Dossier de Prensa

Global Systemic Crisis

  • eubusiness2 EU-U.S. (re)insurance deal boost for transatlantic trade - More than 20 years of talks between the EU and the United States ended successfully Friday with a bilateral agreement set to boost transatlantic trade in insurance and re-insurance. The agreement will apply the same requirements to both EU and U.S. reinsurers when they place business in each other’s jurisdictions. European insurers will welcome in particular the removal of the collateral requirements – if they meet the conditions laid down in the Agreement – which EU reinsurers were subject to when placing business in the US, which were seen as discriminatory. Eliminating collateral and local presence requirements for EU and U.S. reinsurers will enhance consumer protection, say both parties. The deal is a win-win solution, set to benefit insurers, reinsurers and policyholders on both sides of the Atlantic, says the ... Leer
  • latribune Donald Trump s’alarme de la concurrence chinoise en Afrique - Dans un document envoyé par l’équipe de transition de Donal Trump au département d’État américain et cité par le New York Times, le nouveau président des USA livre une réflexion sur la concurrence livrée par la Chine à son pays en Afrique et sur les échecs américains sur le continent noir. L’Afrique devrait-elle s’attendre à des changements très prochainement ? Même à quelques jours de son arrivée à la Maison Blanche, Donald Trump ne cesse de susciter des incertitudes sur sa politique vis-à-vis de l’Afrique. Le président élu multiplie les déclarations et oblige soit à lire entre les lignes soit à analyser son avis pour en sortir une conclusion. Et c’est l’exercice auquel il a encore acculé les observateurs dans le document envoyé par son équipe de transition au département d’État. Donald Trump aborde ... Leer
  • euobs ‘Be patient,’ ECB chief tells Germany - The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced on Thursday (19 January) that it will keep its current monetary policy unchanged and defended it against growing German criticism. The ECB maintained its base interest rate at 0 percent and its deposit rate at -0.4 percent. It also confirmed that its €80-billion per month bond-buying scheme would continue until March and reduced to €60-billion per month until December. The eurozone’s bank president Mario Draghi said at a presse conference in Francfort that he expected the rates to “remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.” He added that the so-called quantitative easing (QE) scheme would continue after December “if necessary, and in any case” until inflation in the ... Leer
  • “Getting Over Globalization” – Outlook for 2017 - The Credit Suisse Research Institute examines the end of globalization as we know it and the passage from globalization to multipolarity – regions that are distinct in terms of their economies, laws, cultures and security networks. The Credit Suisse Research Institute today publishes its report “Getting over Globalization”, which outlines how the global economy is moving into a more multipolar form, the stability of which depends on appropriate rules and institutions being established early on. While highlighting several risks such as a rise in protectionism, currency wars and geopolitical conflicts, the report concludes that rather than halting globalization altogether, there are steps that can be taken towards a more balanced outcome… Read more : CreditSuisse.com, 19.01.2017
  • scmp China reports 6.7 per cent GDP expansion in 2016 amid data cooking scandal - China’s government said the nation’s economy expanded by 6.7 per cent in 2016, within its target but the slowest pace of growth in 26 years. The publication of the figures comes as investor confidence in the Chinese economy, and even the credibility of official economic data, is waning. China’s economy is expected to face more headwinds this year after Donald Trump, who has been threatening tough trade measures against Beijing, assumes the presidency. Why obsessing over GDP is no longer in China’s interests The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday showed that China’s economy expanded by 6.8 per cent in the final quarter of last year, accelerating from 6.7 per cent growth in the third, second and first quarters of 2016… Read more : SCMP, 20.01.2017
  • alj Obama’s legacy in Asia - “[B]y almost every measure, America is a better, stronger place than it was when we started,” declared US president Barack Hussein Obama in his emotional farewell speech. “After all, we remain the wealthiest, most powerful, and most respected nation on Earth.” The outgoing president wasted no time to highlight his signature achievements, from preventing a global economic depression and the collapse of American car industry, to overseeing decent economic recovery and marriage equality to the establishment of the foundations of a truly universal healthcare system.  On foreign policy, he highlighted his administration’s broadly successful efforts to “open up a new chapter with the Cuban people, shut down Iran’s nuclear weapons programme without firing a shot, take out the mastermind of 9/11 [Osama bin Laden].” After all, unconditional dialogue, economic engagement, and ... Leer
