Last February, LEAP\/E2020 anticipated that a global systemic crisis was to be triggered at the end of March. Today, three months later, LEAP\/E2020 \u00a0can anticipate that the initial phase of this crisis is about to be finished and that, as soon as the beginning of June 2006, the crisis will enter a phase of acceleration. Before detailing the main features of this new phase, LEAP\/E2020 would like to clarify the 4 different phases of a global systemic crisis.<\/p>\n
A global systemic crisis develops following a complex process where 4 phases can be distinguished, overlapping one another:<\/p>\n
. in \u00a0the \u00a0first \u00a0so-called \u00a0\u201ctrigger\u201d \u00a0phase, \u00a0a \u00a0variety \u00a0of \u00a0until \u00a0then \u00a0un-related \u00a0factors, \u00a0start converging and interacting in a way that is perceptible mostly by careful observers and central players<\/p>\n
. in the second \u00a0\u201cacceleration\u201d \u00a0phase, a large majority \u00a0of players \u00a0and observers \u00a0suddenly become aware that a crisis is there and that it has already begun to affect a growing amount of the system\u2019s components<\/p>\n
. in the third so-called \u201cimpact\u201d phase, the system starts to transform radically (implosion and\/or explosion) under the strain of cumulated factors, simultaneously affecting the whole system<\/p>\n
. in the fourth and last \u201cdecanting\u201d phase, the features of the new system born from the crisis begin to appear.<\/p>\n
In the present situation, LEAP\/E2020 \u00a0estimates that the initial trigger-phase \u00a0is about to finish and that, during June 2006, the world will enter a phase of acceleration of the crisis. Indeed, \u00a0in less than three \u00a0months, \u00a0many \u00a0certainties \u00a0as to the future \u00a0were\u00a0 turned \u00a0upside \u00a0down (\u00ab inescapable \u00bb dollar-denomination, \u00a0\u00ab return \u00bb to cheap oil, \u00ab peaceful \u00bb solution to the Iran\/USA conflict, \u00ab sustainability \u00bb of the US real-estate bubble, US \u00ab domination \u00bb over two other key global players \u2013 China and Russia,\u2026) and a great number of indicators now point at converging directions, all of them sources of unbalance for the current system (vertiginous \u00a0rise in gold and precious metals prices, escalation of inflationary pressures, increase of the interest rates, EURUSD approaching 1.30, large amounts \u00a0of central banks\u2019 reserves \u00a0being switched \u00a0to Euros, rise of Asian currencies, \u00a0stock market and currency crises developing in various areas in the world, growing amounts of articles published in the international and national press using words such as \u00ab krach, crisis, collapse, risk, conflict, \u2026 \u00bb )…<\/p>\n