{"id":6862,"date":"2015-04-15T19:53:44","date_gmt":"2015-04-15T17:53:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/\/?p=6862"},"modified":"2023-10-12T19:16:13","modified_gmt":"2023-10-12T17:16:13","slug":"summer-2015-from-the-end-of-the-greek-crisis-to-new-geopolitics-in-the-eastern-mediterranean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geab.eu\/en\/summer-2015-from-the-end-of-the-greek-crisis-to-new-geopolitics-in-the-eastern-mediterranean\/","title":{"rendered":"Summer 2015: from the end of the Greek crisis to new geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean"},"content":{"rendered":"

Excerpt : GEAB 94<\/a> \/ Apr 2015<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The Greek crisis is about to end\u2026 and it won\u2019t be a European cheque which saves it but the fact that Greece is about to find the money to pay off its debt itself. Russia? The US? \u2026<\/p>\n

Lack of political will to save Greece<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since 2009 the GEAB has repeatedly said that the Greek crisis was ridiculous in accounting terms compared to the EU\u2019s means and that its resolution was only a matter of political will\u2026 unfortunately absent on all fronts in 2014:<\/p>\n

. political weakness of Barroso\u2019s EU in particular, preventing Europe from solving the problem with a few cheques<\/p>\n

. the Greek political system\u2019s corruption, preventing any hope of solving the country\u2019s malfunctioning<\/p>\n

. German paralysis, unable to respond to the so-called paradoxical injunction between its interest in resolving the Greek crisis and its interest in not resolving it<\/p>\n

. the opposing political will of a whole bunch of Western players (financial, military, Greek oligarchs in particular), thriving on all the country\u2019s faults.<\/p>\n

But things have changed remarkably in these last few months\u2026<\/p>\n

The Greco-Turkish \u00ab\u00a0Cold War\u00a0\u00bb at the heart of the Greek crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n

To very briefly summarize, the residue of Greek archaism comes from the fact that it has never been able to free itself from its \u201cCold War\u201d with Turkey. But this situation is finally about to clear itself under the influence of the very large changes underway.<\/p>\n

A 200 year old simmering conflict with Turkey[1]<\/a>, in fact put the country under military tutelage. This tutelage showed itself particularly clearly during the Colonels\u2019 dictatorship (1967-1974) but didn\u2019t disappear with the end of this junta.<\/p>\n

Which is why Greece spends 2.5% of its GDP on its army, the highest proportion of military spending\/GDP of the whole EU 28 \u2013 followed by the UK and France (both 2.2%), then Portugal (2.1% \u2013 another aberration moreover\u2026). Globally, the biggest spender and by far is Saudi Arabia with 9%, followed by Israel at 6%[2]<\/a>; whilst the US spends 4.7%, Russia 4.2% and China 2.1% (2013 data)[3]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Only since 2010 has Greece, \u00ab\u00a0thanks\u00a0\u00bb to austerity measures, begun to be able to reduce this spending. But the inevitable collusion of interests between the institutional political forces and the military hasn\u2019t allowed it to go very far in this direction. The EU neither hasn\u2019t risked pushing Greece in the right direction from this point of view considering the fact that, besides the US, the major arms suppliers to Greece are Germany (25%) and France (12%), two key-giants of the Eurozone[4]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Turkish Stream to the rescue of the Greek crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n

But Syriza\u2019s election, a non-institutional party, to lead the country is a real revolution in this sense. The new Greek government thus has the advantage of being free of all of the Greek state machine\u2019s ancestral guardianship. And the pressures it faces to resolve the crisis quickly is forcing it to find strong and fast solutions. The reduction of the country\u2019s military budget is one.<\/p>\n

As we have already seen, an excellent opportunity now exists to resolve the 200-year-old Hellenic-Turkish crisis, provided by the proposed Russian gas hub on the Greco-Turkish border. For the record, Euro-Russian tensions led to Russia\u2019s abandonment of the South Stream pipeline project which was going to pass through Bulgaria but which the EU ruled infringed European competition rules. Right away Putin announced a replacement project this time centred on Turkey, turned into an energy hub\u2026 a naturally irresistible project for Erdogan[5]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But for this project to happen, Greece must also give its agreement. However, Euro-Russian tensions in 2014 would have made things really difficult for an institutional government, suitably obedient, forced to get into line with the EU\u2019s official policy of anti-Russian sulking. But for Tspiras, involved in a job of disputing and improving European policies, it\u2019s much less difficult to agree to go to Moscow and consider cooperating in the framework of such an attractive project.<\/p>\n

