Category: Perspective
© Kerozen Concept (AI generated image) In a world where upheavals are occurring with increasing frequency, it’s easy to value the constants. The American presidential elections are always a thrilling soap opera. The motherland of Hollywood knows how to captivate the attention of the rest of the world, and this season is no exception. With the traditional […]
© Kerozen Concept (AI generated image) Will the European project survive the Orwellian moment in which it finds itself entangled? The European Union, long asserting itself as the sole guarantor of peace on the continent, now appears ready to deploy its operations in service of war, all in the name of securing peace, of course. […]
The current surge in grandiose projects for cities conceived ex nihilo as pure utopias is a sign of the times… … a characteristic signal of multiple and simultaneous ruptures: the geographical shift of power and wealth, the concentration of stratospheric financial resources resulting from the oil-consumption era into a few hands and the maturation of […]
“Be greedy when others are fearful”[1] The great feature of 2024 is its jam-packed electoral calendar. This year, almost three billion people will be voting in 76 countries, including major ones like India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Algeria, Rwanda and, of course, the United States. All these countries find themselves in a […]
Similar to the gradual movement of continents, the reshaping of the global order is a protracted and gradual phenomenon when examined on a monthly scale. While marked by intense clashes that give rise to mountain ranges and definitive separations resulting in straits, seas, or oceans, geopolitical plate tectonics unfolds over an extended period. Between the […]
Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]
The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]
The diplomatic return revealed a clear advantage for the Global South in the concert of nations, marked by the BRICS summit in the first place, announcing an expansion to six new countries: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia, Iran and Argentina[1]. This decision demonstrates the confidence these countries have in their own […]
To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]
International relations and geopolitical tensions are fuelled by a myriad of factors, the most well-known of which is access to mineral resources and agricultural products. The microprocessor war reveals new tensions linked to the new economies.[1] Indeed, as soon as a resource essential to the smooth running of an economy becomes scarce, the framework for […]
The world is as big as we want it to be. Our team is dedicated to exploring the world’s geopolitical balances of power and opening a window on how they might evolve. While the future is the cornerstone of our editorial line, we also place the plurality of information at the heart of our work. […]
We hear a lot about the end of civilisation linked to the arrival of AI, which ChatGPT has made clear for everyone. Human beings would have no or very little added value from now on, AI would be so much more than HI… We have news from the future that is both reassuring and disturbing. […]
For 17 years, the GEAB has been characterising one by one the phases of the global systemic transition process. As of April 2023, it is very clear that the “new world” (led by the BRICS), after a slow and uncertain revival almost 15 years ago, is now beginning its take-off phase. The new world is […]
Dragging in its wake the Silvergate and Signature banks, the Silicon Valley Bank’s bankruptcy (SVB) remains the sad event illustrating this GEAB issue of March: as analysed/anticipated over the past three years, after the lyrical flights of Western tech at the start of the Covid crisis, painful returns to reality would inevitably be the batch […]
While the West is gradually withdrawing its assets from China in anticipation of worsening tensions between the West and the Middle Kingdom,[1] and is becoming aware that its reindustrialisation is facing innumerable difficulties (financial, environmental, human), India appears to be the ideal replacement solution: a large and cheap workforce,[2] a desire for development “at all […]
To begin this year, our team would like to warmly thank all of our readers who responded to the questionnaire we sent you in our previous issue. Many of you have expressed interest and enthusiasm in the idea of building a space for research, reflection and anticipation, in which we can share our knowledge and […]
Dear subscribers, As the year reaches its end, everyone is reflecting on what is behind and what is being built for the future. Our team is not exempt from this exercise and after 17 years of writing which have produced up to this issue No. 170, more than 5,000 pages of analyses, anticipations and recommendations […]
Did you like transhumanism? You will love posthumanism! If the first, while wishing an increase in human, still asserted its centrality, the second intends to exceed the human and humanism in order to place the tools it has created at the core of the construction. The prefixes are important: “trans” here indicates the notion of […]