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2018, between economic upturn and restored prosperity

News on the economic front is less severe. The recovery is expected to continue in 2018, partly on the basis of these various returns to slight forms of protectionism; a protectionism which, for now, is structured on the basis of large national and supranational entities, and stays open. It is a realignment rather than a retreat, let’s say. This realignment prioritises the domestic markets of consumption and production (Chinese, American, European ones…) and manages to revitalise the production fabric, especially in countries which used to rely solely on finance to inflate their GNP, starting with the United States and England.

But this reindustrialisation is made possible by an increasing insecurity (low wages, precarious jobs, reduced social safety nets, inflation)[1]. Consequently, the economic upturn will not be synonymous with a restored prosperity. Taxation is not yet ready for that. In 2018, Europe and the United States will be caught in a schizophrenic interval between good news on the economic front and bad news on the social one… (fragment – GEAB 121 / January 2018)

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[1]   To begin with the European champion: Germany, as underlined by us in different bulletins (GEAB 120, 15/12/2017) – 17 % of Europeans live below the poverty line of their country (to 60 % of the average income).This proportion varies and gets even doubled, from 12 % of the population in the Netherlands to 25 % in Romania. Source: Observatoire de la précarité, 10/11/2017

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