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‘Europe insists on financing the present where the Americans and Chinese are financing the future’

Interview with Eric Leandri, CEO of Qwant CEO and co-founder of the French search engine Qwant[1], Éric Leandri shares with GEAB readers his conviction that the US-China trade war offers Europe a window of opportunity to be exploited by focusing on the unique features of the European model. In the trade war between the United […]

2010-2030: The disappearance of the European banking system as we knew it

Reports are currently proliferating concerning the health of the European banking sector ten years after its great crisis.[1] However, on the one hand, the European banks only managed to get out of it with public funds;[2] on the other, some behemoths are still seen as ticking time bombs[3] (Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank,[4] Monte Paschi[5]…). Finally, the […]

Faces of the future – Manfred Weber: Bringing Parliament and the Commission into line

The new face of tomorrow’s Europe matches the faces of tomorrow’s Europeans. Among the latter is one we wish to present to you: Manfred Weber, the very petulant 46-year-old German MEP of the “small” Bavarian Christian party CSU, who could very well be Juncker’s successor at the head of the European Commission soon. Why are […]

Calendar of future events (May-September 2019): 28 dates that will change the world… or not

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This calendar of future events, produced every four months, is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the […]

The new face of post-election Europe

There’s no need to wait for the results of the election to anticipate some of the major features of the new Europe that will be established after June 2019. Certainly, on the surface, there will be no revolution: The sovereignist right-wing parties (ENF[1]+Brexit[2]+AEPN[3]+CRE) won’t accumulate more than 20 or 25% maximum of parliamentary seats (around […]

Migration flows: The challenges of depletion

It may seem daring to say that major migratory invasions are not going to be part of the future of Europe at a time when the hard-won ‘Libyan lock’ following the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 is about to be broken again. However, we have arguments showing that, in the short to medium term, a […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 134 (April edition synopsis)

Uncovering false evidence is one of the missions of the GEAB team. At a time when the European Elections campaign is slowly starting to take off, bringing the migration issue in the forefront, it seems appropriate to take a more detached look at this subject. No, migration flows from Africa to Europe are not expected […]

Why blockchain and cryptocurrency might cause problems?

Four major issues have put the central banks and tax administrations on alert: The decentralised character of blockchains: Most blockchains work thanks to a global network of stakeholders, including developers, miners, network nodes (with a copy of the registry) and blockchain users. In this context, it is difficult to address an individual entity to require […]

Towards a ‘Francophone Economic Sphere’ (FES)

Emmanuel Macron took power in order to serve a European agenda through the reintegration of France (marginalised since 2003[1] but without which there is no Europe) into the heart of the Concert of European Nations. The idea was that by showing goodwill through the making of reforms in conformity with the EU, France and its […]

European elections / Europe 2040: ‘And now for something completely different’

(A handbook for the actors of the European campaign) There is a lot about epilogues in this issue! In the case of the EU (a phase in the construction of Europe which came into being on 7 February 1992 in Maastricht), the upcoming elections will seal the vision it has held for 27 years. And […]

Emmanuel Macron, the compatible candidate  (excerpt – GEAB 115)

The French presidential campaign of 2017 saw a truly historic moment with the televised debate between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. The debate revealed two main things: the emptiness of the one’s manifesto on one side and the unexpected density of the character (and programme) of the other on the other side. Our team […]

Nuclear-gas/ France-Germany: Two behemoths to form an Energy Union in Europe

In 2014, in the context of the partly energy-motivated Ukrainian crisis, European citizens became aware that 63 years after the signing of the ECSC Treaty (which, forming the basis of a coal and steel union, was the starting point for the European project) there was no Energy Union in Europe. The price of Russian gas, […]

Calendar of future events (February-May 2019): 26 dates that will change the world… or not

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’26 events that […]

Global systemic crisis: A leap of faith

The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations…) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it turn out to be a bad counsellor? That is the whole question. Certainly, we do need to change the international system (financial, monetary, democratic, of […]

Eurozone: The banking union as a solution

From a budgetary point of view, this compromise can only lead to a kind of status quo. The institutional architecture will stay close to that drafted by the 2011-2013 reforms that were based on unilateral recoveries in competitiveness. All transfers between states will be conditioned and will do nothing to help rebalance the eurozone. They will […]

Food autonomy threatened by Chinese investments and needs

A symptom of the complete opening up of the market by the Commission that poses a threat to European food security is the acquisition of agricultural land by foreign investors, particularly Chinese investors. Indeed, the investments of the Middle Kingdom in foreign agricultural lands have jumped up in recent years. They totalled at least $94 […]

The GEAB team’s Future Events Calendar

Political anticipation does not work using crystal balls. “Future data” represents the raw material for its analyses: elections, summits, and various meetings are elements which allow us to cast light on a future of facts. Since June 2016, the GEAB team has decided to share with its readers the raw data which underpins our anticipations. […]

“Thanks” to China, EU will adopt the pro-trade protectionist model (what the GEAB said in March 2018)

As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium.  In addition to the duty of protecting this industry and the jobs connected with it, he was motivated by the strategic nature of this sector which is intrinsically linked to the army. Economy, employment, […]