  • A man walks past an electronic board showing stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, January 4, 2017.  REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon Pound quivers near three-month low, stocks weak before May’s Brexit stance speech - The pound hovered near three-month lows versus the dollar on Tuesday and stocks were mostly weaker as investors waited for British Prime Minister Theresa May to lay out plans to exit the European Union amid fears Britain will lose access to the single market. Safe-havens such as the yen, gold and Treasuries gained in turn. Speadbetters forecast a slightly lower open for Britain’s FTSE .FTSE, Germany’s DAX .GDAXI and France’s CAC .FCHI. According to her office, May will say in a speech later in the day that Britain will not seek a Brexit deal that leaves it “half in, half out” of the EU. She is due to set out her 12 priorities for upcoming divorce talks with the bloc. Those priorities will include leaving the EU’s single market and ... Leer
  • guardian World Bank downgrades India’s growth forecast after demonetisation - The World Bank has downgraded the Indian economy’s growth forecast as sharp falls in the country’s automobile and real estate sales flagged the short-term impact of recalling India’s two most-used bank notes. The Washington-based financial institution predicted India’s economy would grow by a “still robust” 7% in the fiscal year to March 2017 – a 0.6% drop from its earlier forecast but still the fastest rate of any major economy in the world. It attributes the fall to November’s decision to recall all 1,000 and 500 rupee currency bills from circulation, a surprise demonetisation move intended to weed out untaxed wealth, hasten the digitisation of India’s economy and disrupt terrorist and other criminal networks… Read more : The Guardian, 11.01.2017
  • figaro2 Qui pour succéder à Martin Schulz à la tête du Parlement européen ? - Les députés de Strasbourg choisissent, ce mardi, le nouveau président de l’Hémicycle européen. Les quatorze vice-présidents et cinq questeurs seront également élus à l’issue de ce scrutin. C’est la première fois que l’issue de ce scrutin est aussi incertaine. Ce mardi, les 751 eurodéputés se réuniront en session plénière à Strasbourg pour élire le successeur de Martin Schulz à la tête du Parlement européen. Après cinq ans passés à la tête de l’institution, le président sortant a choisi de retourner en Allemagne en vue de se présenter aux élections nationales. L’élection se déroulera en trois tours. Pour être élu, un candidat doit obtenir la majorité absolue des suffrages exprimés à l’issue des trois premiers tours. Si aucun n’obtient plus de 50% du scrutin, alors les deux candidats ayant obtenu le ... Leer
  • lemonde L’Irlande du Nord, en pleine crise politique, convoque des élections anticipées - Le pouvoir est partagé entre unionistes et nationalistes du Sinn Fein. Mais après la démission de Martin McGuiness, le Sinn Fein a refusé de désigner un successeur. Après une crise politique sur fond de Brexit et l’effondrement de la coalition au pouvoir, des élections législatives anticipées se tiendront en Irlande du Nord le 2 mars, a annoncé, lundi 16 janvier, le secrétaire d’Etat chargé de l’Irlande du Nord, James Brokenshire. « Personne ne devrait sous-estimer le défi posé aux institutions politiques nord-irlandaises et ce qui est en jeu », a déclaré le secrétaire d’Etat britannique lors d’une conférence de presse à Belfast, à l’heure où les accords de paix de 1998 risquent d’être fragilisés par cette crise politique. Il a recommandé au Sinn Fein et au Parti unioniste démocrate (DUP) de « rétablir un partenariat » ... Leer
  • figaro1 A quoi sert encore l’Otan aujourd’hui ? - Créée en 1949, l’organisation du Traité de l’Atlantique Nord, critiquée par Donald Trump, doit faire face à des contradictions internes face à une menace russe plus aussi claire. Donald Trump a réitéré, ce lundi, ses critiques au sujet de l’Otan, l’organisation du Traité de l’Atlantique Nord qui, selon lui, «a des problèmes» et est «obsolète» dans une interview dans deux journaux européens, The Times et Bild. Mais si l’Otan a rappelé sa «confiance absolue» dans le maintien d’un «engagement fort» des États-Unis, des interrogations persistantes demeurent quant à la sphère d’influence actuelle de l’Organisation, certains allant jusqu’à remettre en cause sa pertinence… Lisez la suite : Le Figaro, 16.01.2017
  • dw Merkel on Trump: The EU can take care of itself - Speaking at a press conference with the prime minister of New Zealand, the German chancellor dismissed Trump’s criticism of her refugee policy. Germany’s top diplomat accused Trump of contradicting his own cabinet. German Chancellor Angela Merkel dismissed US president-elect Donald Trump’s criticism of the European Union and her refugee policy on Monday. The EU, she insisted, can take care of itself. “We Europeans have our fate in our own hands,” she told reporters. In an interview with the German mass-circulation newspaper “Bild” on Sunday, Trump had called Merkel’s open-door policy for Syrian refugees a “catastrophic mistake.”… Read more : Deutsche Welle, 16.01.2017
  • European Parliament's presidential candidate Antonio Tajani attends the announcement of the candidates for the election to the office of the President at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, January 16, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann EU Parliament speaker vote could strengthen eurosceptics - The European Parliament elects a new speaker on Tuesday in an unusually hotly contested vote that could strengthen eurosceptic forces at a time when the EU faces British moves to leave and questions about its future role. A divisive campaign and the end of the ‘grand coalition’ of the main parties is also likely to hamper the assembly, delaying lawmaking – another boon for anti-EU parties who portray the union as rigid and bureaucratic. Other sensitive matters facing the assembly include immigration and banking. Conservative Antonio Tajani, 63, a close ally of Italy’s former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, is the favourite as he can count on the support of the European People’s Party, the largest grouping in parliament. Unlike past appointments which were agreed in advance by the main parties, ... Leer
