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Transatlantic 21: The centre of gravity of the transatlantic relationship is shifting towards Europe

Since 2006, the global systemic crisis described by the GEAB has referred to the ‘system’ founded in 1945 in the aftermath of the WW2.[1] Nevertheless, at the heart of this world order is the transatlantic relationship, a link between the USA and Europe based on a double predicate: Europe needs the American guardian so that, […]

US Election 2020 – A New America takes over

The next US presidential election, despite its relatively normal exterior, is already showing some new features. For example: 1/ It’s not the main point of interest on the planet; 2/ Because of the pandemic, the Democratic primary did not really take place, but this did not prevent the nomination of the presumptive candidate; 3/ New […]

A Historian’s view of the COVID-19 Crisis

Political anticipation is LEAP’s method of “rationalisation of the future”.[1] In fact, it is very close to the “historical method” [2] in the sense that it is accessible to all and aids the social actor in adapting to the complex world which constitutes his new environment. Because of this, its practitioners have often been defined […]

What will post-COVID-19 Europe look like?

Reduced mobility,[1] the tourism crisis,[2] the green economy,[3] dematerialisation of the economy,[4] Euroland,[5] digitalisation of central bank currencies,[6] a radical reform of the international financial system, disruption of the European banking system,[7] the end of liberalism, a paradigm shift and, even, our anticipation of a stabilisation phase in 2020[8]… As we entered this new decade, […]

Decade 2020 – “Futuritis”: From a crisis of the future to totalitarianism

With the neologism futuritis, we wish to denote a disease of the future – a disease whose development process begins with a deficiency, followed by an eruption and ending with high fever. Future deficiency in the 2000s: The Internet was already here, as well as supranational levels of governance to be completed (the EU in […]

Geopolitics: 2020, a year under the sign of Mars

A non-exhaustive review of global risk by continents/regions Geopolitical tensions will dominate the year 2020. From the most structural to the most cyclical, the reasons are: The multipolar world is no longer content just doing business and now wishes to defend its trade routes and hunting grounds (Europe, China, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran […]

Editorial: A special GEAB issue on evaluation as a special year of innovation approaches

The coming year is not just any year, but 2020! LEAP is one of the offshoots of Franck Biancheri’s Reinventing Europe project inaugurated in Athens in 1998,[1] which gave birth shortly afterwards to the think-tank Europe2020, the immediate predecessor of the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP). For 21 years, 2020 has been the time […]

Global systemic crisis – 2020: The beginning of the stabilisation phase

The above title is provocative in a media world rightly focused on ecological catastrophes, popular discontent, risks of war and the financial crisis of 2020. But our mission is not to repeat what everyone knows – that the chaotic world of the beginning of the 21st century is a dangerous place… After all, hasn’t the […]

October 31, 2019: The great “coup de Trafalgar” of the Anglo-Saxons

As an overview and introduction to our GlobalEurope Future Agenda in 56 dates, we anticipate a year’s end full of surprises and reversals – ‘surprises’ in terms of mainstream media thinking, but in line with many of our past analyses. Brexit: Protectionist England or Protectionist Europe? At the heart of these trend reversals, there is […]

Bolton – World – US 2020: An American Perestroika

In line with our anticipations in 2006 regarding the fall of the second half of the bipolar system centred around Russia and the United States, the recent dismissal of Trump’s security adviser, the neo-conservative John Bolton, is in our view a historic event of the same symbolic significance as Gorbachev’s launch of perestroika[1]. By openly […]

Middle East Retrospective: 7 Scenarios for one Vision

This summer of 2019, in which the Middle East continues to be in the spotlight, we have found and gathered 7 scenarios which are emblematic of our vision of the region’s future. They will be presented here exactly as originally published. The originality of our team’s anticipations of the Middle East region’s future is thus […]

European Tourism 2020-2030: The improbable alliance between tourism and protectionism

Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth in the global flow of tourists, the EU will soon cease to be the world’s main tourist destination. We anticipate that, in 2025, Europe will lose its leading position to Asia. Over the next decade, […]

2010-2030: The disappearance of the European banking system as we knew it

Reports are currently proliferating concerning the health of the European banking sector ten years after its great crisis.[1] However, on the one hand, the European banks only managed to get out of it with public funds;[2] on the other, some behemoths are still seen as ticking time bombs[3] (Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank,[4] Monte Paschi[5]…). Finally, the […]

The new face of post-election Europe

There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]

Migration flows: The challenges of depletion

It may seem daring to say that major migratory invasions are not going to be part of the future of Europe at a time when the hard-won ‘Libyan lock’ following the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 is about to be broken again. However, we have arguments showing that, in the short to medium term, a […]

Towards a ‘Francophone Economic Sphere’ (FES)

Emmanuel Macron took power in order to serve a European agenda through the reintegration of France (marginalised since 2003[1] but without which there is no Europe) into the heart of the Concert of European Nations. The idea was that by showing goodwill through the making of reforms in conformity with the EU, France and its […]

GAFAM – Lilliputian states facing tech giants

One of the major challenges of our next decade will almost certainly be the relationship between nation states and the world’s major tech groups, known as GAFAM (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft). These companies are indeed extremely important within the global economy and they are becoming entities able to compete with and make an […]

European elections / Europe 2040: ‘And now for something completely different’

(A handbook for the actors of the European campaign) There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 in Maastricht), the upcoming elections will seal the vision it has held for 27 years. And […]