{"id":34807,"date":"2006-01-15T11:30:38","date_gmt":"2006-01-15T10:30:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/\/en\/crise-systemique-globale-le-grand-retour-de-leurope-brune-2\/"},"modified":"2023-10-12T19:22:56","modified_gmt":"2023-10-12T17:22:56","slug":"eu-a-constitutional-deadlock-and-the-crisis-of-the-analytical-system-ofon-the-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/en\/eu-a-constitutional-deadlock-and-the-crisis-of-the-analytical-system-ofon-the-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of\/on the EU"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this beginning \u00a0of 2006, \u00a0the project \u00a0of constitutional \u00a0treaty \u00a0is still at the centre \u00a0of most \u00a0EU discussions. Does this mean that the process of ratification is being rejuvenated or is it the sign of a profound deadlock in which the EU institutions and political leaders are stuck? What course will follow the EU between today and the June 2006 Summit, a summit first designed to mark the end of the \u201cthinking era\u201d initiated in June 2005?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The answer to these questions depends on three factors out of which the first will be analysed in this issue of the \u2018GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin\u2019 (GEAB) :<\/p>\n<ol style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>the capacity \u00a0of each member \u00a0state to determine \u00a0a strategy \u00a0concerning \u00a0the future of the constitutional project<\/li>\n<li>the capacity of the various European institutional players (EU and member states\u2019 institutions) to converge on this subject<\/li>\n<li>the possibility to identify politically realistic solutions integrating the objective consequences of the French and Dutch \u00ab Noes \u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The \u00a0failure \u00a0of the \u00a0constitutional \u00a0ratification \u00a0process \u00a0initiated \u00a0in 2004 \u00a0indeed \u00a0proved \u00a0that \u00a0some elements, previously regarded as key factors, were no longer relevant, such as those declarations of intent made by political leaders and governments, or such as those publications released by the EU institutions and some related \u201cauthorized bodies\u201d located either in Brussels or in our national capitals. All of them were convergent \u00a0before the French and Dutch referenda, \u00a0even in their analyses of a potential \u00ab No \u00bb (when these existed at the beginning of 2005) which concluded to the fact that \u00ab No- ist \u00bb countries were doomed be isolated amidst a fast and massive wave of ratification in the other member-states. \u00a0Every \u00a0one \u00a0knows \u00a0what \u00a0actually \u00a0happened; \u00a0and \u00a0today\u2019s \u00a0EU \u00a0is \u00a0still \u00a0sunk \u00a0in \u00a0the unforeseen (though not unpredictable, as proved by Europe 2020) of the May-June 2005 referenda.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We can thus consider \u00a0that one of the first consequences \u00a0of the French and Dutch \u201cNoes\u201d is the opening of a crisis of legitimacy of the entire analytical system of \/ on the European Union. The latter was indeed completely mistaken on a central subject. From an easily predictable project, the EU all of a sudden turned into a process defeating the quasi-totality of the resources specialized in the analysis of its evolution.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This situation generated a double paradox:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">. on the one hand, it triggered an interest, an increased need, to anticipate future events suddenly appearing more uncertain and unknowable due to the crisis initiated by those referenda<br \/>\n. on the other hand, the analysis and prospective system used for decades to envisage the evolution<br \/>\n. of the EU was largely discredited as being capable of providing reliable information&#8230; <em><strong>Read more in the <a href=\"https:\/\/geab.anticipolis.eu\/downloadgeab.php?bid=1&amp;type=pdf&amp;l=EN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GEAB No 1 \/ 16.01.2006<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this beginning \u00a0of 2006, \u00a0the project \u00a0of constitutional \u00a0treaty \u00a0is still at the centre \u00a0of most \u00a0EU discussions. Does this mean that the process of ratification is being rejuvenated or is it the sign of a profound deadlock in which the EU institutions and political leaders are stuck? What course will follow the EU [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3337],"tags":[3422,2471,377,712,2281,2408,621,674,2874,2413],"class_list":["post-34807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archives-en","tag-constitutional-deadlock","tag-crise-en","tag-crisis","tag-eu-en","tag-france-en","tag-franck-biancheri","tag-geab-en","tag-leap-en","tag-ue-en","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of\/on the EU - GEAB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of\/on the EU - GEAB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this beginning \u00a0of 2006, \u00a0the project \u00a0of constitutional \u00a0treaty \u00a0is still at the centre \u00a0of most \u00a0EU discussions. 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