  • independent Syrian government ‘ready to negotiate on everything’, Assad says - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has said he is prepared to negotiate on “everything” in proposed peace talks with rebels later this month, despite the shakiness of the current ceasefire. Talks brokered by Syrian ally Russia and rebel supporting Turkey are supposed to take place in Kazakhstan before the end of January, but last week opposition groups said they had frozen the process in light of continued government strikes across the country. In comments made to French media published on Monday, Mr Assad said that the nationwide truce had been violated by rebels several times. He also defended the army’s push to recapture Wadi Barada, a rebel-held valley near Damascus where the main water supply to the capital has been turned off… Read more : The Independent, 09.01.2017
  • dc Welcome To The Third World, Part 21: This Pension Thing Is About To Get Real - Though it may not be instantly clear, in the above quote Michael Lewis is talking about public sector pensions and how over the course of several decades, mayors and governors across the US have colluded with police, firefighter and teachers unions to promise outrageously-generous benefits and then failed to put aside enough money to pay for them. As a consequence two things are happening. In dozens if not hundreds of cities and towns, services are being cut to the bone to pay for ballooning pension benefits, and – when even these cuts prove inadequate – pensions are being drastically reduced… Read more : Dollar Collapse, 14.01.2017
  • macys Why are Macy’s and Sears in distress? - We are in the throes of another round of what the economist Joseph Schumpeter memorably called “creative destruction.” Two icons of American business — Macy’s and Sears — are struggling. Macy’s plans to close 100 stores to improve profitability, and Sears has sold its Craftsman tools line for roughly $900 million to raise cash. Conceivably, one or both of these historic chains could go bankrupt. Their distress is part of a larger consolidation of retailers under siege from e-commerce. The Limited is closing all its 250 stores. Kmart, owned by Sears, is shutting dozens of stores. This is a rough process for workers, managers and shareholders, but it holds out the promise of improved business efficiency, a.k.a. productivity. The most inefficient stores will shut; the survivors will be more viable ... Leer
  • ESSEN, GERMANY - DECEMBER 07:  German Chancellor and Chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats (CDU) Angela Merkel (C) gives a television interview at the conclusion of the 29th federal congress of the CDU on December 7, 2016 in Essen, Germany. Approximately 1,000 CDU delegates are meeting to debate and vote on the party's course for next year following the recent announcement by Merkel that she will run for a fourth term as chancellor in federal elections scheduled for next September.  (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images) Merkel Anticipates Frosty Relations with U.S. - The hour-long video didn’t exactly put the German chancellor in a cheerful mood. The footage was from Donald Trump’s recent appearance in Pennsylvania during his so-called Thank You Tour and Angela Merkel, as she told the national executive committee of her center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), watched the rally in its entirety. She recommended that her fellow party members do the same. “It is interesting to see the thought environment he inhabits,” she said. During his speech, Trump celebrated a landslide victory that was anything but; he blasted the press (“the world’s most dishonest people”) and in no way left the impression that he has matured into a statesman following his election win. But one passage really stood out in Merkel’s memory and she quoted it verbatim: “There is no such ... Leer
  • rfi E-CFA: l’Afrique de l’Ouest se dote d’une monnaie numérique - 2017 sera l’année du e-CFA. Le Sénégal s’apprête à lancer une version numérique du franc CFA, la monnaie en vigueur dans toute l’Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine. Cette devise numérique sera émise par la Banque régionale de marché (BRM), selon la règlementation sur la monnaie électronique édictée par la Banque Centrale des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (BCEAO), la Banque centrale régionale. Si son succès se confirme, elle sera alors étendue à tous les pays de la zone UEMOA. Jonathan Dharmapalan est le fondateur d’E-currency Mint Limited. Cette start-up installée en République d’Irlande a mis au point le e-CFA. Et n’allez pas comparer cette monnaie africaine au bitcoin, la devise pionnière du numérique. Le e-CFA dépend d’une zone économique et monétaire, il est émis par une Banque centrale et c’est là toute la ... Leer
