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GEAB 195

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 May 2025

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Central theme: as stated last month, the trade tensions created by Donald Trump were indeed negotiating levers. In this context, the UK, China, soon the EU…, are redefining their trade frameworks with the US, customs barriers are being lowered, globalization is being reorganized and financial markets are racing ahead.

Gold: The bubble bursts

The easing of trade tensions, the lull on the Indo-Pakistan front and the prospects of a resolution to the crisis in Ukraine are bringing gold prices closer to a softer reality. There are no major surprises in gold. If, as we’ve been mentioning since January, 2025 is a year of resolution of age-old conflicts, now’s the time to sell a little. It’s still very high and is more likely to fall than rise in the coming months. Above all, don’t sell everything – the crisis may still hold surprises in store.

Oil: The markets take off

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Contents

EDITORIAL The global systemic transition that we have been relentlessly studying for 19 years has taught us that major crises force us to revisit all of history: Bretons Woods, the [...]

ANTICIPATION America takes control of the Western Roman Empire. And that's good news! The United States, no longer defined solely by its WASP identity, stands as the Vatican's largest financial [...]

VISION The Terra Cognita 2089 section is designed to open up a wider time frame for our anticipations. Based on a critical analysis of the long-term strategic documents (Visions) produced [...]

VIEW An article in the GEAB of March, in the form of a vision rather than an anticipation, suggested a sustainable way out of the current Western crisis by transforming [...]

SIGNS While the digital age seems to promise a more integrated, centralized world, we are witnessing a reverse dynamic: a return to feudal logic. Governors, technology barons, federated states and [...]

TREND In a world where capital, goods and people circulate easily, a new axis of competition is emerging between the powers of the multipolar world: that of capturing populations with [...]

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