UK’s Referendum, a prerequisite to restarting Europe (excerpt of the GEAB 102 / Febr. 2016)

referendum

This text is an excerpt of our GEAB bulletin No 102 / February 2016. For a real-time reading of our analyses, please subscribe to the GEAB.

Since the United Kingdom joined the European Community in 1973, according to the exorbitant terms that we know for Europe[1], its leaders have renewed, ad nauseam, Margaret Thatcher’s strategy based on the following idea: “You need us, but we do not want you, so you do as we say”. Yet, what was true in 1973, and what was experienced during a glorious period in the 90s, is no longer the case today.

In fact, it is precisely the UK’s attitude toward the continent which ended up crushing the springs of the aforementioned strategy. By maintaining Euro-scepticism within its public opinion, by staying away from all strong European integration projects (Schengen, eurozone, etc.), the United Kingdom has isolated itself from the continent … to the point of directing the US interest to more promising areas in terms of continental influence, to the very heart of the continent, such as the Baltic States or Poland.

Feeling abandoned, particularly since the beginning of the global systemic crisis, by its main transatlantic sponsor, the United Kingdom is struggling to control the continent without having any foothold there, to protect the interests of the City by remaining master of the European financial markets, to maintain its sterling pound while ruling the euro … somehow doing permanent and large splits.

Meanwhile, the continent, being itself in crisis and refocusing on its real strengths, manages to keep away all possible “troublemakers”, and the United Kingdom is clearly an obstacle to the implementation of the needed reforms for the reorganization of the continent: tax reform, governance of the eurozone, banking reform …

Yet, the UK’s blocking ability is being attacked from all sides. For instance, the ECON Committee (Economic and Monetary Affairs … thus, the eurozone) was chaired by a Britain during the previous European parliamentary term. It is now chaired by a parliament member of the eurozone, an Italian, by the way (giving, incidentally, a huge Italian influence on the eurozone, between Draghi and Gualtieri …).

The project of the banking reform, launched by Michel Barnier in January 2014, supposedly involving 33 European banks, will be applied only to three banks in the end, two of them being French, following a domino effect of several national divestitures … inaugurated, of course, by the United Kingdom[2].

Regarding the tax reform, it is now written in black and white that nothing can be done until the UK’s referendum is held[3].

Viewed this way, it is not surprising that the continent is trying to accelerate the date of the referendum. Whatever the outcome, the continent needs one thing: the UK to lose its blackmail lever.  If the British are in favour of the “yes” option (“REMAIN”), their elites can no longer invoke their Euro-scepticism to continue to benefit from exceptional measures; if they say “no” (“LEAVE”), the UK is consequently “out”.

Viewed in this light, it is not surprising either that Cameron’s negotiations, even if they ultimately prove to be successful[4], constantly face inadmissibility[5]… except when they help nourish the discourse with reform imperatives, a discourse very well shared, needless to say, but not within the British terms.

Nowadays, Cameron’s last ally in his negotiations appears to be neither more nor less than… President Duda’s Poland, in exchange for a “NATO-isation” alliance of the European limes (border defence), and that says it all… [6]

The terms of the last blackmail salvo

The Brexit blackmail is the absolute climax of the UK’s isolation in the framework of a dislocating European Union, but also in a changing globalized world, attempting to restructure itself around some integrated geostrategic poles[7].

In a letter dated November 10, 2015, David Cameron sent to Donald Tusk (President of the European Council) the list of all claims with the conditions for the maintenance of the United Kingdom in the European Union, pointing out that if the EU responded favourably to his claims, he obviously would commit to support the remaining of the United Kingdom in the EU[8].

Briefly, here are the four claims he presented:

– on the economic governance of the EU and the eurozone (questioning the principle of the single currency as it was noted in the Treaty of Lisbon; subordination of the eurozone to the single market, co-decision of the non-member states of the eurozone in the framework of the Euroland’s decision-making process…)

– on the competitiveness (adopting the rules of the UK, known champion of competitiveness and neoliberalism, meaning deregulation of economic, financial and banking markets, in order to allow free movement of capital, goods and services);

– on the return to national sovereignty;

– on immigration (limiting free movement within the European Community and establishing rules for the prevention of any immigrant workers, including those originating from the EU, to benefit from social rights for at least four continuous years).

