{"id":146803,"date":"2026-10-15T16:02:31","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T14:02:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/presidentielles-francaises-2027-questionner-les-certitudes\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T12:28:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T10:28:21","slug":"french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/en\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\/","title":{"rendered":"French Presidential Elections 2027: Questioning political certainties"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>ANTICIPATION <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>An important presidential election will take place in 2027, the election of the next French president, who will inherit a stratospheric debt<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>, a geopolitically weakened France<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> and a major social crisis<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\">[3]<\/a>. Good luck to whoever takes on the job.<\/p>\n<p>The two rounds will take place in mid-April to early May. So there are still six months to go before polling day, and yet polls, analysts and candidates have been in full swing since even before the summer, locking horns, attempting to influence and commenting at length on every move made by the French political establishment.<\/p>\n<p>As for predictions, everyone is certain of one thing: Marine Le Pen\u2019s National Rally &#8211; RN (radical right or far right, depending on the source) will reach the second round<a href=\"about:blank#_ftn4\" name=\"_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a>. The only two questions are: \u2018against whom?\u2019 and \u2018can she win the second round?\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Whilst the GEAB\u2019s methodology involves questioning certainties, we do not share all our reflections with our readers, but only those that lead to a relevant hypothesis. In this case, we consider it useful to outline the scenario we currently favour, in which the RN is NOT in the second round.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The RN is leading in all the polls\u00a0\t\t<div class=\"oct_article_subscribe \">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_article_content_suscribe\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_article_content_suscribe__button \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_btn oct_btn_orange_inverse\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/geab.eu\/abonnement\/\">To read the full article, register now<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_article_content_suscribe__button\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_btn oct_btn_orange\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"#\" id=\"oct_suscribe_compte_login_modal_popup\">Already a subscriber? Sign in<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"oct_suscribe_compte_login_modal\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"oct_suscribe_compte_login_modal_container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"oct_suscribe_compte_login_modal_close\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"oct_suscribe_compte_login\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-notices-wrapper\"><\/div>\n\n\t\t<h2>Login<\/h2>\n\n\t\t<form class=\"woocommerce-form woocommerce-form-login login\" method=\"post\" novalidate>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<p class=\"woocommerce-form-row woocommerce-form-row--wide form-row form-row-wide\">\n\t\t\t\t<label for=\"username\">Username or email address&nbsp;<span class=\"required\" aria-hidden=\"true\">*<\/span><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Required<\/span><\/label>\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" class=\"woocommerce-Input woocommerce-Input--text input-text\" name=\"username\" id=\"username\" autocomplete=\"username\" value=\"\" required aria-required=\"true\" \/>\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"woocommerce-form-row woocommerce-form-row--wide form-row form-row-wide\">\n\t\t\t\t<label for=\"password\">Password&nbsp;<span class=\"required\" aria-hidden=\"true\">*<\/span><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Required<\/span><\/label>\n\t\t\t\t<input class=\"woocommerce-Input woocommerce-Input--text input-text\" type=\"password\" name=\"password\" id=\"password\" autocomplete=\"current-password\" required aria-required=\"true\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<p class=\"form-row\">\n\t\t\t\t<label class=\"woocommerce-form__label woocommerce-form__label-for-checkbox woocommerce-form-login__rememberme\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<input class=\"woocommerce-form__input woocommerce-form__input-checkbox\" name=\"rememberme\" type=\"checkbox\" id=\"rememberme\" value=\"forever\" \/> <span>Remember me<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/label>\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" id=\"woocommerce-login-nonce\" name=\"woocommerce-login-nonce\" value=\"2944843236\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_wp_http_referer\" value=\"\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146803\" \/>\t\t\t\t<button type=\"submit\" class=\"woocommerce-button button woocommerce-form-login__submit\" name=\"login\" value=\"Log in\">Log in<\/button>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"woocommerce-LostPassword lost_password\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/geab.eu\/en\/my-account\/lost-password\/\">Lost your password?<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/form>\n\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ANTICIPATION An important presidential election will take place in 2027, the election of the next French president, who will inherit a stratospheric debt[1], a geopolitically weakened France[2] and a major social crisis[3]. Good luck to whoever takes on the job. The two rounds will take place in mid-April to early May. So there are still [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-146803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-telescope-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>French Presidential Elections 2027: Questioning political certainties - GEAB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"French Presidential Elections 2027: Questioning political certainties - GEAB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ANTICIPATION An important presidential election will take place in 2027, the election of the next French president, who will inherit a stratospheric debt[1], a geopolitically weakened France[2] and a major social crisis[3]. Good luck to whoever takes on the job. The two rounds will take place in mid-April to early May. So there are still [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/geab.eu\/en\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"GEAB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/globaleuropeanticipationbulletin?fref=ts\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-15T14:02:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-16T10:28:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/geab.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-15-at-16.57.13.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"416\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"GEAB_AUTEUR\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"GEAB_AUTEUR\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/en\\\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/en\\\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"GEAB_AUTEUR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/79608f031b93aaf924b64d730c0d6d29\"},\"headline\":\"French Presidential Elections 2027: Questioning political certainties\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-15T14:02:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-16T10:28:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/en\\\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2027,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/en\\\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/Screenshot-2026-10-15-at-16.57.13.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Telescope\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/en\\\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/en\\\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/geab.eu\\\/en\\\/french-presidential-elections-2027-questioning-political-certainties\\\/\",\"name\":\"French Presidential Elections 2027: Questioning political certainties - 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