  • euobs2 Cyprus leader hails ‘milestone’ in reunification talks - The Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders have exchanged maps showing how much territory their communities would control on a reunified island, in a move that could be a major breakthrough towards a peace settlement. “The submission of maps is a milestone in the history of the Cyprus problem. We continue to strive to satisfy the expectations of the Cypriot people,” Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades wrote on Twitter on Wednesday (11 January). Anastasiades and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart Mustafa Akinci had been negotiating since Monday in Geneva, Switzerland, in what was considered a last-chance effort to reach an agreement. A UN-chaired multilateral conference begins on Thursday with the three powers that guarantee Cyprus’s security – the UK, Greece and Turkey. Cyprus has been divided since a Turkish invasion in 1974. ... Leer
  • NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 29: The United Nations (UN) headquarters stands above the neighborhood on the east side of Manhattan on September 29, 2015 in New York City. The ongoing war in Syria and the refugee crisis it has spawned are providing a backdrop to this years 70th annual General Assembly meeting of global leaders.   Spencer Platt/Getty Images/AFP == FOR NEWSPAPERS, INTERNET, TELCOS & TELEVISION USE ONLY == Disunity and Impotence at the United Nations - The mandate of the United Nations is to preserve peace in the world, but when it comes to the Syrian crisis, the global body has failed badly. Will the UN’s new secretary-general be able to finally introduce necessary reforms? The UN was not created to take mankind to heaven, but to save humanity from hell.Dag Hammarskjöld, UN secretary-general, during a May 1954 speech. The man who, by simply raising his hand, prevented all efforts to end the war in Syria is sitting in a bunker-like room on 67th Street in Manhattan. Chandeliers are hanging above his head, a pendulum clock is keeping the time behind him and the furniture recalls Soviet-era filmography. “We have had this problem with Syria, of course, and …… I (have) thought a lot about it,” ... Leer
  • China’s three-trillion-dollar question: the yuan or forex reserves? - President Xi Jinping will face a daunting task when he addresses global political and business elites at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, later this month. Xi must show the world that China has not lost control of its pursuit of a stable yuan and is also maintaining sufficient foreign exchange reserves. For Xi, an ideal situation would be for the yuan to stay stronger than seven to the US dollar and the forex reserves to be above the key level of US$3 trillion. The central bank will release the figure for the year-end foreign exchange reserves today. If the reserves shrank by more than US$51.5 billion in December, Beijing will find its stockpile below US$3 trillion for the first time since 2011. In November, the reserves fell by ... Leer
  • independent Syrian government ‘ready to negotiate on everything’, Assad says - President Bashar al-Assad indicates he is willing to consider the possibility of stepping down in free elections if rebels agree to restarting peace talks later this month. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has said he is prepared to negotiate on “everything” in proposed peace talks with rebels later this month, despite the shakiness of the current ceasefire. Talks brokered by Syrian ally Russia and rebel supporting Turkey are supposed to take place in Kazakhstan before the end of January, but last week opposition groups said they had frozen the process in light of continued government strikes across the country. In comments made to French media published on Monday, Mr Assad said that the nationwide truce had been violated by rebels several times. He also defended the army’s push to recapture Wadi Barada, a rebel-held valley near Damascus where the main ... Leer
  • How China’s belt and road is transforming Asean - Peter Wong says Beijing’s ambitious plan is filling the gaps in infrastructure investment that have greatly hampered the region’s development, and by so doing is truly linking up the whole of Asia. In the wake of more isolationist political thinking in the West, with many developed economies turning inward, China is reaching out, seeking stronger trade and investment links with its economic partners. China’s “One Belt, One Road” is a prime example of this reaching-out policy. Under the initiative, China aims to trigger demand for materials and goods at home by investing in strategic infrastructure projects abroad, developing economic ties along its old Silk Road to Europe and along newer maritime links in and around Asia and as far away as Africa… Read more : SCMP, 09.01.2017
  • China Rapid Finance to triple number of users on its consumer lending platform - Firm committed to grow lending business in accordance with Chinese regulations, says founder. China Rapid Finance (CRF), the mainland’s largest online consumer lending platform in terms of the number of loans transacted, is looking to triple the number of users this year as it looks to create a business on par with a major commercial bank’s credit-card division. Zane Wang Zhengyu, founder and chief executive of CRF, told the South China Morning Post that the company would be impervious to the challenges facing other peer-to-peer (P2P) operators on the mainland, and would continue to bolster its online consumer lending businesses in accordance with Beijing’s financial reforms. “We have been trying to nurture the growth of the online consumer lending business in China,” he said. “High frequency of small-loan borrowings is ... Leer