Clearly, the British Prime Minister has asked his 27 European partners for the impossible revision of the treaties and of the founding acts of the European integration, without any other democratic process than an exclusively UK oriented referendum, leaving accordingly one state and 60 million British citizens to decide the fate of a 28 state European Union and of 450 million Europeans[9].

Dislocation of Europe? Or is it of the UK?

Yet, how could our media even imagine that in the alleged titanic fight between the UK and Europe, the one running the risk of dislocation would be Europe?!

. Immigration, poverty, unemployment

The UK’s economic situation is so catastrophic that it became nothing more than a poor showcase of what the British Empire once was. The austerity programs as well as the budget cuts have ruined the country[10]. Economically speaking, the country is benighted, in full recession. Social inequality and poverty have never been more prevalent here, hitting a fragile social class[11] (leading hundreds of thousands of people to feed at food banks, something the UK does not even hide anymore[12]), a good leaven for nourishing communitarianism and exclusion[13].

After Germany, Britain is the second country in hosting immigrants (2013: 526,000), all attracted by the British labour market and the asylum system, as this country is seen as “heaven on earth”[14]. Half of this immigrant population comes from EU countries (the UK hosts as many Polish nationals as there are inhabitants in Cracow[15]).

fig01Figure 1: Level of foreigners, 01.01.2014 (%). Source: Eurostat

The UK endlessly accuses France, which is in Schengen, and therefore accuses the Schengen area of being behind the “clouds”[16] of migrants[17] constantly arriving on its land (mostly via the Channel Tunnel). Not being in the Schengen area, the free movement stops right at its doors and therefore it does not stop to harbour on the European continental soil, the French side, the largest camps of immigrants awaiting the first opportunity to enter the United Kingdom illegally[18].

Finally, let’s emphasize that the UK, even if it agreed in early September to support a quota of 20,000 Syrian asylum seekers for a period of 5 years[19], is not concerned about the European quota policy[20].

fig02Figure 2: Favourable countries (green) or unfavourable ones (red) to the refugee quotas. Those who have not yet voted, do not have any assigned colour. “The United Kingdom, Denmark and Ireland, which have the possibility to withdraw from the European policies related to these matters, are not concerned about this distribution”.
Source: Huffington Post, 09/10/2015.

The unemployment figures are not more reassuring: even if they are twice as low as those in France, they hide an undeclared insecurity (unemployment allowances are extremely low and provided only for six months)[21] and changes in the nature of jobs, a boost in precarious jobs, part timers, self-employed entrepreneurs and cleavage between the UK regions, with a spectacular development of the employment market in the city of London.

fig03Figure 3 – Blue: employed. Red: self-employed. Source: Flip chart fairy tales

. The rich wish to leave the boat…

As seen in the above table, the regional divisions are deepening; the country is on the verge of disintegration, for the second time now, after the Scottish referendum in 2014. Today Scotland[22], Wales, Northern Ireland[23] and the richest regions of the UK threaten to leave the UK, especially in case of a Brexit.

Even in the heart of the City, a state within a state, with the wealth of Britain, a huge financial centre relying on the vast network of tax havens formed by the former British Empire confetti, with its UK Islands and Commonwealth, knowing all this owes its survival to the fact that it is the first European tax haven escaping all regulation[24], this time is not to be euphoric, since a Brexit would ultimately not be so welcome[25] : a stab in Cameron’s back.

We have already seen in previous GEAB issues the entire territorial dislocation phenomenon at work, under the influence of centrifugal forces generated by the Scottish independence tendencies and the gigantic “devolution” process of the Kingdom[26]… “Disunited,” as we called it at the time[27].

A referendum under the form of “panico generale[28]

The promise of a referendum goes back to 2012[29]. David Cameron, the UK’s Conservative Prime Minister, promised to the extreme right wing and Eurosceptic of his (majoritarian) party a referendum on Britain’s remaining or not in the EU, aiming to counter the rise of UKIP, anti-European and xenophobic[30], now third political force on the British stage. It was a promise that would allow him especially to win again in May 2015[31], by combining part of the UKIP’s electorate (which would get, all the same, 12.7% of votes).

In December, the electoral act on the referendum received the royal seal. Ever since, destructive forces have been unleashed, within the government as well, to the point that David Cameron, to avoid chain resignations, was forced to allow his ministers to campaign for the Brexit[32], if they wanted to. And since the EU has responded to his demands, even although no date has been set yet for the referendum, the campaign seems to have begun, leaving David Cameron at the helm of a divided government[33] with whom he has to deal[34].

