{"id":145015,"date":"2026-05-15T19:51:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T17:51:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/guerre-en-iran-de-la-desorientation-a-la-desoccidentalisation-du-monde\/"},"modified":"2026-05-16T16:54:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T14:54:15","slug":"war-in-iran-from-the-disorientation-to-the-de-westernisation-of-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/en\/war-in-iran-from-the-disorientation-to-the-de-westernisation-of-the-world\/","title":{"rendered":"War in Iran: From the disORIENTation to the de-WESTERNisation of the world"},"content":{"rendered":"

ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Anthony Trad, Geopolitical Analyst
\nChairman of Stradegy Advisory<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

For over 20 years, the GEAB has been studying the transition from a relatively simple Western-centred world \u2013 characterised by the absolute technological, cultural, political, financial and economic superiority of a historically coherent alliance of actors (\u2018the West\u2019) over the rest of the world \u2013 to a complex (multipolar) world \u2013 comprising a diversity of major players in relative technological equilibrium and possessing sovereign strategic assets. This diversification of major players has implications not only for international institutions and governance superstructures. All commercial and financial infrastructures, as well as the operating modes of all flows traversing the planet, are being changed. Unfortunately, reforming these mechanisms is proving more difficult than one might have hoped. And only major systemic shocks seem capable of breaking down the old system to allow the new one to emerge.<\/p>\n

Such was the case with the Covid crisis, which, by bringing global economy to a standstill, allowed new routes to open up, breaking the West\u2019s star-shaped supply network. The war in Ukraine, by creating a barrier of fire on the routes to the west for Russian gas and oil, is enabling all Russian energy flows to be redirected eastwards and southwards (to China and India in particular). The Israel-Iran conflict, meanwhile, is putting into perspective the centrality of the Middle East in terms of hydrocarbons and that of the Strait of Hormuz as the only route to a multipolar world hungry for energy: diversification will be essential\u2026 and, as a result, we must take a new step towards \u2018de-simplifying\u2019 the global system, which is vital to restoring its stability.<\/p>\n

In fact, of the 80-90% of trade that passes through the oceans, at least two-thirds passes through seven \u2018choke points\u2019<\/em> whose combined width is no greater than the distance between Paris and Brussels[1]<\/a>. Hormuz: 34 km. Malacca: 2.7 km. Bab el-Mandeb: 29 km. Suez Canal: 300 m. Bosphorus: 700 m. Panama: 33 m. Taiwan Strait: 130 km[2]<\/a>.\t\t

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