Revue de Presse

Global Systemic Crisis

  • FRANCIA UE:STR002. ESTRASBURGO (FRANCIA), 01/02/2016.- El presidente del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), Mario Draghi, participa en el debate del informe anual de la entidad de 2014, en el Parlamento Europeo de Estrasburgo, Francia, el 1 de febrero del 2016. EFE/Patrick Seeger 2017-2020, Euro crisis: A compromise solution for a non-democratic Euroland - In the GEAB no 109 of November 2016 we wondered if “the euro would survive beyond the year 2017”. Five months later, we wish to deepen and complete our analysis. One reason for the weakness of the euro comes from the political anaemia of the euro zone, which is ultimately far too un-integrated to afford a single currency, or (the other side of the coin, if we may say it this way) afford misconceptions around this single currency for a heterogeneous zone. The well known thesis driving us on this topic is the anchoring of the governance of the single currency in a common democracy which would immediately set in motion all the principles of solidarity, of economic convergence and upgrading, which would be required in order to make the ... Lire
  • guardian Mélenchon puts left in contention as French election becomes too close to call - Will the real Jean-Luc Mélenchon stand up? On Tuesday, Mélenchon, the rising star of the French presidential election, will appear in the eastern city of Dijon. Simultaneously a 3D hologram of the veteran hard-left politician will be beamed to six other French cities. He may not literally be there, but just days from France’s heavily contested leadership vote “JLM” will be attempting to show that his programme has more substance than his ethereal appearance might suggest. In an election where historic and “never before” moments have become commonplace, the spectacular rise of Mélenchon has crossed a new line. Pollsters agree he is now a serious challenger to Les Républicains candidate François Fillon, who is in third position. Whether he can go further is anyone’s guess. The favourites to make the ... Lire
  • scmp33 28 heads of state confirm attendance at China’s belt and road summit next month - Heads of state from more than two dozen countries will attend a major summit in May to discuss China’s new Silk Road initiative, said foreign minister Wang Yi, although there is a notable absence of leaders from major Western countries. The summit, scheduled to be held on May 14 and 15 in Beijing, will be China’s major diplomatic event this year as it pushes ahead with President Xi Jinping’s flagship “Belt and Road Initiative” to launch a series of infrastructure projects across Asia, Europe and Africa. Top leaders of 28 countries had confirmed they would attend the summit, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang and Myanmar’s leader Aung ... Lire
  • IMF Panel Drops Anti-Protectionist Pledge in Nod to Trump View - Global policy makers dropped another pledge to resist protectionism on trade, as Donald Trump’s election win continues to shake up the consensus at gatherings of finance ministers and central bank governors. A communique from the IMF’s steering committee, released Saturday in Washington, said that officials “are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.” Such language echoes a statement last month from Group of 20 nations reflecting the Trump administration’s call to rethink the global order for commerce. Like the G-20 communique, the committee’s statement omits a call from its last statement in October to “resist all forms of protectionism.” The Trump administration has threatened to raise tariffs if partners don’t agree to renegotiate trade agreements and create fairer conditions for U.S. goods. Since the joint statements at gatherings such ... Lire
  • H.E. Ms Federica Mogherini High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission and H.E. Mr YANG Jiechi, State Councilor at a press point after their meeting at Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing, China China and EU push for global free trade - Top diplomats from the EU and China have pledged closer cooperation on trade and geopolitical issues amid concerns about US protectionism under president Donald Trump. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini co-chaired the seventh EU-China Strategic Dialogue with state councilor Yang Jiechi, China’s highest-ranking diplomat, in Beijing on Wednesday (19 April) in their first high-level meeting since Trump took office in January. “We are living times of growing tensions and geopolitical unpredictability, so our cooperation has never been so important,” Mogherini said after the meeting. “China and EU are global powers, we have a joint responsibility to work together towards a more cooperative, rule-based global order,” she told reporters. Mogherini said the EU-China strategic partnership had reached an “unprecedented level of maturity”. China was keen to cast itself as a ... Lire
  • 24matin Elections françaises : ça change tout ! - Dans une Europe « ré-atterrie » au niveau national, le résultat de l’élection présidentielle française donnera bientôt une indication claire sur les pistes de recomposition de l’UE. Une anticipation à ce stade n’a pas beaucoup d’intérêt. Nous avons toujours dit que cette campagne était atypique à bien des points de vue et que bien malin qui pourrait en prédire l’issue. Aujourd’hui, force est de constater que les évidences dans lesquelles on a essayé d’enfermer les Français ont cessé d’en être. L’inévitabilité de la présence de Marine Le Pen au second tour, le « devoir moral » du vote Macron pour la contrer au second tour, est une stratégie de manipulation des opinions à laquelle les Français ne se sont pas tant que cela laissés prendre. Ce que nous appelons le piège « la raison ou ... Lire