  • guardian6 Five Star Movement’s founder calls for vote on quitting Farage bloc - The founder of Italy’s populist Five Star Movement (M5S) has asked members to vote on splitting from a Eurosceptic bloc of MEPs co-chaired by Nigel Farage. Beppe Grillo, a comedian turned politician, said in a post on his blog that since Farage had led Ukip to Britain voting to leave the EU, the two parties no longer shared common goals and he recommended leaving the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD). “Recent events in Europe, such as Brexit, have led us to reconsider the nature of the EFDD group,” Grillo wrote. “With the extraordinary success of the leave campaign, Ukip achieved its political objective: to leave the European Union. “Let’s discuss the concrete facts: Farage has already abandoned the leadership of his party and British MEPs will leave the ... Leer
  • Italy opens Libya embassy to stop migrants - Italy announced on Monday (9 January) it would re-open its embassy in Libya’s capital as part of a broader effort to curb migration departures. “The Italian ambassador is returning to Tripoli after two years. A great gesture of friendship to the Libyan people. Now more controls on migrant departures,” Italy’s foreign minister Angelino Alfano wrote on Twitter. The diplomatic envoy, set to start on Tuesday, is the first for any Western nation after governments pulled out when Libya was left to the mercy of warring militant groups. The turmoil has also allowed the Islamic State jihadist group to gain a foothold. The general lawlessness helped turn the country into the main staging ground for people seeking to reach the EU from the north African coast. Frontex, the EU border agency, ... Leer
  • scmp HOW PARK GEUN-HYE’S IMPEACHMENT CAN HEAL SEOUL’S RIFT WITH BEIJING - The impeachment of South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye may have dragged the country into political chaos, but it may also help to heal a diplomatic rift with Beijing over the planned deployment of a US missile shield. Analysts say recent overtures from Korean opposition parties’ over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system – which could delay, if not prevent, its deployment – are being viewed positively by Beijing. South Korean opposition lawmakers to visit China over THAAD Eight lawmakers from the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) landed in China this week to meet China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi and other top officials to convey their belief that the decision to deploy THAAD should be left to the next president… Read more : SCMP, 08.01.2017
  • guardian How two congressmen created the internet’s biggest names - There is a law of unintended consequences that, naturally, also applies to lawmaking itself: the prohibition on the sale of alcohol in the US from 1920-33, for example, led to a massive increase in organised crime: manna from heaven for gangsters. Or, to take another example, the first amendment to the US constitution guarantees freedom of speech. But in the Citizens United case of 2010, the US supreme court interpreted it as guaranteeing the freedom of corporations to spend as much money as they liked in support of political campaigns. Corporations, apparently, are legal “persons” entitled to the same rights as citizens (which led Lawrence Lessig, a noted US lawyer, to declare that he would only believe corporations were people when the state of Texas executed one)… Read more : ... Leer
  • bloom2 Saudis Said to Duel Rivals by Curbing Heavy Oil Over Light Crude - Saudi Arabia is staying in the battle for market share by continuing to pump the type of oil that’s similar to rival U.S. and African supply, while fulfilling its promise to cut output by focusing curbs on other varieties. The nation plans to idle some fields producing the Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades to meet its output reduction target, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the information is confidential. That would help the world’s top exporter concentrate more on selling more-profitable crudes such as Arab Light and Extra Light, adding to growing global supplies of similar-quality oil and pitting it against other producers. A majority of the output cuts that are part of a historic deal between OPEC and some ... Leer
  • bloom Is Emirates Airline Running Out of Sky? - In their fifth week of training, women hired as flight attendants at Emirates Airline spend a day in Dubai with Pamela Mizzi. A makeup artist from Malta who spent 12 years in the sky herself, Mizzi greets the students in a windowless instruction space about 20 feet across, lined on three sides by mirrors divided into vanities by bright roundels of light, like an old-timey dressing room. Her job is to teach the trainees how Emirates expects them to look. Female cabin crew, referred to invariably as “girls,” are to tie their hair back in tight buns, preferably secured by a scrunchie in Emirates-brand red. For makeup, a seven-step process is recommended, starting with foundation and concealer, then moving on to lipstick, also in preauthorized shades of crimson. At the back of ... Leer