It is precisely in this atmosphere of generalized economic stagnation, of European crisis on the terrorism background of violence and masses of refugees waiting at the gates of the Channel Tunnel in Calais that British voters will be asked to vote on their country remaining or not in the EU, no later than the end of 2017, but something highly desired by all forces in Europe and in the UK, as early as June 2016[35].

Since November, we have already been witnessing the greatest demagogue and populist show on the future of the UK in the EU, certainly having as the main actor the UKIP, and all was under the direction of Cameron and the Tory Party. We repeat, the greatest danger of a brown Europe comes less from its extremities, walking freely with winning banners in the streets, than from the heart of its political apparatus, capable of anything to avoid losing power. In Great Britain, Cameron and the Tory Party are far more dangerous manipulators than Nigel Farage, especially when we know what contrary financial interests support them and to which they owe obedience[36].

The bankruptcy of the English governance based on a system more obsolete than our continental political ones, because it refused to dock with the emerging democracy in Europe, will lead to its loss[37].

With a usual “Divide in order to rule” and the application of the sacrosanct “Market Law” the current powers try again and again to enjoy the disintegration of possible internal or external opposition forces to the accustomed system[38].

On the margins of the EU and the world[39]

The English blackmail has not just started today[40]. Since the UK joined the European Union (January 1st, 1973), European countries and institutions have lived with a sword of Damocles over their heads. Blackmail after blackmail, slowing any progress of the European integration process, mostly political and democratic integration, the UK was granted a particular regime paved with opting-outs and financial concessions. Every British government, whether Tory[41] or Labour[42], was stamped with its mark.

Being neither in Euroland (fortunately!) nor in Schengen, and after having rejected the economic and monetary Europe and any process of integration and solidarity between Member States, the marginalization of the UK over the past five years has been accelerated. Thanks to David Cameron’s work for five years now, knowing he was continuously threatening with the Brexit since his first term in 2010, and thanks to his predecessor, Tony Blair, Bush’s “poodle”, and to the City of London, which has done everything to destroy the project of the Euroland, the UK is isolated now, without hope of any help, either from Europe, from the United States or from the rest of the world.

. Brexit, a non-event in Europe

 Tired of always hearing the same speech and facing the same blackmail coming from the head of a state which is not even in Europe anymore, all Europeans have left Cameron[43], finding within the same initial movement that the UK’s claims were totally unacceptable[44]. The sixteen page compromise, presented on February 2 within the preparation of the next EU summit, did nothing but underline even more the isolation of the UK from its European partners and the strengthening of the integrated intra-community zones (Eurozone – Visegrad Group, Schengen …)[45] .

On the continent at least, being forced to get along with our neighbours, the borders, or rather the lack of borders, increased the European integration. The UK’s fourth claim, concerning the regulation of freedom of movement and the right to suspend the social benefits to all workers coming from the EU, was at first stonewalled  by everybody, and should now be subject to a joint position of the Visegrad Group[46]. We have already pointed out that half of the immigrants working in the UK are coming from Eastern Europe.

Cameron’s European tour, which took place earlier this year, was a fiasco. None of his traditional allies came close to him, neither Germany, even if he called for Angela Merkel’s help[47], nor Poland, nor Orban’s Hungary (who reminded him that the Hungarians were not migrants but European citizens free to move and work within the EU[48]), or even the Nordic countries[49], let alone the South of  Europe.

fig04Figure 4 – The map of the EU countries according to the UK’s claims. Source: Voxeurope

. Structural weakening of the British diplomacy

Even within the European institutions, still marked by the disastrous management of Barroso’s Commission and Lady Ashton’s politics and European diplomacy, blindly submitted to the defence of American politico-financial interests which led the EU to the war in Ukraine, to break ties with Russia, to the NATO-isation of Eastern Europe, to support anti-democratic powers and supply terrorist forces in the Middle East … the loss of influence of the UK is striking.

The figures speak for themselves: today, only 4.3% of the European work force is British – so even below the Greek representation – and this is an aging workforce, having no continuity assured, unlike State members such as France, Germany or even Romania.

200520062007200820092010201120122015
144914521417136213401296117510941000
+3-35-55-22-44-121-81-94 (4,3%)

Figure 5 – Number of UK nationals working for the European Commission[50], 2005-2012 (“permanent officials and temporary agents”) – Source: FCO, in Foreign Affairs Committee, First Report of Session 2013-14, The future of the European Union: UK Government policy, HC 87-II, Ev 90.

