Home Telescope

Category: Telescope

2022: Strengthening the Franco-British European Defence Pivot

The post-election statement made by German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (“The idea of European strategic independence goes too far if it nurtures the illusion that we can ensure Europe’s security, stability and prosperity without NATO and the U.S.”)[1] requires France to revise its defence strategies and priorities. We anticipate that Macron’s desire to build a […]

Toolbox: Your 2021 Calendar

2021 is full of events that could not be held in 2020 due to the pandemic.  Some of these dates are still uncertain, and the 2021 Calendar that we’re setting out here may get overhauled, even though all the political economic and financial stakeholders have now gone through the digital looking glass and are holding […]

Through the Looking Glass – Overview in 34 Trends for 2021

After the year of “reflection” that the long Covid break of 2020 has provided humanity,[1] Year One of the World After, or the “Digital Age”, takes us on a trip “through the looking glass”.[2] Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass was written as a sequel to Alice in Wonderland in 1871, the year the German […]

Differentiating Impacts of the Covid-19 crisis: A Quick Geo-Economic World Tour

The Covid-19 crisis has not brought about anything new. It only focusses the trends that were already at work. In doing so, it widens the gaps. Once this has been established, it is important not to make mistakes in analysing these trends. But it would seem that the West can’t see the wood for the […]

How Well Did We Anticipate 2020? 67% Success Rate

As 2020 is not a year like any other, we are looking forward to a different kind of year-end self-evaluation. As we did not include the impact of a pandemic in our January forecasts, despite the virus already being on radars at that time, we were concerned for the outcome of our annual assessing of […]

2023 – Treaty of Lausanne Revisited: Towards an Eastern Mediterranean Community

Sanctions have been decided! Well, almost… Indeed, the Heads of State and Government of the 27 EU Member States decided, at the European Council meeting that has just taken place on 10-11 December on new sanctions against Turkey for its “drilling” activities in the Eastern Mediterranean that have been deemed illegal. Sanctions will be specified […]

Organised Crime, Terrorism, Espionage and Hackers… – Should we be Afraid of an Underworld Resurgence?

Last month, thanks to our junior team, we explored the mysteries of the cyber world. This first visit was very fruitful and is already taking us to a new set of anticipations. Criminal and terrorist organisations, secret surveillance-intelligence-operation agencies, communities of hackers, dealers… the fauna that populates this shadowy world is far from advised company. […]

2030 – The Amazon Risk and the Need to Rethink the Current Agricultural Model of the Americas

The Amazon is at risk of dying. We have known that for decades, but recent studies and political events have shown that the demise of the Amazonian rainforest is much quicker than previously thought. Paradoxically, the sector that most threatens the survival of the Amazon rainforest – agriculture – is also the one that will […]

Financial Markets in Turmoil, Endemic Violence, Stabilisation Needed: What Will the Next Catastrophe Be?

Even though the world is still counting its Covid deaths and assessing the consequences of this crisis onto its financial markets, economy and society, perhaps it is already time to wonder whether a second rogue wave is not already forming on the horizon, ready to sweep away the old Western socio-economic model next year. Contrary […]

First Steps in the Cyberjungle…

With this article, the LEAP team opens up to a still little-known dimension of the 21st century: the cyber-world, where a society is developing, interacting and operating outside of any legal framework, with very real impacts on our lives. Just as opening up to digital currencies has led us to exciting anticipations about the paths […]

Horizon 2030 – Re-Imagining Vehicles to Combine Private Cars and Public Transportation

In a period of uncertainty and with the morose predictions that have constantly plagued it over the last ten years, the European car industry has undoubtedly taken advantage of the covid crisis to take a more wholesome route. In spite of a severe indictment, what with the saturation of urban spaces, environmental problems, unacceptable dangers […]

2021 – Galileo and the United Kingdom: (A Slight) Breturn

The United Kingdom has not been in the EU since January 2020. As a result, it has been cut off from access to the European GPS system, Galileo, which it had previously been a major contributor both in terms of science and money. Since 31 December, the British army no longer has access to the […]

American Democracy: Towards some Healthy Questioning… and a Government of National Unity

Everyone knows that democracy in general is sick. Nevertheless, the West continues to base the legitimacy of its world ‘leadership’ on this supposed civilisational superiority. In the 1990s, the wars fought in the Middle East in the name of ‘democracy’ stirred hatred towards this fine principle,[1] contributing to a decline in its attractiveness. But the […]

US Tempted by Petroyuan

Remember! Back in 2017 we anticipated that Saudi Arabia would soon be selling its oil in yuan? This was a highly provocative hypothesis at the time, since the country was then one of the two pillars of the petrodollar system.[1] Two years later, it became clear that export flows of Saudi oil were making a […]

New-Tech – U-Turn!

Back to reality all round. And if there is one area that has been seized by acute “virtualisation” in the last decade, it is technology companies. They have found themselves at the heart of a collective fantasy of the transmuting human being into bits and digits. Without calling into question the strong trend to digitalise […]

2020-2030: From SpaceX to the next ‘Star Wars’

The arrival of private satellite launchers – inaugurated by SpaceX – is a major game-changer, opening the way for space privatisation. If we combine this trend with the older one of a multi-polarisation (since the arrival of China, India, Brazil, etc.) of the skies, as well as the diversification of the uses of space (observation, […]

November US Elections: Three scenarios in anticipation of an electoral crisis

Our last article on the American election dates from four months ago (‘US Election 2020 – A New America takes over’ – GEAB, 15 May 2020).[1] Among the many arguments suggesting a significant risk of process derailment, we identified concerns about the management of the election; we believed that the change in voting access was […]

EU-Africa 2025 : Moria Fires and souring relations, A Paper from our Junior Team

Europe’s largest refugee camp, Moria on Lesbos, has burned to the ground[1]. 12 000 people have lost the closest thing they had to a home and Europe’s politicians are issuing statements of shock and horror, even though they have been well aware of the drastic situation in Moria for years. NGOs go as far as […]