  • gatew IMF spring meetings: projecting a pickup - The 2017 Spring International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings begin later this week. Despite the tide of populism and geopolitical uncertainties, the global economic recovery is gaining traction. Have we reached a turning point? And are global reform commitments needed to sustain the recovery? The short answer to both questions is yes and yes. The growth outturns in the second half of last year have generally strengthened in the first quarter. Market sentiment has been rising, manufacturing and confidence indicators have picked up, and global trade volumes and commodity prices are rising. The world is clearly witnessing a strong cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade. The IMF is likely to project a pickup in global growth this year and next—closer to 4%—compared to just over 3% in 2016… Read ... Lire
  • Venezuelan protests against government leave three dead - Two Venezuelan students and a National Guard sergeant died on Wednesday after being shot during protests against unpopular leftist President Nicolas Maduro, increasing turmoil in the volatile nation amid a devastating economic crisis. Opposition supporters protested in Caracas and other cities in what they called “the mother of all marches,” denouncing Maduro for eroding democracy and plunging the oil-rich economy into chaos. Crowds swelled to hundreds of thousands, including Maduro supporters who held a counter-demonstration in the capital at the urging of the president, and clashes were reported across the country during the most sustained protests since 2014… Read more : Reuters, 19.04.2017
  • geab 114 pic The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin – April edition is now available! - PERSPECTIVES Global Systemic Crisis 2017-2021 – A phase of chaotic recomposition of the World: national re-landing, crash or rebound? This expression “chaotic recomposition” seems best to summarise the phase where we currently are with regards to the development of the crisis, a step indicated here as extending over four years and which will include distinct progression phases. It is quite clear that efforts to reorganise the world on a transnational logic have all failed in this first half of 2017 … Sub-chapters: -Stylistic exercise: what might the Middle East look like in 2021? -Latin America: the end of the Bolivarian left wings -European Union / United Kingdom: same challenge of union reinvention \ -French elections: everything changes! Read more in the GEAB 114 TELESCOPE Euro governance / Horizon 2020: The ... Lire
  • gibr A rocky approach to Gibraltar’s sovereignty - Peter Hain’s 2002 co-sovereignty negotiations with Spain were conducted over the heads of the Gibraltarians, against their wishes, and in the knowledge that any co-sovereignty proposal would be rejected if put to the people in a referendum (Joint sovereignty of Gibraltar is win-win, says former minister, 6 April). The timing of the negotiations may explain why they went ahead anyway. The Blair government was working hard to convince the Spanish government to back the invasion of Iraq, in the face of overwhelming opposition among the Spanish public. Eventually, as Hain notes, it was Prime Minister Aznar who pulled the plug on the co-sovereignty proposal. The Spanish government could be persuaded to support an illegal war, but it was never going to accept a deal over Gibraltar that did not lead, ... Lire
  • scmp2 Will China stay the course to cleanse its corruption-ridden financial system? - Andy Xie says with regulators making serious moves to rein in excesses, Beijing must also recalibrate its policy and bring monetary growth in line with economic growth, even at the risk of recession, because financial health is vital. The central government is tightening risk control in the banking system and launching a broad-based anti-corruption campaign in the financial system. This is the first major attempt to reverse the trend of China’s economy turning into a financial Ponzi scheme since 2003. The creation of high-risk credit has come to a screeching halt. But, as economic slowdown is sure to follow, would China bite the bullet and follow through with the necessary cleansing and reform of the country’s financial system? China’s economy has been in stop-and-go mode since 2012, when renminbi appreciation ... Lire
  • scmp British Prime Minister Theresa May calls for early election on June 8 to strengthen Brexit hand - British Prime Minister Theresa May called on Tuesday for an early general election on June 8 in a surprise announcement as Britain prepares for delicate negotiations on leaving the European Union. “We need a general election and we need one now. We have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done … before the detailed talks begin,” May said, despite previously denying that she would do so. Speaking outside her Downing Street residence in London, May warned that “division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit”. She said parliament would be asked to vote on Wednesday to decide on whether or not to hold an election… Read more : SCMP, 18.04.2017