This marginalization is to such extent that not even European diplomats wish to show up, in public, alongside David Cameron. Nobody knows where the reopening of the treaties could lead, especially since the loss of influence of the United Kingdom will only worsen[51]. The same marginalization is reflected on the international stage: until recently, the UK, an armed wing of the United States and of the Commonwealth, was opening an opportunity to enter, via Britain, the general European economic and financial market and find within the UK a loyal and steadfast servant to all expansionist causes.

Yet, it is not only Europe and the world which have changed. The UK also has adapted in some ways. In particular, it made a very appropriate strategic turnaround of the US to China and to the multi-polar world in general, its capital, London, being very representative, since its financial centre, the City, managed so well to adopt the yuan and the Sukuks, as we have already seen. The renegotiation of the terms of the relationship between the UK and Europe is also something to note within this global systemic transformation.

. The great decoupling from the United States: the UK has ceased to be the “hub” of the Americans

The crisis brought to the borders of the European continent (Ukraine, Turkey) moved the centre of gravity of the US interventionism. Moreover, the fact that Britain is an island and has long claimed its isolationism, having excluded itself from Schengen and the Eurozone, keeps it away from the new European integration forces. All these become key elements, pushing the USA to play on the European continent, using new warlike means (army[52], NATO …), and with new partners in Eastern Europe, particularly in the Baltic Area which served so well in the past the cause of another war (not colder) against Russia.

Ironically, Brexit would also have the unfortunate consequence of leaving the UK outside the TTIP treaty, while the United States hopes, in one way or another, to conclude with the EU, even if the road is so long and hard[53].

. Dislocation of the Commonwealth – End of the “Gateway to Europe”[54]

The rise of the BRICS countries has moved the axis of geostrategic economic and political interests of the Commonwealth countries. A relic of the world before[55], the Commonwealth will probably not resist much longer to global geopolitical dislocation. Whether Canada, a member of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), or New Zealand and Australia, partners of the recent TPP (which may well serve the Australian dollar), or South Africa or India[56] (both BRICS members), all these States are driven to other emerging integration forces that are part of the world today, including Euroland[57].

The Brexit would deprive the UK’s partners of an entry door into a free trade zone, free of all taxes, and would force them to renegotiate new treaties with the EU, a bad plan for them, certainly, but very bad also for the UK, and even for the EU[58].

. Chinese new hub? The new golden age of the City?

China has all interests in holding reserves in another exchange currency, like the pound, against the rise of the Euro and the fall of the dollar, thus promoting the internationalization of its own currency. It encourages the City as an independent stock and financial market, competitive for other European and global markets. London was the first in Europe to sign a series of agreements with Beijing, and today it is the first stage at the European (even global) level in terms of transactions. The position of the City has been reinforced by the recent visit of the Chinese president in London, confirmed by the emergence of a “golden age” between London and Beijing, providing a financial windfall in London through a series of trade and investments agreements signed in October 2015. Chinese investments in the UK have increased by 85% within less than 5 years[59].

Yet, none of this would actually support the idea that China would prefer a Brexit, especially if the majority of the traders flee to other areas[60].

Nonetheless, Brexit is not on the agenda

Our team has always maintained that for the structural, political and economic reinforcement of the European Union, it was absolutely necessary to end the British blackmail, even if that implied the UK being kicked out. All conditions seem to be in place, at last, to achieve such an outcome. Explosion of migration, difficulties in the eurozone, continental political crisis: a quite unattractive image of the EU today, knowing the articles, pictures, TV news, and videos on the net (simply go to the English media to see it for yourselves), and bets[61], public opinion is definitely nurtured with fear – fear of immigrants, fear of terrorism, fear of stealing social allowances, and consequently, stealing the British finance (because of porous borders in Europe, of lax rule of free movement of workers in Europe and of the principle of equal treatment of all EU citizens…) – fear digging the perfect riverbed for Europhobia, and therefore for Brexit. Europe provides no miracle solutions to past dreams of this bygone empire,[62] could we say. The polls are tightening, and some give the Brexit nine points ahead[63], already giving the Brexit camp a taste of victory.

fig06Figure 6 – Referendum Vote Intention Polls. Source: What UK thinks[64]

Nevertheless, when asking those from various socio-professional categories, many are in favour of maintaining the UK in the EU, should we ask business managers[65] (recalling the huge leap this category made in the UK’s labour force curve), farmers[66], researchers[67], academics[68], youth, women[69]

fig07Figure 7 – Source: What UK thinks

There are too many interests in the UK, Europe and worldwide related to the Brexit issue. On one side (in Europe), people discuss the necessary compromises to “save face”, to the point of agreeing on more of this Europe “à la carte”, already enjoyed by the United Kingdom[70], and on the other side, Cameron will have to agree with a minimum to weigh the balance on the remaining side in the EU[71]. Our team maintains its anticipation of the “REMAIN” victory within the referendum[72].