Thus, first having sent Varoufakis to see Lagarde in Washington a few days earlier[6]<\/a>, Tsipras went at Putin\u2019s invitation and the foundations were laid for a Greco-Russian \u201cmemorandum of cooperation\u201d[7]<\/a>. Turkish Stream will distribute the gas, not only Russian but perhaps from elsewhere[8]<\/a>, to Europe via Greece. And the major distribution crossroads will even be located on the Greco-Turkish border, de facto<\/em> putting an end to the \u201cHelleno-Turkish Wall\u201d.<\/p>\n

Therefore, it\u2019s not surprising to see, in the wake of Tsipras\u2019 visit to Putin, the characteristic signs of goodwill between Greece and Turkey[9]<\/a>, nor exuberant optimism from the UK Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, on the resolution of the Cypriot problem. And the fact is that UK has some interest there…<\/p>\n

And oil suddenly appears !<\/strong><\/p>\n

Because the third converging axe of the Greek crisis\u2019 resolution (and the Greco-Turkish one in its wake) is Eastern Mediterranean oil. The media don\u2019t mention it much but Greece rests on huge hydrocarbon deposits[10]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The previous government had grasped the dossier, already seeing it as a solution to its economic crisis as well as its geopolitical structural crisis. Thus it signed exploitation and development contracts for three sites with Canadian, UK and European (Italian and Irish) companies in May 2014[11]<\/a>. But its enthusiasm had to cool slightly when it was forced to recognize that rather than reducing tensions with its Turkish neighbour as hoped, the project seemed to revive them[12]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Greece isn\u2019t the only country to have discovered deposits in the eastern Mediterranean. They can also be found off the Israeli, Lebanese, Syrian and Cypriot coasts\u2026[13]<\/a><\/p>\n

At of this stage, the only country to have dared to start moving its pawns and begin exploitation is Israel. As regards all the other countries, exploration is so risky in geopolitical terms that progress is extremely slow.<\/p>\n

There are further deposits along the Albanian[14]<\/a> and Italian Adriatic coasts. The exploitation of Greek hydrocarbon deposits at the junction of the Balkans and the Middle East has all the ingredients of a multiregional conflagration.<\/p>\n

Towards new geopolitics in the eastern Mediterranean<\/strong><\/p>\n

Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics must therefore change considerably for anyone who gives the go-ahead for the exploitation of these deposits.<\/p>\n

And this is precisely what is now happening with the detent between Greece and Turkey now in view which provides a favourable context for Greece\u2019s exploitation of its deposits in exchange for Turkey becoming a gas distribution crossroads\u2026 and why not oil.<\/p>\n

Indeed, in the wake of a giant gas pipeline network\u2019s construction, doubling up with an oil pipeline could undoubtedly be done for relatively little extra cost. Thus Turkish Stream could also provide an answer to the question that one cannot help but ask: will Greece be saved at the cost of continual oil spills in its idyllic islands?<\/p>\n

The fact is that our team has often asked itself, since 2009, if Europe really can\u2019t afford the Greek paradise and if it\u2019s really necessary to cover the Cyclades with factories, turning them into a Ruhr Gebiet<\/em>[15]<\/strong><\/em><\/a>, to satisfy the Germans\u2019 principles of economic responsibility<\/p>\n

It\u2019s likely that Greece will satisfy the Germans by becoming an oil producing country\u2026 but hoping that environmental damage will be limited thanks to the possibility of the exploration zones\u2019 direct connection to the Turkish-Russian distribution network. Let\u2019s hope from this point of view that no one skimps on the choice of the most reliable drilling technology in the world\u2026 and that the EU will impose this choice on private operators. Greece alone, under pressure to survive, undoubtedly hasn\u2019t the means.<\/p>\n

End of\u00a0 the arm wrestling competition between oil and weapons\u2026 but not of History<\/strong><\/p>\n

In this power struggle between oil interests and military interests, our team believes that oil has already won; the signs which enable us to say so are stemming from the current reorientation of the Western arms markets. The contracts recently signed by Dassault in Egypt and India could be to compensate for those that they will no longer sign with Greece\u2026 and Russia[16]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Germany also is turning irresistibly towards Egypt, but also Saudi Arabia\u2026 which also asks a lot of questions moreover[17]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With the prospect of savings on military spending, savings on the price of gas[18]<\/a> and oil profits, in a world where everything is anticipation, Greece will soon become solvent again.<\/p>\n

Therefore, if our team anticipates that solutions to the Greek crisis are going to \u201cmiraculously\u201d appear between now and this summer, we are also aggrieved that a debt crisis which could have been very quickly resolved by Europe and political will will be ultimately<\/em> resolved by Russia\/Turkey and greed.<\/p>\n