  • sputnik Russia’s Envoy to EU Calls for Strategic Partnership Which is ‘Long Overdue’ - Moscow’s envoy to the European Union called for reestablishing dialogue and partnership between Russia and the bloc. Russia’s Permanent Representative to the European Union Vladimir Chizhov said Tuesday that the time for a bilateral strategic partnership is “long overdue.” “The moment has not only come, but it is even long overdue. It is necessary to look at the fields and areas of cooperation that meet the pressing needs of both sides,” Chizhov told reporters. Since 2014, relations between Russia and the European Union and the United States, deteriorated amid the crisis in Ukraine. Brussels, Washington and their allies introduced several rounds of sanctions against Russia on the pretext of its alleged involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, which Moscow has repeatedly denied. In response to the restrictive measures, Russia has imposed a food embargo on some products originating in countries that have targeted it with sanctions… Source : Sputniknews, 18.04.2017
  • alj2 Will China intervene in North Korea? - North Korea is in the headlines – again. For a small, poor country of 25 million people, it sure does make a lot of news. This time it’s the perennial issue of nuclear testing. North Korea has tested five nuclear devices since 2006. Donald Trump is in no mood to allow a sixth. Just days before his Florida summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump vowedthat “if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will.” Then, just after the summit, he backed up his pledge by ordered an aircraft carrier strike group to the region. Most people agree that North Korea is a problem. Aside from its nuclear tests, it also stands accused of state-sponsored counterfeiting of foreign currencies, the industrial-scale manufacture and sale of illicit drugs, and even ... Lire
  • bloom China’s Economy Accelerates as Retail, Investment Pick Up - China’s economy accelerated for a second-straight quarter as investment picked up, retail sales rebounded and factory output strengthened amid robust credit growth and further strength in property markets. Gross domestic product increased 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, compared with a 6.8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. It was the first back-to-back acceleration in seven years. Other indicators released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed: Fixed-asset investment excluding rural areas expanded 9.2 percent for the first three months, accelerating from 8.1 percent growth last year Retail sales increased 10.9 percent from a year earlier in March, compared with a median estimate of 9.7 percent in a Bloomberg survey Industrial output rose 7.6 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with an estimated 6.3 percent rise ... Lire
  • alj Turkey referendum: Erdogan’s AK Party claims victory - Turkey’s leaders claimed victory for the “Yes” campaign in the referendum to amend the country’s constitution and grant the presidential office new executive powers. The changes voted for on Sunday transform Turkey’s governance from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency, significantly expanding the powers of the top office. “I pray the outcome will bring auspiciousness to our country,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a news conference in Istanbul. “The president will serve the country bearing in mind one nation, one flag, one state… The referendum is over and the debate prior to that is over.” As of 20:00GMT on Sunday, the “Yes” campaign was leading with 51.3 percent to 48.7 percent with 99 percent of votes counted. The changes were backed by the governing Justice and Development Party (AK ... Lire
  • bloomberg U.S. Says It’s Encouraged by China’s Help Pressing N. Korea - The U.S. has gotten encouraging signs that China will act to pressure Kim Jong Un’s regime to dismantle its nuclear weapons program, a State Department official said, but the Trump administration is holding on to military action — alone or with allies — as an option. While Susan Thornton, acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said the U.S. wants to work with China to ease tensions, she declined to say Monday whether the U.S. is closer to acting on its own to counter the threat from North Korea. “I can’t telegraph any specific response, but there’s definitely a feeling that we are determined and resolved to not let North Korea continue to undertake these threatening behaviors,” Thornton said on a conference call with reporters. “We’re ... Lire
  • retail US retail sales fell 0.2% in March vs 0.1% drop expected - U.S. retail sales fell for a second straight month in March amid softening demand for automobiles, suggesting economic growth slowed abruptly in the first quarter. The Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales dropped 0.2 percent last month. February’s retail sales were revised down to show a 0.3 percent decrease instead of the previously reported 0.1 percent gain. February’s drop was the first and biggest in nearly a year. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales slipping 0.1 percent last month. Compared to March last year retail sales increased 5.2 percent. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rebounded 0.5 percent after a downwardly revised 0.2 percent decline in February. These so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross ... Lire
