, but also those of other continents (America, Australia, and Canada, where huge fires are still raging in Alberta). The estimated damage is reported to be in billions of Euros: 1.4 billion estimated in […]

Angry nations, democratic challenges, global systemic crisis – Balkanization and returning empires in Central and Eastern Europe: the drama of the failure of European integration and of the Euro-Russian crisis

In 2014, our team anticipated the disintegration of the Eastern European flank following the conflict between the EU and Russia. Two years later, the damage has become visible. If Europe and Russia fail to renew any dialogue, the worst is yet to come in this part of Europe, a region where old demons are in […]

Petro-Euro, money-debt, banking crisis, real economy: ten years to seal the fate of an economic-financial system

Precisely ten years ago (to the day), in its second bulletin of February 2006[1], warning about the imminent explosion of a «global systemic crisis”, the GEAB based its opinion on the identification of two strong signs: the end of the publication of the M3 money supply indicator[2] (suggesting a start to unusual degrees of the […]

2017, International Monetary System: returning to a fixed exchange rate regime

The petrodollar system has been in agony for several years now. We wrote in our GEAB No. 100 that our team’s belief was that we were about to live through the final collapse of this system in 2016. Since it is the pillar of the current international monetary order, its fall will allow (even force) […]

2016 – Red alert on the dollar, financial crisis, oil, banks… General strategic retreat in the perspective of an imminent “hard landing”

Our team has chosen to place 2016 under the sign of a “general strategic retreat”, affecting all levels of social organization, starting of course with the national levels, but not only. This retreat (or fallback) will not yet represent in 2016 the end of the global mobility, of the international exchanges or of the internet, […]