At a time when the monomaniac media is drawing a smokescreen in front of everyone’s eyes, the GEAB, as always, is focusing its radars on what is going on behind this screen to determine what kind of world is really emerging – rather than those that people are hoping for – reaffirming our characteristic principle of “real-futurism”.
For this next issue, we will push political anticipation to its limits, trying to look at the current crisis as historians would look at it in, let’s say, 2040. This stylistic exercise is intended to add temporal distancing to the spatial one through which the GEAB team is striving to detect current developments as early as possible.
On the societal level, this COVID crisis is proving everyone right: “it’s pollution,” “it’s fornication,” “it’s liberalism,” “it’s the CIA,” “it’s China,” etc. Everyone is seeing his theory validated by the crisis, his hour of glory arriving, his solutions being put in place. The mediasphere and social networks alike are filled with fake news and triumphal conspiracy theories, fuelling the formation of quasi-cults that will only become disillusioned at the end of the lockdown. And even if, we repeat, “the post-COVID world will be very different from the one before”, it will not be as different as many ideological contingents would hope.
All this leads us to anticipate a risk of further fragmentation of our societies, which governments on the verge of economic recovery will have no choice but to curb in a more or less authoritarian manner.
At the global level, this same trend is anticipating a new stage in global geopolitical dislocation through the emergence of continental models for crisis resolution.
With fragmented societies and dislocated global governance (financial and institutional), only the supranational, national and municipal regional levels are likely to provide solutions through the long-anticipated resumption of political control.
And the economies will follow this trend: managed economies, controlled strategic industries, refinanced public sectors, etc. Whilst, depending on the country, the appearance of liberalism may be preserved, the reality will be the decoupling of the economy of basic necessities and the economy of the superfluous, where the inflation of the latter will finance the expenditure linked to the former.
In short, we will be looking in detail at the deployment of this trend in the oil, airline and health sectors in particular.
So don’t miss it!
Main topics of the GEAB bulletin 144 :
. A historian-of-the-future’s view of the 2020 pandemic
. Role of States: The different forms of nationalisation in the 21st century
. Health systems and big data: What will a “global pandemic alert system” look like?
. US Oil: Towards a recovery?
. Tourism: What are the prospects for the airline industry?
. Investments, trends and recommendations