  • Stocks Decline Amid Mounting Geopolitical Unease: Markets Wrap - U.S. stocks fell as the U.S. launched a heavy bombing campaign against Islamic State positions in Afghanistan. The S&P 500 Index closed down 0.68 percent at 2,328.96 Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.67 percent to 20,453.25. The dollar rose slightly after dropping below its 200-day moving average on Wednesday. Treasuries were flat, erasing earlier declines. “It’s just creating more uncertainty with people,” Frank Ingarra, head trader at NorthCoast Asset Management LLC, which oversees about $1.7 billion, said by phone. “It’s the only big news that’s come out. Does it mean we’re going to be more militarily engaged in the world?” In addition, traders are trying to get a handle on President Donald Trump’s fiscal and economic plans following his remarks from Wednesday, in which he called the dollar too ... Lire
  • dw Kashmiri youth: The new face of violent resistance against Indian rule - The Indian government was forced to postpone by-elections in Kashmir due to violent protests. Clashes between protesters and security forces have continued for months, with experts pointing to a new resistance movement. Srinagar is once again volatile after weekend violence forced the government to postpone by-elections. At least eight people were killed and more than 200 were wounded during clashes between protesters and police. And authorities said Monday they killed four suspected rebels who were attempting to cross into the India-administered Kashmir from the Pakistani section. The initial turnout of voters in the Srinagar by-election was just 7 percent – the lowest anywhere in India-administered Kashmir in almost three decades. Kashmiri separatists had called for a boycott of the polls. Violent protests completely paralyzed Budgam, a city which recorded a 60 ... Lire
  • euobs EU scrambles meeting over border chaos - The European Commission is scrambling experts from member states to meet in Brussels following traffic chaos and huge traveller delays over new security rules at the external borders. “When it comes to lengthy queues we are in contact with several member states and we are going to have an expert meeting this week to address these issues,” an EU commission spokesperson told reporters on Monday (10 April). The rules are part of a larger anti-terror effort after EU nationals that had fought alongside militant extremists in Syria then returned to launch attacks in Paris. National authorities are required as of last week to ID check, using security databases, every EU citizen that leaves or enters the outer fringes of the Schengen area of 26 EU states. The task is large. ... Lire
  • herald Thousands march to Union Buildings in anti-Zuma protest - Rival South African opposition parties joined forces on Wednesday when tens of thousand demonstrators marched through the capital Pretoria calling for President Jacob Zuma to resign. The march to Union Buildings, the official seat of government, was organised on Zuma’s 75th birthday and came after nationwide rallies against the president last week. Zuma’s recent sacking of respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan has fanned years of public anger over government corruption scandals, record unemployment and slowing economic growth. Supporters of the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), and smaller parties mingled at Wednesday’s demonstration in a display of unity. Police said the event had been peaceful. “You came out in large numbers and sent a strong message,” EFF leader Julius Malema told the crowd. “We ... Lire
  • dw Germany’s Gabriel praises Serbia as source of stability - Serbia should improve its ties with Kosovo and continue working on reforms, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said in Belgrade. He also described the current wave of anti-goverment rallies as a “part of democracy.” Germany is ready to support Serbia’s on its way to joining the EU, Gabriel said after meeting Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic on Wednesday. “We believe that the path that [Serbia] wants to take is a good one,” Gabriel said after kicking off his mini-tour of the Balkans. At the Belgrade press conference, the German representative warned that “old demons” were waking up in some parts of the Balkans, but praised Serbia as an “anchor of stability” that helps reduce tensions. Ties with Kosovo ‘essential’ Germany’s foreign minister is also set to visit Kosovo on Thursday, followed ... Lire
  • US drops largest non-nuclear bomb ever in Afghanistan - The Pentagon said U.S. military forces dropped the largest non-nuclear bomb in Afghanistan on Thursday. This is the first time the GBU-43 bomb, known as the “mother of all bombs,” has ever been used in combat, according to Adam Stump, the Pentagon spokesman. The bomb contains 11 tons of explosives and is formally known as the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb. “As ISIS-K’s losses have mounted, they are using IEDs, bunkers and tunnels to thicken their defense,” General John W. Nicholson, commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, said in a statement. “This is the right munition to reduce these obstacles and maintain the momentum of our offensive against ISIS-K.” Stump says the bomb was dropped on a cave complex believed to have Islamic State fighters according to the Associated ... Lire
  • Two Months In, Trump Finds Big Promises Are Hard to Keep - President Donald Trump’s declaration that he won’t label China a currency manipulator stands as the clearest example of the difficulty he’s having delivering on big campaign promises. Trump backed away from a signature pledge of his White House bid on Wednesday, days before release of a closely-watched Treasury Department report on the currency practices of major U.S. trading partners. “They’re not currency manipulators,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal in an interview. The currency decision is one among many instances of Trump reversing course since taking office a little less than three months ago. Within the space of a few hours on Wednesday, Trump changed previously critical stances on the U.S. Export-Import Bank, the value of NATO, interest rates, and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Likewise, his promises to renegotiate ... Lire