Anyway, the government, David Cameron in fact, has no plan B, no Brexit plan[73]. They seem even not to wish for it (in case such a thing happens, it will definitely be Europe’s fault[74]), demonstrating once more the whole vanity and emptiness of the British blackmail[75]. Moreover, if bad things happen, their European partners, heads of states and governments, as well as European institutions, will consequently be ready to leave the British boat and raise its anchor, a real revolution! [76]

The Brexit implies a huge risk of dislocation for the UK: as we have already emphasized, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are devout Europeans and fans of the euro. An exit of Great Britain from the European Union would push them to get rid of Britain and seek their own EU integration or their belonging to the eurozone.

The last actor, a major one, is the City of London. Of course, it is behind the current Brexit blackmail. It is even likely that the City signed the first two claims in David Cameron’s letter to Donald Tusk, attacking the economic and monetary union as well as the euro. But when it considers that the maximum has been done to secure its position, the City will let go and will be the first to advocate (and promote through the media) in favour of “REMAIN”[77].

What is London afraid of? Is it afraid of a super state of the Euro from which it had excluded itself? Indeed, London is the first market for the euro[78], for it processes 68% of euro transactions coming from the United States, and it is the first trade location for the yuan, thanks to its off-shore status in Europe. Would it be able to break away from that arm, losing probably its “Golden City” stronghold?[79]

As noted regularly by us, Euroland is nowadays the decision making political player in Europe. It is within Euroland that major political decisions are currently being taken, a zone reinforced by a common currency, which has taken its place in the world, behind the dollar and in front of the pound. An organization strengthened crisis after crisis, summit after summit, finding emergency solutions, able to adopt its own operating rules, driven by a Franco-German couple who speak today of economic government, growth and convergence, and of democracy, a Euroland which has rallied  the European institutions, renewed by the rising “Euro” generations (Juncker, Schulz, Tusk[80]). It is advancing in this same direction, having the same visions: a Europe in which integrated circles develop, a refounded Schengen area for better security and solidarity in Europe,  from which UK would exclude itself[81], an integrated Euroland, more democratic (finally we speak of a possible Parliament of the eurozone), more social, more supportive, a partner on the international stage, strong, a real proposing force in a changing world. As Francois Hollande puts it, “The European Union is dead, long live the eurozone.”[82]

A Brexit could therefore mean, and it would be desirable by the way, the repatriation of this platform to Frankfurt or Paris, where the euro is actually the single currency, and it would be governed by the 350 million citizens who have it in their pockets. Certainly, a Brexit might clip the wings of the European Union, but could open a door of opportunity for the Euroland[83].

Yet, even without Brexit, Cameron’s blackmail ultimately serves the Euroland as a basis for negotiation and advance with its own agenda. The endless changing European Union, with its integrated structures such as Schengen and Euroland, will no longer strengthen its own governance: the two-speed Europe[84] is now written down in all political agendas[85]. Revisions of the Lisbon Treaty and of the monetary Europe are no longer major obstacles[86], and it is even desirable to have these revisions in order to regulate the relations between Euroland and the EU states, the articulation of this constantly changing Europe, mostly because “all serious change in the eurozone requires a revision of the treaties”. [87]

It is on that basis that the compromise reached between the European Union and the UK will be negotiated. Part of the negotiation proposal presented by Donald Tusk[88] is the noted isolation of the UK in Europe, a paradoxically desired isolation by both sides and whose fate interests only bettors, speculators after all[89], and maybe also David Cameron, who hopes to enter the history books[90] for that matter. (this text was first published in the GEAB No 102/ February 2016)