  • china-daily Infrastructure to remain main economic growth engine - Infrastructure is projected to remain the main growth engine for China’s economy this year, creating a market worth 16 trillion yuan ($2.32 trillion), China Business News reported. Some provinces have recently unveiled their investment plans for the new year. Both well-developed eastern provinces and underdeveloped western and central regions have put infrastructure investment, especially in the transportation sector, in an important position. Among them, provinces such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan and Guizhou have higher share of infrastructure investment figures, the newspaper said. For example, Guangdong plans to invest 520 billion yuan in key projects in 2017, up 20 billion yuan from the previous year. The southern province also plans to start six railway and seven highway projects this year. China’s fixed-asset investment is forecast to grow at eight percent, said ... Leer
  • guardian Chief economist of Bank of England admits errors in Brexit forecasting - The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote. Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question. Blaming the failure of economic models to cope with “irrational behaviour” in the modern era, the economist said the profession needed to adapt to regain the trust of the public and politicians. Haldane described the collapse of Lehman Brothers as the economics profession’s “Michael Fish moment” (a reference to when the BBC weather forecaster predicted in 1987 that the UK would avoid a hurricane that went on to devastate large parts ... Leer
  • lesechos Russie, Turquie, Iran : le triangle de la revanche - La guerre en Syrie a rapproché Russes, Iraniens et Turcs. Mais cette triple alliance a des origines plus profondes : la revanche sur un monde occidental qui les a humiliés et la nature autoritaire de leur régime. En diplomatie comme en géométrie, il existe diverses formes de triangle. La Triple Entente entre la France, la Grande-Bretagne et la Russie visait, à la veille de 1914, à contenir les ambitions de l’Allemagne, soutenue par l’Autriche-Hongrie. Plus près de nous, dans les années 1970, le triangle Washington-Moscou-Pékin décrivait le nouvel équilibre entre trois puissances dont l’une, l’Amérique, souhaitait tout à la fois isoler l’URSS et utiliser la neutralité bienveillante de la Chine pour sortir du bourbier vietnamien. En 2017, le triangle « à la mode » est celui constitué par l’alliance de circonstances ... Leer
  • bloomberg Trumponomics Gets The Thumbs Down From Nobel-Winning Economists - A pack of Nobel Prize-winning economists gave Donald Trump and his policy plans the thumbs-down on Friday, with one saying the president-elect’s programs could lead to a deep recession. Speaking on a panel during the first day of the annual American Economic Association meeting in Chicago, the Nobel laureates voiced a variety of concerns about the billionaire developer’s stance, from his haranguing of U.S. companies about their outsourcing plans to the risk that his tax and spending proposals could lead to run-away budget deficits. “There is a broad consensus that the kind of policies that our president-elect has proposed are among the polices that will not work,” said Joseph Stiglitz, summing up the views of the panel that included his fellow Columbia University professor Edmund Phelps and Yale University’s Robert ... Leer
  • economie-matin ON PEUT DIRE ADIEU À LA HAUSSE DU DOLLAR - Aujourd’hui, nous faisons le grand saut. Nous laissons de côté le consensus et défendons une position très contrarienne. Nous mettons en jeu ce qu’il nous reste de réputation, et défendons avec hésitation l’argument que les jours du marché haussier du dollar sont comptés. En réalité, il est possible qu’il soit déjà bien mort… Le terrible indicateur dit « de la couverture de magazine » qui fonctionne en fait plutôt bien… Une image de George Washington figurait la semaine dernière en couverture de The Economist – qui devrait selon moi être rebaptisé The Dogmatist. Son visage était celui que l’on peut voir sur les billets en dollars, mais il était posé sur un corps d’haltérophile. Le titre était « The Mighty Dollar« , le puissant dollar. Les choses tournent souvent au vinaigre quand l’on fait ... Leer
  • Portugal starts recapitalisation of state-owned lender CGD - Portugal started a planned recapitalisation of state-owned lender CGD on Wednesday by converting 945 million euros of contingent convertible bonds (CoCo) into equity and transferring 500 euros of shares to the bank, the finance ministry said. The recapitalisation, which will include a direct capital injection by the state of up to 2.7 billion euros in the second phase, was agreed with the European Commission in August. The ministry said in a statement the convertible bonds were transferred to CGD on Wednesday as was the 500 million euros of CGD shares held by state holding company ParCaixa… Read more : Euronews, 04.01.2017
  • marketwatch Dollar retreats from 14-year high after FOMC minutes - The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday, pulling back from a 14-year high following the release of commentary from the Federal Reserve. While the dollar had already been weaker against its major rivals, it extended its decline following the release of minutes from the Fed’s December meeting, with a key currency index dropping to its lows of the session. The minutes showed some conflict over the central bank’s pace of raising interest rates at the meeting, when the Fed raised interest rates for only the second time in the past decade. The Fed has said the pace of hikes would be “gradual,” though the minutes indicated that many Fed officials thought a measured pace of increases was under threat. The officials “pointed to a number of risks that, if realized, might ... Leer