  • euobs223 Schulz opposes ‘2 percent’ Nato goal - Martin Schulz, the centre-left contender to become Germany’s next chancellor, said he would not pursue policies to achieve an increase of defence spending as agreed with Nato allies. Schulz said the long-term goal of reaching a defence budget of two percent of gross domestic product (GDP), would mean that Germany would increase military spending by at least €20 billion in the coming years. “That can definitely not be the goal of a government led by me,” said Schulz at a press conference on Monday (10 April). In 2014, Nato allies agreed in Wales that, by 2024, each member of the transatlantic military alliance would spend two percent of its GDP on defence. The party or parties that end up as the new German government after federal elections on 24 September, ... Lire
  • radio canada « Le Canada est né ici », dit Justin Trudeau à Vimy - Le premier ministre canadien Justin Trudeau a participé dimanche aux commémorations du centenaire de la bataille de la crête de Vimy, en France. M. Trudeau s’est adressé à la foule de près de 25 000 personnes, dont une majorité de Canadiens, venues assister à l’hommage rendu au Mémorial national du Canada à Vimy. « Ils ont défendu et bâti leur pays [et] ont été courageux sans mesure. Rendons-leur hommage », a-t-il déclaré, soulignant le travail et la bravoure des Canadiens et de leurs alliés lors de cette bataille historique. Pour plusieurs, la participation du Canada en tant qu’allié des troupes françaises lors de ces affrontements a représenté le premier pas lui ayant permis de s’affranchir de la Grande-Bretagne et de se faire reconnaître à travers le monde… Lisez la suite sur: Radio Canada, ... Lire
  • dw1 Tug-of-war in the fight against EU tax dodgers - Magnificent paintings hung behind German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble at his press conference in the historic Grandmaster’s Palace in Malta. Prominent among them, images of the “Fall of Man” and “Expulsion from the Garden of Eden,” complete with ornate, gilt Baroque frames. Reporters joked: “This must – appropriately – have something to do with an expulsion from tax havens.” The meeting of 28 EU finance ministers was, after all, called to deal with the issue of curbing international corporations’ excessive tax avoidance. Ironically, it was Malta, which has a reputation for being a tax haven of sorts, and currently holds the EU Council presidency, that called this informal meeting at the opulent palace in its capital, Valletta. Tax rates for businesses are relatively low in Malta. And several EU diplomats ... Lire
  • balkaninsight Thousands Gather in New Anti-Govt Rally in Belgrade - In the latest of a series of protests against the election of Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic as president, Serbian army and police union representatives rallied thousands of protesters in Belgrade. More than 15,000 people rallied in Belgrade on Saturday as the country’s army and police unions protested for better working conditions, higher wages and the establishment of the rule of law in the country, while others demanded that the government step down. It was the latest in a series of daily rallies since Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic won presidential elections on April 2, and army and police union representatives were joined by protesters who accuse the premier of creating a ‘dictatorship’ in the country. Veljko Mijailovic, the head of police union, alleged that security in the country was crumbling ... Lire
  • dw From homeless to entrepreneur in Barcelona - A start-up program set up in Barcelona designed to help homeless people set up their own business based on their skills is proving to be a success. Hagar Jobse reports from Barcelona. “Do you know the expression feeling blue?” Vincent (49) asks 23-year-old architecture student Gonzalo. Vincent and Gonzalo are sitting at a small table at a cafe in the center of Barcelona. For the past few weeks they have been meeting here for Gonzalo’s weekly English class. Dressed in a fancy-looking black suit, Vincent looks more like a businessman than a homeless person. However, Vincent has been living on the streets of Barcelona for the past five months. “Three years ago I moved from London to Spain,” he tells DW. “I have always had work, but last year I suddenly lost my ... Lire
  • euractiv Spain to host southern EU partners for preparatory summit - The leaders of seven Southern European countries will meet in Madrid on Monday (10 April) to scrutinise the consequences of Brexit and discuss their vision for the future of the European Union. EURACTIV Spain reports. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will host a summit with outgoing French President François Hollande and President of Cyprus Nicos Anastasiades, as well as the prime ministers of Greece (Alexis Tsipras), Italy (Paolo Gentiloni), Portugal (Antonio Costa) and Malta (Joseph Muscat). The summit will take place in the El Pardo palace, the official residence for visiting heads of state, near Madrid, and will end with a joint declaration, Spanish government sources told EFE. The seven leaders will exchange views on the next steps the EU should take after Brexit and the signing of the Rome ... Lire
