This task is particularly risky this year. In 2021, our fates will be tightly held between the highly disruptive relaunch of the economy (an economy that has been considerably modernised, too) on the one hand and the ruins of the old model on the other. These ruins include vast swathes of jobs and immense anger in a section of the population that feels that it has lost its pride, work and reason for living in this transition. This tension is heightened by the wide-scale loss of our bearings, leading to a dangerous crisis of identity. On a geopolitical level, the fogginess of information has enabled many to advance some strategic pawns and their stabilizing power (or destabilizing) effect will be tested this year as the fog clears.
All this above means that we can foresee a year littered with worrying home truths (bankruptcy, economic crisis, popular anger, geopolitical risks) and reassuring certainties (modernization, digitalization, strengthening of new geopolitical players stabilizers – Israel, Russia, Europe). Above all, it promises big surprises (crisis of US legitimacy, bonds crash, energy shock, terrorism, war, and who knows what).
The titles of our trends:
- United States: THE major sticking point
- Information systems: From dense fog to disintermediation
- Covid 19: Slow return to “normal” with ups and downs throughout the year
- Relaunching the economy: Careful not to break it!
- Oil: Destructive outbreak
- China’s energy production: Game-changer
- US-China: 70% risk of new conflicts
- India: Another point of uncertainty
- Brazil: Turning of the country
- Russia: Low profile
- Transatlantic axis: Stronger and reversed
- NATO: Resurrection, Vision, Hope?
- EU: An engine running like clockwork
- Democracy: The great fear of peoples
- Employment: Endemic Uberisation
- Social 21: First drafts
- Digital/crypto currencies: A certain chaos
- US Dollar: On the decline
- Euro: The temptation of euro-dollar parity
- France: Towards a shock redefining its relationship with the EU
- Political Europe: Danger in sight!
- Identitarianism : Judeo-Christian Europe
- Vatican: Trend reversal
- Ethiopia: A potentially global danger
- Iran: A Lebanon-like scenario
- The peace process in the Middle East: Sudden jolt but no crash
- Eastern Mediterranean: A Crossroads of Worlds
- Energy: The Great Disruption
- Democracy 2024: Risks of cut-off
- Economic Model: Dual system
- Tax policies: Communicating vessels
- Inflation: Finally going up
- Real Estate: Oversupply
- Tourism: No upturn in sight
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