While LEAP\/E2020 publishes the present GEAB issue, continuing its work of anticipation of a global systemic crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes two reports\u00a0which confirm the forecasts released by LEAP\/E2020 throughout the year.<\/p>\n
In these two reports, the IMF draws a disturbing picture of the risks weighing over the global economy. It analyses and comments at length the following trends: US real-estate bubble collapse, US economy recession, US Federal Reserve\u2019s dilemma regarding interest rates developments, long-term fall of the dollar, long-term rise of oil prices. These are precisely the economic and financial indicators used by LEAP\/E2020 to develop its forecast of a crisis.<\/p>\n
Collapse of US real-estate bubble<\/strong><\/p>\n LEAP<\/strong>\/E2020\u2013 15\/03\/2006:<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00abThe housing bubble really starts to burst\u2026 Some of the predictions made by LEAP\/E2020 have already become true, including the bursting of the housing bubble in the US (new home sales were down 5% in January 2006 compared to January 2005, the first time in 5 years this has happened; and the inventory of homes available for sale represents a 6-month supply since 1998). The end of the housing bubble will progressively impact US household consumption, which is highly dependent on growing mortgage-mortgage based household debt. In parallel, the slowdown in the housing sector will directly affect employment, since this sector alone has accounted for 40% of private jobs created over the past five years in the United States.\u00bb <\/em>(GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N\u00b03, 15\/03\/2006)<\/p>\n