  • 24matin Mélenchon rejoint Fillon, Macron et Le Pen toujours en tête mais en baisse - Jean-Luc Mélenchon, en forte hausse, et François Fillon sont désormais au coude-à-coude, avec 19% d’intentions de vote au 1er tour de l’élection présidentielle, et réduisent l’écart avec Emmanuel Macron et Marine Le Pen, tous les deux en baisse, selon un sondage BVA Salesforce diffusé samedi. Avec 19% d’intentions de vote, le candidat de La France insoumise gagne 4 points en une semaine et rejoint celui de la droite (19%, =), qui ne parvient pas à se relancer. Emmanuel Macron (23%, -2) voit quant à lui son avance s’effriter et se retrouve à égalité avec Marine Le Pen (23%, -1), selon cette enquête pour Orange et La Presse régionale. L’écart entre le duo de tête et ses poursuivants n’est plus que de quatre points à deux semaines du 1er tour. Le ... Lire
  • chinadaily Meeting builds on a thousand reasons to be good partners: China Daily editorial - The first meeting between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump carries special significance because it will ascertain what sort of China-US relations the new administration in Washington wants, and whether the two sides can be on the same page over where to steer the all-important relationship in the years to come. After all, although Beijing has been persistent in pursuing mutually beneficial ties through win-win cooperation, and made that intention very clear, what it has seen and heard from Washington lately have been rather inconsistent, at times contradictory. Most upsetting of all were the confusing signals about what Washington is really after when it comes to its relations with Beijing, especially in matters that the latter holds as its core interests, such as Taiwan and the South ... Lire
  • assad Attaque chimique en Syrie : le doute persiste sur les motivations de Bachar el-Assad - Le régime syrien et son allié russe ont rejeté en bloc jeudi les accusations des pays occidentaux sur l’attaque chimique présumée en Syrie. Accès d’autisme de Bachar el-Assad? Pouvoir devenu complètement irrationnel? Ou bien coup de force des durs au sein de l’appareil militaro-sécuritaire? Le doute persiste sur les motivations qui auraient poussé Damas – la preuve n’en ayant pas encore été formellement apportée – à lancer cette nouvelle attaque chimique, qui met Assad en porte-à-faux vis-à-vis de son allié russe, au moment où les États-Unis ne faisaient plus de son départ «une priorité». «Je suis très surpris par le calendrier de cette attaque», confie un diplomate onusien en contact avec le pouvoir et ses opposants. Après leur évacuation d’Alep-Est fin décembre, les rebelles modérés sont … Lisez la suite ... Lire
  • zuma Tens of thousands march against Jacob Zuma in South Africa - South Africa’s political crisis has intensified as tens of thousands of people joined demonstrations across the country calling for Jacob Zuma to step down, police fired rubber bullets in scattered clashes and a second ratings agency downgraded the country to “junk” status. Thousands marched through the rainy centre of Johannesburg, the commercial capital, on Friday amid a heavy police presence. A large protest also took place in front of parliament in Cape Town. Smaller crowds of a few hundred people protested on suburban street corners and bridges in the main cities and towns. One protester, Lydia Potgieter, 69, said she was there to “support the efforts of all South Africans to be rid of a corrupt system that is eating away everything we have worked for over the last 20 ... Lire
  • bloomberg Is the F-35 a Trillion-Dollar Mistake? - Trump criticized the cost of America’s warplane of the future, but what he’s not saying is that it might be hackable and leave soldiers vulnerable. A pointy-beaked F-35B Lightning II idles noisily on a runway at Naval Air Station Patuxent River in southern Maryland. Suddenly the plane roars to life and sprints a mere 300 feet before abruptly lifting off and soaring into a cloudless, late-winter sky over Chesapeake Bay. A while later it zooms back into view, slows to a hover over the runway like a helicopter, then drops straight down to the concrete, where it lands with a gentle bounce. A U.S. Marine Corps test pilot is manning the controls. If he were Air Force or Navy, his version of the military’s highly anticipated new fighter jet wouldn’t ... Lire
  • bluff Pétrole : gros coup de bluff - Le pétrole dévisse. La production de pétrole de schiste explose aux États-Unis et l’Arabie saoudite rouvre les vannes de sa production et brise le fragile accord Opep ? Méfiance tout de même… Le pétrole se situe juste sous la barre des 50 $/baril. Or, nous avons toujours prévenu qu’il ne fallait pas attendre autre chose de son cours à court-moyen terme que des variations autour du seuil des 50-60 $/baril. La production de pétrole de schiste n’explose pas, seule celle du gisement Permian augmente significativement, et ce depuis avril 2016 (et non récemment). Figure 1 – Évolution du nombre de puits de pétrole aux États-Unis par bassin, fin 2014 – début 2017. Source : CNBC. L’Arabie saoudite augmenterait sa production pour renforcer ses réserves domestiques (ce qui peut être inquiétant d’un point ... Lire
  • echos La Banque centrale européenne commence à réduire ses rachats d’actifs - La BCE va racheter 60 milliards d’euros d’actifs par mois à partir d’avril. Les marchés s’interrogent sur la stratégie de sortie du « QE ». Comment la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) va-t-elle pouvoir ­sortir de sa politique monétaire ultra-accommodante ? La question pourrait paraître prématurée. La BCE a annoncé, en décembre dernier, qu’elle poursuivrait, autant que de besoin, sa stratégie non ­conventionnelle. Au moins jusqu’à la fin de l’année pour son « bazooka monétaire » – son programme d’achat massif d’obligations (ou « quantitative easing », « QE ») – et peut-être bien au-delà pour ses taux directeurs, actuellement à un niveau extrêmement bas. Mais sur les marchés, une certaine fébrilité se fait déjà sentir. D’autant que, à compter d’avril, la BCE réduira l’enveloppe qu’elle ­consacre à ses achats de titres, la faisant passer de ... Lire
