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The conflict will be resolved in the short term and will allow the region to integrate and open up to all its potential. This is what we presented last month, in line with our work on the future of the Middle East over the last seventeen years. This scenario stays solid, we think. However, it […]

Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]

One year on from the global recession: Navigating the new economy In September, JP Morgan’s monthly Global Manufacturing PMI recorded the twelfth consecutive global recession[1]. Just as we anticipated with inflation, recession is a lasting trend. We are entering a new economy in which a return to high interest rates (the norm), shortages and difficulties […]

Forests are far more than just verdant scenery. They are essential ecosystems, hubs of biodiversity, with a pivotal role in upholding ecological equilibrium and sustaining human existence. Among their myriad advantages, three significant roles are prominent: the stabilisation of soil, the preservation of drinking water and, maybe the most important one, forests are the lungs […]

As part of our reflections on the French-speaking world, multilingualism and the future of international languages, we wanted to talk to Sven Franck, a German living in France. He is also co-chair of the French list for the European elections for Volt, a pan-European party. This gives us the opportunity to anticipate the consequences of […]

Despite the “anti-French sentiment” currently sweeping Africa and suggesting that France is losing its appeal[1], we anticipate a renewed dynamism of the French language worldwide. The best proof will be when it regains its colours outside the institutions and funds responsible for its “defence”. One month before the inauguration of the Cité de la Langue […]

Logically, the international governance invented by the West after two world wars to create the conditions for peace was based on the defence of weak players (Palestinians, Armenians, Saharawis, etc.) against strong players (Israel, Azerbaijan, Morocco, etc.). It is morally undeniable that a peace system is designed to curb the expansionist ambitions of those who […]

The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]

Cheap oil is history As demonstrated in our economic panorama, oil prices will remain high in the short and medium term, driven mainly by the coordinated action of Russia and Saudi Arabia. What we need to remember about the BRICS+ expansion is that the United States is losing influence over the oil market. This trend […]

Africa, the last pawn on the global multipolar chessboard Egypt, Ethiopia[1], South Africa: Africa’s BRICS axis is more oriented towards the East, although it should be noted that Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, is also the capital of the AU (African Union), which opens a huge door to the continent. The geopolitical map of the […]

Adrien Hubert works in international cryptocurrency and Web3 circles more generally. He has set up several companies, including Geminy, of which he is CEO. He gives us his views, based on a wealth of economic data and publications, on the future reconfiguration of the global monetary system: BRICS, Dollar, digital Euro, MDBC, crypto-currencies… an overview […]

The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the traditional conservative right is living out its final hours, at least as an autonomous political force. This is due to the very strong polarisation of […]

Everyone knows that what doesn’t bend, breaks[1]. This is the short-term threat to the European Union’s economy. The supranational operation of its institutions is inflexible, and in the international economic competition in which it has found itself, it is up against much more agile competitors. At present, a fall in living standards, fuelled by inflation[2] […]

The diplomatic return revealed a clear advantage for the Global South in the concert of nations, marked by the BRICS summit in the first place, announcing an expansion to six new countries: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia, Iran and Argentina[1]. This decision demonstrates the confidence these countries have in their own […]

To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]

Artificial Intelligence: Jump on the bandwagon! After offering you several anticipations and analyses on the future challenges of AI in this issue, our team would now like to take a more practical approach to its traditional recommendations. This year’s technological breakthrough is the explosion in the number of AI tools available out there, often free […]

Fabienne Goux-Baudiment has a degree in political science and a doctorate in social sciences. She is the managing director of SAS, a study, research and consultancy centre in the field of foresight, proGective . Her main activity is to support public and private sector decision-makers in their future-oriented thinking and initiatives, both in France and […]

This is one of the most serious crises facing the space sector, particularly in the West, and it will determine the future balance of powers. Already listed as one of the “reality shocks” in last year’s special GEAB (July 2022), the issue of human resources is now crucial in the general ecosystem, where we will […]