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[1]     Particularly, the famous « British rebate ». Source: Wikipedia.
[2]     Source: Le Point, 02/11/2015.
[3]     This EU Insider article cannot be more explicit in this respect. Source: EUInsider, 23/06/2015.
[4]     As we can see further in this article, Cameron will have to obtain a complete success for his negotiations in order to get involved in the « REMAIN» campaign, following the requests of the City. Source: BBC, 02/02/2016.
[5]     The latest, after the European Council’s proposition replying to Cameron’s letter : François Hollande draws a red line, impossible to cross – Source: Ouest France, 03/02/2016 and the reserved reaction of Eastern Europe’s countries – Source: Handelsblatt, 04/02/2016.
[6]     Source: The Telegraph, 03/01/2016.
[7]     Anticipation which can be found in the GEAB n°60 of December 15, 2011 : Global Systemic Crisis – USA 2012/2016: An insolvent and ungovernable country – From the non-dislocation of the Euroland to the dislocation of the UK.
[8]     David Cameron’s letter to Donald Tusk on the British Government website (10/11/2015).
[9]     « Stop the British blackmail! » Source: Libération, 16/12/2015.
[10]   Source: Financial News 06/02/2016.
[11]   Source: Independent, 10/03/2015.
[12]   Source: Independent, 02/01/2016.
[13]   According to the « red doors » scandal – Source: The Guardian 20/01/2016.
[14]   Sources : France TV Info, 31/07/2015, BBC, 07/07/2015 : « Britain says, ‘We don’t want immigrants,’ but does nothing to prevent the black economy » and concerning the asylum rights Eurostat, 2014.
[15]   Source: Daily Mail, 01/12/2014.
[16]   Source: France TV Info, 29/07/2015.
[17]   In January 2016, as many as 4,000 people were waiting in Calais to « cross » toward the UK – Source: RTBF, 21/01/2016 (an issue to be handled by the municipal authorities rather than the Britsh ones).
[18]    The Sangatte Protocol (1991) and the Touquet agreements (2003) have introduced a relocation in Calais of the British checkpoints. So it is the UK blocking the refugees in Calais, France playing the role of a « policeman of the British migratory policy». Source: 20 Minutes, 16/07/2015.
[19]   Source: The Guardian, 07/09/2015.
[20]   Source: Huffington Post, 10/09/2015.
[21]   Unemployment allowances in the United Kingdom – Source: Unedic, 27/05/2014.
[22]   Source: The National, 04/02/2016.
[23]   Source: Irish Times, 02/01/2016.
[24]   Source: Le Monde, 09/04/2013.
[25]   Source: Standard, 26/01/2016.
[26]   « Blair : Brexit would spell the end of the UK » – Source: RT 26/01/2016.
[27]   According to our latest GEAB bulletins.
[28]   This Italian expression is gloriously translated « branle-bas le combat » in French or “action stations” in English. But we realised that the Italian phrase expressed much better the idea of the situation…
[29]   Source: The Telegraph, 30/06/2012.
[30]   Source: The Telegraph, 03/05/2013.
[31]   Source: Electoral Commission.
[32]   Source: Yahoo, 05/01/2016.
[33]   Source: AOL, 03/02/2016.
[34]   Source: Express, 04/02/2016.
[35]   June 23, 2016 was expressedly presented  – Source: The Guardian, 03/02/2016.
[36]   27 out of the 58 main hedge-funds have financed the conservative party up to 19 million pounds in 2014, which is 50% of the party’s financing – Source: The Independent, 04/02/2015, some of them officially supporting a possible Brexit – Source: Arte 29/01/2016 or The Guardian, 06/11/2015.
[37]   A system allowing the army to threaten the labour candidate, Jeremy Corbyn, with riots if the latter were elected Prime Minister – Source: The Independent.
[38]   In « The Anglo-Saxon World of the 21st century: back to feudalism » by Frédéric Beaugeard. Europe2020, 02/04/2012.
[39]   The ties UK/World in short “Gaps in UK Foreign Policy” – Source: Global Diplomatic Forum.
[40]   Source: eureferendum.com.
[41]   Margaret Thatcher for e.g. – Source: The Globalist, 06/01/2016.
[42]   Blair was particularly the partisan of the retreat of the European Charter of Fundamental Rights. Source: Fenêtre sur l’Europe, 16/10/2009.