  • canard The Most Feared Newspaper in France is Full of Fiction, Scandal, and Puns - Political discourse around the world tends to be driven by sober media stalwarts like the Washington Post, the Times of London, or Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. In France, the star of the show is an eight-page weekly that features excruciating puns for headlines, irreverent cartoons depicting political grandees as dwarves or devils, fake news such as imagined diaries—and real scoops that have laid low countless power brokers over the decades. On Tuesday nights, before Le Canard Enchaîné (“the Chained Duck”) hits the streets, political and media elites across Paris flock to the paper’s offices just a few steps from the Louvre to get an early bead on scandals taking flight. Mixing facts, half-truths, and off-color jokes, Le Canard (as everyone calls it) presents details of behind-the-scenes machinations that readers perceive ... Lire
  • trump militarist Trump est avant tout un milliardaire pro-militariste - L’année dernière nous avons dit dans le GEAB de Mars 2016 que les grands intérêts financiaro-militaires de Washington changent de cheval et nouent une alliance avec Trump qui, somme toute, avant d’être un révolutionnaire est surtout un milliardaire pro-militariste à fort potentiel de convergence avec leurs propres intérêts donc, entraînant alors les médias dans un projet de banalisation du personnage de Trump et exploitant pour parvenir à leurs fins la complexité du système électoral américain. Cette analyse désormais validée nous prouve que Trump ne fait en effet que ce que l’establishment veut bien qu’il fasse. La stratégie de long terme de Trump ne peut se comprendre qu’en revenant à son objectif nationaliste résumé par le slogan « America First » (« l’Amérique d’abord »), martelé trois fois lors du discours d’investiture du 20 janvier 2017. Cette volonté ... Lire
  • postbrexit Post-Brexit, les manigances européennes de dépeçage de la City - Les toutes petites places financières de la zone euro se frottent les mains depuis que les Britanniques ont choisi de sortir de l’UE, se positionnant pour récupérer des parts de marché significatives de l’activité de la City. Une récente étude du think-tank bruxellois Bruegel propose deux scénarios des gains possibles pour une série de places financières, selon que l’UE27 parvienne à intégrer un réseau de places financières européennes ou qu’on assiste à une fragmentation du marché financier européen. Les places financières identifiées comme susceptibles de récupérer de l’activité financière sont essentiellement Francfort, Paris, Dublin et Amsterdam. Sur les 30 % du marché européen que doivent techniquement récupérer les places continentales : . dans une hypothèse de fragmentation, Francfort pourrait se partager 45 % avec Paris (20 %), Dublin (15 %), Amsterdam (10 %) et les autres ... Lire
  • guardian06 Is the world’s highest court fit for purpose? - Walking barefoot, Dominic Ongwen took a westerly course across the tropical savanna in the Central African Republic where it meets the border of Sudan. The Ugandan rebel leader had been on the run for days from Joseph Kony, the notoriously elusive chief of Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). After 30 years as a rebel, from child soldier to commander, Ongwen had fallen out of favour with Kony and had three options: face likely execution, escape, or die trying. Ongwen met a group of cattle herders, who led him to a group of former rebels. A succession of phone calls eventually brought news of his defection to US and Ugandan soldiers in Obo, 500km south, who had been hunting him for six years. US special forces flew Ongwen to their base by ... Lire
  • bloomb U.K. Financiers Battle Government Over Taxes as Brexit Looms - There are signs Britain is getting tougher on financiers just as it needs to attract them. Tax officials are pursuing probes into the residency status of HSBC Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Stuart Gulliver and Chi-X Global Inc. Chairman-Emeritus Anthony Mackay, as the government clamps down on people — oftentimes bankers — who work in the U.K. but are domiciled elsewhere. “HMRC has come under political pressure to take abuse of the non-dom rules more seriously, and there are signs that it is,” said Jolyon Maugham, a tax lawyer and anti-Brexit campaigner, referring to Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs. Lawmakers “are doing what the Conservatives tend to do, slowly turning up the temperature and hoping that doing it that way the lobsters won’t all jump out of the pot at ... Lire
  • Forex today: big turnaround post hawkish FOMC minutes, but why? - The FX space was lively today with key events taking place in the US session, dominated by the FOMC minutes. Markets were looking out for commentary around the Fed’s balance sheet and their intended action for this year. Federal Reserve officials agreed at their March policy meeting that they would likely begin shrinking a $4.5 trillion portfolio of Treasury and mortgage securities later this year. However, there was very little detail of how this would be carried out or how quickly they aim to reduce their holdings. While the minutes were hawkish, the market was disappointed with the outcome and the dollar eventually sold off along with yields and stocks. “One explanation for the reaction to the minutes is that tapering is deemed negative for risk sentiment, hence the lower ... Lire