But the key is that we stop talking about the Greek crisis, that Tsipras\u2019 methods are given credit for that, and that one more European Wall falls this year, paving the way to new geopolitics on the borders of Europe and the Middle East, based on well thought out cooperation (i.e. between equals).<\/p>\n

On the basis of a \u201cmemorandum of understanding\u201d between Turkey and Greece on the horizon from this summer, let\u2019s hope for the creation of a \u201cMediterranean organization of oil producing countries\u201d gradually bringing other former enemies together and founding a new model for the essential international governance of energy which has every chance of being multi-polar too.<\/p>\n

If such stakes are poorly managed, this \u201cattractive\u201d solution will quickly turn into a nightmare. But the end of the Greek crisis isn\u2019t, of course, the \u201cend of history\u201d\u2026 so goes the world.<\/p>\n

Read the GEAB 94<\/a><\/p>\n

______________________<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Greek-Turkish relations<\/a>, Wikipedia<\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> The sums spent by Israel and Saudi Arabia on defence are huge enough to suggest that these two countries\u2019 gradual disarmament is a real challenge for world peace. We must just hope that this objective of disarmament doesn’t happen through the use of this weaponry.<\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> Source\u00a0: The World Bank<\/a>, 2013<\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> We recommend a reading of Frank Slijper’s excellent analysis of insane Greek military spending. Source\u00a0: ExploreGreece<\/a>, 02\/03\/2015<\/p>\n

[5]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Reuters<\/a>, 01\/12\/2014<\/p>\n

[6]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Deutsche Welle<\/a>, 05\/04\/2015<\/p>\n

[7]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Daily Sabah<\/a>, 10\/04\/2015<\/p>\n

[8]<\/a> It would probably only depend on Europe “connecting” Algerian or Iranian gas, as well as Russian gas, to the Turkish terminal in the framework of its policy for energy independence.<\/p>\n

[9]<\/a> Source\u00a0: World Bulletin<\/a>, 09\/04\/2015<\/p>\n

[10]<\/a> Source\u00a0: GeoExPro<\/a>, 2014<\/p>\n

[11]<\/a> Source: Enikos<\/a>, 15\/05\/2014<\/p>\n

[12]<\/a> Source: The Guardian<\/a>, 10\/11\/2014<\/p>\n

[13]<\/a> Source: Nexity\/Le blog Finance<\/a>, 28\/12\/2013<\/p>\n

[14]<\/a> “Events” may also happen on the Albanian side, directly related to negotiations over the exploitation of Greek deposits. Indeed, if Greece has a hold over Albania on its European candidacy, Albania has a hold over Greece on its hydrocarbon deposits, and that will be a give and take. A track has recently been suggested by the Albanian the president’s statements over Kosovo’s “return” to the greater Albania\u2026 which made the Serbian president as well as Mogherini scream\u2026 but the show isn’t over. A Great Albania in exchange for Greek oil? Source: EUObserver<\/a>, 09\/04\/2015<\/p>\n

[15]<\/a> Germany’s industrial region par excellence<\/em>. Source: Wikipedia<\/a><\/p>\n

[16]<\/a> Source\u00a0: International Business Time<\/a>, 11\/04\/2015<\/p>\n

[17]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Deutsche Welle<\/a>, 11\/04\/2015<\/p>\n

[18]<\/a> Source\u00a0: NewEurope<\/a>, 12\/04\/2015<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Excerpt : GEAB 94 \/ Apr 2015 The Greek crisis is about to end\u2026 and it won\u2019t be a European cheque which saves it but the fact that Greece is about to find the money to pay off its debt itself. Russia? The US? \u2026 Lack of political will to save Greece Since 2009 the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,56],"tags":[386,172,238,173,299,445,300,240,175,286,302,444,288,304],"class_list":["post-6862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-focus-en","category-magazine-en","tag-2015-en","tag-crise-systemique-en","tag-europe-en","tag-finance-en","tag-grece-en","tag-greek-crisis","tag-investissements-en","tag-modele-occidental-en","tag-petrole-en","tag-qe-en","tag-recomendations-en","tag-summer-2015","tag-syriza-en","tag-troika-en"],"yoast_head":"\nSummer 2015: from the end of the Greek crisis to new geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean - GEAB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Summer 2015: from the end of the Greek crisis to new geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean - GEAB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Excerpt : GEAB 94 \/ Apr 2015 The Greek crisis is about to end\u2026 and it won\u2019t be a European cheque which saves it but the fact that Greece is about to find the money to pay off its debt itself. 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