{"id":146383,"date":"2026-09-15T18:56:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T16:56:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/recommandations-septembre\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T18:56:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T16:56:29","slug":"recommandations-septembre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/en\/recommandations-septembre\/","title":{"rendered":"RECOMMANDATIONS (septembre)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Les recommandations ci-dessous sont issues d\u2019une d\u00e9marche d\u2019anticipation syst\u00e9mique propre au GEAB. Elles ne constituent ni des conseils financiers personnalis\u00e9s ni des incitations \u00e0 l<\/em><em>\u2019investissement. Dans un contexte de forte volatilit\u00e9 et de transition mondiale, chaque lecteur reste seul responsable de ses d\u00e9cisions. Il est recommand\u00e9 de croiser ces analyses avec d\u2019autres sources et, si n\u00e9cessaire, de consulter un professionnel agr\u00e9\u00e9.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Financement\u00a0: du carry-trade-yen \u00e0 l\u2019Asian Carry Ecosystem<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>La normalisation mon\u00e9taire japonaise pourrait progressivement fragiliser l\u2019une des grandes m\u00e9caniques financi\u00e8res des derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies : le yen <em>carry <\/em><em>trade<\/em>. Mais chercher quelle monnaie remplacera le yen risque de masquer une transformation plus importante. Le successeur du yen <em>carry <\/em><em>trade<\/em> pourrait ne pas \u00eatre une monnaie, mais un \u00e9cosyst\u00e8me asiatique distribu\u00e9 de financement, d\u2019interm\u00e9diation et de recherche de rendement. Les premiers \u00e9l\u00e9ments sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 visibles. Le yuan offshore (CNH) est utilis\u00e9 comme devise de financement. Lors du d\u00e9bouclage des <em>carry <\/em><em>trades<\/em> d\u2019ao\u00fbt 2024<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>, la Banque des r\u00e8glements internationaux<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> observait que le CNH s\u2019\u00e9tait comport\u00e9 comme une <em>funding<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>currency<\/em> : des positions courtes en yuan finan\u00e7aient notamment des expositions \u00e0 des monnaies asiatiques offrant davantage de rendement. En 2024 d\u00e9j\u00e0, Reuters documentait simultan\u00e9ment le d\u00e9veloppement de diff\u00e9rentes formes de yuan <em>carry <\/em><em>trade<\/em><a href=\"about:blank#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\"><em>[3]<\/em><\/a>. Mais le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne pourrait d\u00e9passer les <em>hedge<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>funds<\/em>. Derri\u00e8re le RMB se trouve une masse consid\u00e9rable d\u2019\u00e9pargne chinoise, tandis que la baisse des rendements domestiques (pendant que les rendements de la dette occidentale flambent, c\u2019est le contraire qui se\u00a0 passe c\u00f4t\u00e9 chinois\u00a0: le taux des obligations d&#8217;\u00c9tat chinoises \u00e0 10 ans a gliss\u00e9 pour s&#8217;\u00e9tablir \u00e0 1,68 % &#8211; 1,69 %<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn4\" name=\"_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a>) pousse assureurs, banques, gestionnaires d\u2019actifs, entreprises et \u00e9pargnants \u00e0 rechercher diversification et rendement<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn5\" name=\"_ftnref5\">[5]<\/a>. En 2026, les emprunts offshore en renminbi approchent ainsi le niveau record de 1.000 milliards de RMB, favoris\u00e9s par le faible co\u00fbt du financement chinois<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn6\" name=\"_ftnref6\">[6]<\/a>.\t\t<div class=\"oct_article_subscribe \">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_article_content_suscribe\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_article_content_suscribe__button \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_btn oct_btn_orange_inverse\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/geab.eu\/abonnement\/\">To read the full article, register now<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_article_content_suscribe__button\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_btn oct_btn_orange\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"#\" id=\"oct_suscribe_compte_login_modal_popup\">Already a subscriber? 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Elles ne constituent ni des conseils financiers personnalis\u00e9s ni des incitations \u00e0 l\u2019investissement. Dans un contexte de forte volatilit\u00e9 et de transition mondiale, chaque lecteur reste seul responsable de ses d\u00e9cisions. Il est recommand\u00e9 de croiser ces analyses avec d\u2019autres sources et, si [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-146383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RECOMMANDATIONS (septembre) - GEAB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RECOMMANDATIONS (septembre) - GEAB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les recommandations ci-dessous sont issues d\u2019une d\u00e9marche d\u2019anticipation syst\u00e9mique propre au GEAB. 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