  • nbc 11 Surprising Predictions for 2017 From Some of The Biggest Names In Science - What scientific discoveries will 2017 bring? What technological innovations? Probably not time travel — or time-shares on Mars. But no one really knows for sure, and when we asked some of the biggest names in in science and technology to share their predictions for the coming year, there was a bit of pushback. “I normally don’t make predictions for anything less than two trillion years in the future,” Arizona State University cosmologist Lawrence Krauss told NBC MACH. It’s easier to make predictions that far out, he added jokingly, when “no one will be around to check them.” Ultimately, Krauss came through with some fascinating forecasts. Read on to see them, along with predictions from legendary astronaut Buzz Aldrin and nine more thought leaders in science and tech (the submissions have ... Leer
  • guardian4 Ambassador to EU quits and warns staff over ‘muddled thinking’ - Britain’s ambassador to the European Union Sir Ivan Rogers dealt a blow to the UK’s Brexit negotiations by quitting and urging his fellow British civil servants in Brussels to assert their independence by challenging “ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking”. Sir Ivan Rogers said, in an email explaining his reasons for his abrupt departure to the UK’s Brussels diplomatic staff at UKRep, that he was leaving now to give time for his successor to take charge of the lengthy negotiations process which starts in March. But he also made it clear that he had been frustrated by politicians who disliked his warnings about the potential pitfalls in the Brexit process. He also revealed that the basic structure of the UK Brexit negotiating team had not yet been resolved, let alone a ... Leer
  • guardian3 Indonesia suspends military cooperation with Australia - Indonesia has suspended all military cooperation with Australia, reportedly over offensive materials displayed at an Australian military base where its troops were training. The offensive “laminated material” shown at a base was insulting towards Indonesia’s five founding principles – Pancasila – Indonesian newspaper Kompas has reported. The Kompas report says a cable dated 29 December, sent by Indonesian military commander General Gatot Nurmantyo, instructed that all military cooperation, including training with the Australian defence force, be suspended. The Indonesian military spokesman, Major General Wuryanto has confirmed the split, but would not specifically confirm the reason, saying cooperation between the Australian and Indonesian militaries had been suspended for “technical reasons”, effective immediately. “All forms of cooperation have been suspended,” he said… Read more : The Guardian, 04.01.2017
  • bloomberg2 Why German Banks Took Stand Against Basel Capital Floors - No wonder Germany is on the warpath against a proposed global standard for how banks calculate the capital they need: Its largest lenders rank among the worst when it comes to how they assess risk. That means Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG will be affected more than most big lenders and may have to raise additional capital, if and when the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision implements a proposed floor for how much their risk-weighting of assets can veer from standardized measures. By Deutsche Bank’s own calculations, its risk-weighted assets equal just 28 percent of its balance sheet, compared with 50 percent for the six largest U.S. banks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg… Read more : Bloomberg, 03.01.2017
  • A souvenir license plate is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 21, 2016. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly U.S. banks gear up to fight Dodd-Frank Act’s Volcker rule - Big U.S. banks are set on getting Congress this year to loosen or eliminate the Volcker rule against using depositors’ funds for speculative bets on the bank’s own account, a test case of whether Wall Street can flex its muscle in Washington again. In interviews over the past several weeks, half a dozen industry lobbyists said they began meeting with legislative staff after the U.S. election in November to discuss matters including a rollback of Volcker, part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform that Congress enacted after the financial crisis and bank bailouts… Read more:  Reuters, 04.01.2017
  • mhc Marie-Hélène Caillol: “Han demolido la UE” - En el universo de los think tanks , el LEAP (Laboratoire Européen d’Anticipation Politique) es una rara avis: es independiente. De ahí su heterodoxia e interés. En 1998 adelantó el regreso al viejo continente de los “nietos de Hitler, Franco, Mussolini y Petain”, en 2006 predijo la crisis de las subprimes y desde hace muchos años predice el fracaso de la Unión Europea si no se democratiza. Fundado en 1997 por el desaparecido politólogo europeísta Franck Biancheri (1961-2012), el LEAP está establecido en París. Marie-Hélène Caillol es su presidenta. La actual crisis de la Unión Europea es múltiple y total; La integración de la Europa del Este ha sido un fracaso, en la Europa del Sur toda la “magia” del sueño europeo también ha desparecido: la UE ya no significa ... Leer