[43]   Read « EU Referendum: a non-event in Brussels » – Source: EUReferendum, 17/12/2015.
[44]   Source: The Guardian, 10/12/2009.
[45]   Source: Conseil européen, 02/02/2016.
[46]   Source: Reuters, 04/02/2016.
[47]   Source: Express, 07/01/2016.
[48]   Source: The Guardian, 07/01/2016.
[49]   Source: Sky News, 19/06/2015.
[50]   Source: European Commission.
[51]   Source: IBTimes, 29/03/2015.
[52]   The USA has decided to increase by four times their military expenditures in Eastern Europe – Source: EUObserver, 02/02/2016.
[53]   Source: Reuters, 28/10/2015.
[54]   An expression borrowed from Modi, the Indian Prime Minister – Source: New Statesman, 20/11/2015.
[55]   « post imperial fantasy » as it is said by The Guardian , 21/11/2015.
[56]   Source: IBTimes, 12/11/2015.
[57]   Source: The Guardian, 21/11/2015.
[58]   Source: Gateway House, 09/07/2015.
[59]   Regarding the London-Beijing evolutions: March 2015, Monetary Market Funds denominated in yuan, Source: RT ,25/03/2015 – June 2015, Bank of China becomes the first Chinese bank participating in the gold price decision-making in London. Source: Goldbroker, 17/06/2015 – October 2015 connection between the stocks of Shanghai and London – Source:  Xinhuanet,22/10/2015.
[60]   According to: « In Case of Brexit, Luxembourg Is Open for Business » Source: Bloomberg, 29/10/2015.
[61]   Source: Oddschecker.
[62]   “The old empire-commonwealth dream is really just that” (Anne Deighton, Professor of European International Politics, Oxford University) Source: CS Monitor, 17/01/2013.
[63]   Source: YouGov, 04/02/2016.
[64]   Regular updates on the website: What UK thinks.
[65]   Source: IPSOS-Mori, 11/01/2016.
[66]   Source: Farmers Journal, 11/01/2016 or Belfast Telegraph, 03/02/2016.
[67]   Source: Evening Standard, 24/12/2015.
[68]   Source: University world news, 08/01/2016.
[69]   « Leading UK women unite behind campaign to stay in EU » Source: Standard, 25/01/2016.
[70]   Read Donald Tusk’s letter to the EU Council’s members – Source: European Council 02/02/2016 and “Equitable” ou “pitoyable” : le compromis visant à éviter le “Brexit” en débat – Source: Arte 03/02/2016.
[71]   « Cameron’s battle is less to get a better EU deal, and more to stop it getting worse » – Source: ITV, 05/02/2016.
[72]   The exact terms of the issue are: ““Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”  Suggested answers: « Remain a member of the European Union » ) or « Leave the European Union”  Source: EU Referendum law – UK Parliament, 17/12/2015 and The Telegraph, 01/02/2016.
[73]   « Cameron: We have no Brexit plan », Source: The Times, 11/01/2016 and even more recently “Top UK businesses unprepared for Brexit“, Source: FT 05/02/2016.
[74]   Source: Britalypost, 11/01/2016.
[75]   Source: New India Express, 11/01/2016.
[76]   Source: Euro Weekly, 05/02/2016 – The Independent, 05/02/2016.
[77]   Frankfurt will come for the City after Brexit – Source: The Telegraph, 13/02/2016.
[78]   Source: SWIFT, 18/12/2015.
[79]   Bankers sound alarm bells over Brexit consequences – Source: Gulf News, 10/01/2016, and also the threatening of S&P – Source: Business Day, 12/12/2015.
[80]   The 5 Presidents’ Report – Source: European Commision.
[81]   « Brexit threat to UK security » Source: The Guardian, 11/01/2016.
[82]   Source: Le Devoir,16/01/2016.
[83]   While it would be fatal for the pound zone: « Goldman Sachs warns pound will slide 20% on Brexit » Source: Evening Standard, 04/02/2016.
[84]   Sources: News100,  09/01/2016 & Le Vif, 11/01/2016.
[85]   Also in the EU Commission’s one– Source: Euobserver, 19/11/2015.
[86]   Source: Reuters, 02/11/2015.
[87]   Source: Les Echos, 18/10/2015.
[88]   About the content of Donald Tusk’s letter, as basis of negotiation within the EU Council of February 18 and 19 « non negotiable » according to François Hollande : BBC, 02/02/2016 – Le Monde, 02/02/2016
[89]   « Pour ou contre le Brexit ? Les spéculations financières vont bon train » Source: Arte, 29/01/2016. – « Brexit Referendum Betting Odds » , on Odds Checker.
[90]   « Cameron fights for his place in history with EU vote » Source: Global Post, 05/02/2016.