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2020: the next global crash

Everyone seems to agree on a soft landing for 2019, if with rather gloomy figures. Landing the Plane is the Goldman Sachs title of their analysis for 2019, although some strategists are more pessimistic, especially regarding US and European growth prospects. Everything seems to hang on the impossible Brexit situation (both for the remainers and the Brexiteers): deal/no deal; hard/soft; Brexit/not Brexit… This is certainly the case for the EU, forced to stay in an extremely unfavourable wait-and-see attitude, while the rest of the world just keeps on turning. ‘Wait and see’ being just another English expression…

Goldman Sachs. Global Outlook 2019 – Goldman Sachs, 14/11/2018
Christophe Barraud. Ce qu’anticipe le meilleur prévisionniste du monde pour 2019 – BFM, 18/01/2019
JP Morgan. Prévisions 2019: Garder le cap mais réduire la voilure ! – MoneyStore, 26/11/2018
World Economic Outlook Update. January 2019: A Weakening Global Expansion – FMI, janvier 2019

On the other hand, 2020 will most probably open the door to significant turbulence, uncertainties and worries. The announcement of a global financial crash was made in September 2018 by JPMorgan Chase, the other major US bank. It has since been accepted by many analysts, strategists, financiers and economists, including Nouriel Roubini, Georges Ugeux, Talal Abu-Ghazaleh in Jordan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Jean-Claude Trichet, Mark Carney… Central banks and institutions are most certainly getting prepared for it…

JP Morgan’s top quant warns next crisis will feature flash crashes and social unrest not seen in 50 years – CNBC, 04/09/2018
10 years after Lehman, Mark Carney says another crisis could happen – CNN Business, 12/09/2018
J.P. Morgan Has a Date for the Next Financial Crisis—and It’s Not Far Off – Fortune, 13/09/2018
Ex ECB head Trichet: New financial crisis possible – teletrader, 04/09/2018
The 10 steps to a 2020 recession and financial crisis – Nouriel Roubini and  Brunello Rosa – Financial News, 18/09/2018
Nova crise à porta ? Economistas dizem que sim e falam em sinais evidentes – Jornal-i, 17/09/2018
Financial Crisis 2020 – ResearchGate, December 2018
EU bereitet sich mit Reformplänen auf die nächste Finanzkrise vor (l’UE lance ses réformes pour se préparer à la prochaine crise financière) – Finanzen100, 04/12/2018
Yellen warns of another potential financial crisis: ‘Gigantic holes in the system’ – CNBC, 11/12/2018
Pessimists are predicting a global crash in 2020. You can see why – The Guardian, 05/01/2019
Barclays-Chef: Nächste Finanzkrise wird höchstwahrscheinlich vom Kreditsektor ausgehen – Cashkurs , 26/01/2019

The global economy will never be the same again, that’s for sure. Both the US and Europe are on a downward slope. By 2030, the emerging states will have taken their place in the multipolar world, as we’ll see later. And it’s no coincidence that some people are wondering what investment is likely to be the most stable in a world sliding into recession.

Will We See A Recession And A Rally In Gold In 2019 Or 2020 ? – SeekingAlpha, 14/02/2019
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