  • mercosur Las horas más bajas del Mercosur - Cuando nació en 1991, el Mercosur, el bloque comercial que agrupa a Argentina, Brasil, Paraguay, Uruguay (posteriormente se adhirieron Bolivia y Venezuela) pretendía convertirse en algo así como la Unión Europea del continente: “arancel externo común” y “asegurar condiciones adecuadas de competencia”. Pero el año que acaba de concluir pasará a la historia como un punto de inflexión. En efecto, el Mercosur atraviesa una de sus horas más bajas. Venezuela ha sido excluida de la organización, mientras que Argentina mira cada vez más de cerca al bloque comercial rival, la Alianza del Pacífico, que, en cambio, no para de crecer y ganar influencia. La salida de Venezuela ha sido el epílogo de un proyecto renqueante. Nicolás Maduro acusó a su homólogo argentino de ser “un mentiroso, un cobarde y un ... Leer
  • guardian2 Syria ceasefire appears to hold after rivals sign Russia-backed deal - A ceasefire has come into effect across Syria after the Assad regime and the opposition agreed to a nationwide deal brokered by Turkey and Russia. It is hoped the fragile pact could mark a key turning point and usher in peace talks aimed at bringing an end to the six-year conflict that has killed nearly half a million people and displaced half of Syria’s population. The deal came into force at midnight (10pm GMT) on Thursday and appeared to be holding early on Friday after reports of clashes early on. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said rebels had violated the truce deal and taken over a position in Hama province, while a rebel group also accused the government of shelling areas in Atshan and Skeik villages in ... Leer
  • Budget : le prélèvement de l’impôt à la source validé par le Conseil constitutionnel - Le Conseil constitutionnel a écarté jeudi les griefs des parlementaires sur le prélèvement à la source, sans pour autant donner son blanc-seing à cette mesure phare du budget 2017, et censuré la “taxe Google” visant les bénéfices détournés des multinationales opérant en France. Saisi par plus de 60 sénateurs et plus de 60 députés, le Conseil s’est prononcé sur 16 articles du projet de loi de finances pour 2017. Sur le prélèvement à la source, réforme majeure de ce texte budgétaire qui doit entrer en vigueur au 1er janvier 2018, les Sages ne se sont prononcés que sur quatre points principaux soulevés par les parlementaires et ne les ont pas censurés, ce qui n’empêche donc pas sa mise en place pour l’heure. En revanche, il a souligné que d’autres dispositions, sur ... Leer
  • guardian1 Trump praises ‘very smart’ Putin for not expelling US diplomats - Vladimir Putin has refused to engage in tit-for-tat diplomacy after the US expelled 35 Russian diplomats amid a row over cyber-hacking. Just hours after the Russian foreign minster said he was recommending a symmetrical response, Putin said his country had every right to make such a move but that he would not “drop to this level of irresponsible diplomacy”. He said his government would instead wait to see how relations developed under the incoming president, Donald Trump, who later described the Russian leader in a tweet as “very smart”. “We will make further steps to help resurrect Russian-American relations based on the policies that the administration of Trump will pursue,” the Russian president said in a statement on the Kremlin’s website. Putin, mindful that Trump will be in the White ... Leer
  • lesechos Comment la French Tech a changé de dimension en 2016 - L’année qui s’achève fut celle de tous les records pour les start-up françaises. Quatre levées de fonds majeures, trois mariages d’ampleur et… un enterrement avec le placement en liquidation judiciaire de Viadeo , racheté par Le Figaro pour la bagatelle de 1,5 million d’euros. Un vent nouveau souffle sur l’écosystème français des start-up porté par le dynamisme décomplexé de la nouvelle génération. Retour sur une année où la French Tech a brillé. Des mégalevées de fonds qui se multiplient Sigfox , (150 millions), Devialet (100 millions), Deezer (100 millions), LinkbyNet (50 millions) : les grosses levées de fonds se sont multipliées l’an dernier… Lisez la suite : Les Echos, 28.12.2016
  • Mall mayhem: Fights break out across the US - Massive brawls and food-court fights played out at more than a dozen malls across the country in what proved to be a chaotic day after Christmas. Some of the mayhem was captured on social media. The chaos prevented some shoppers from grabbing clothes off clearance racks and returning gifts. The mall incidents, which ranged from minor melees to mass evacuations, occurred from Colorado to Tennessee and Texas to New Jersey… Read more : CNN, 27.12.2016
  • dragnea Anger in Romania as president blocks female muslim as PM nominee - Romania was tipped to have its first female and first Muslim prime minister, until the country’s president on Tuesday rejected the Social Democrat Party’s nomination. The winners of a general election two weeks ago, the PSD is furious with the president, giving a strong reaction at a news conference. Liviu Dragnea, the PSD leader, said: “This man wants to trigger a political crisis in Romania.” “We will conduct a quick analysis and if, following this, we reach the conclusion that it is good for the country to suspend the president, I will not hesitate.” Romania’s president, Klaus Iohannis, said he carefully examined the pros and cons of the nomination and decided not to accept it, without giving reasons… Read more : Euronews, 27.12.2016