  • huff Donald Trump est prêt à tout pour confirmer Neil Gorsuch à la Cour suprême, même à faire dégainer “l’option nucléaire” - C’est le grand jour pour le nouveau juge qui doit siéger à la Cour suprême. Choisi par Donald Trump dix jours après son investiture pour occuper la 9e place -vacante- au sein de la plus haute institution judiciaire du pays, le juge conservateur Neil Gorsuch fait l’objet d’un premier vote du Sénat ce jeudi 6 avril dans le but de valider sa nomination. Un vote de confirmation final aura ensuite lieu vendredi. En théorie, 60 voix sur 100 seront requises pour que tout se passe sans encombre mais la majorité républicaine est dans le pétrin: seule, elle ne peut atteindre ce seuil car 52 républicains et 48 démocrates peuplent actuellement le Sénat. Habituellement, certains membres l’opposition mettraient de côté la politique et ne regarderaient que le CV du candidat avant ... Lire
  • euro L’euro survivra-t-il à l’année 2017 ? - Ceci est un extrait du bulletin GEAB No 109 / Nov. 2016 Nous avions longuement argumenté dans les précédents numéros du bulletin GEAB qu’aucune des deux issues des élections – Clinton ou Trump – ne serait une bonne chose pour les États-Unis. Le verdict est tombé, ce sera donc Trump et, parmi toutes les incertitudes qui demeurent, il nous faut maintenant comprendre les défis que cela représente pour le reste du monde, notamment pour la zone euro. En un sens, les opportunités pour une plus grande indépendance européenne sont à saisir, mais pourront-elles l’être ? Le dollar : hausse ou baisse ? Le paradoxe des taux d’intérêt L’euro n’a pas réussi à jouer son rôle de monnaie internationale de référence et n’a au contraire pu servir que de béquille au dollar. Il faut ... Lire
  • bloom Xi’s Nordic Stopover on His Way to U.S. Reveals a Global Trade Shift - Before his first meeting with Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping will stop over in Helsinki. More than just logistics, the Finnish trip reflects a fundamental shift in commercial and diplomatic ties. Xi is being greeted with open arms in the euro area’s northernmost territory. Finland’s prosperity, like that of much of the Nordics, depends on a smooth functioning of global trade, with few regions being more hostile to the idea of protectionism. For the Chinese, “the signal is that the U.S. is not the only diplomatic focus for China; Europe is also very significant,” said Feng Zhongping, a vice president at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations who focuses on Chinese-European ties. As Trump continues to promote “America First” and warns via Twitter of a “difficult” meeting ahead ... Lire
  • bbc Allies abandon South Africa President Jacob Zuma - South Africa’s powerful trades union federation Cosatu has called for President Jacob Zuma to step down. Its Secretary General Bheki Ntshalintshali said he was no longer the “right person” to lead the country. Anti-apartheid struggle veterans have also called on the African National Congress (ANC) to recall the president. Mr Zuma has been under growing pressure following a major cabinet reshuffle which included the sacking of respected Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. That led to South Africa’s credit rating being cut to junk status putting more pressure on a troubled economy. The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), a key part of the governing alliance, says it has 1.8 million members. It forms part of what is called the Tripartite Alliance along with the the African National Congress (ANC) and ... Lire
  • gamechanger The Florida summit could be a ‘game-changer’ for US and China - United States President Donald Trump has done a fine job lowering expectations for his April 6 to 7 summit with China’s President Xi Jinping, tweeting that the meeting “with China will be a very difficult one in that we can no longer have massive trade deficits and job losses”. Investors might wish to take that downbeat assessment with a large pinch of salt. In November Xi said he would work with the newly-elected Trump, just as he had with former President Barack Obama, “to uphold the principles of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation,” sentiments echoed almost verbatim by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Beijing on March 19. The bottom line must surely be that the world’s two largest national economies have a vested interest in finding ... Lire
  • cars Shares of US auto companies fall as car sales decline - Shares of the Big Three American car companies fell Monday after the automakers’ March sales reports showed declining passenger car sales. Shares of Ford finished the day over 1 percent lower after the company reported a year-over-year sales decline of 7.2 percent. Despite market trends shifting toward SUVs, Ford crossover deliveries fell 2 percent for March. Car sales, in the face of steep market headwinds, took a 24.2 percent dive. Ford, though, got a boost by 10 percent growth in the F-Series line of pickups, one of its most profitable products. “Our high-series Super Duty trucks and all-new F-150 Raptor drove double-digit F-Series sales gains in March, along with the strongest year-over-year increase in transaction prices of any truck manufacturer in the industry,” Mark LaNeve, Ford vice president, U.S. marketing, ... Lire