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An evaluation of our anticipations for 2018 (drawn from GEAB No 121 of January 2018): 68% successful

17 Up et 16 Down Each year in December, we release an evaluation of our anticipations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 22.5 out of 33 key tendencies, meaning a 68% success, 7 points less than last year (75%). Here is our success rate graphic: The view we […]

A changing paradigm: Glimpses of what is coming after the global “nationalist” wave (part two)

Future developments: What will be the new normal? President Trump emerged as a champion of those who perceived that they were left behind in the inequality race and who felt others were ‘flooding’ into ‘their’ country to take their jobs, as traditional politicians filled their own pockets, whilst clinging to economic theories of growth and […]

September 2017 – Euro crisis: The ECB loses its independence

The post-Brexit Europe does not need the extreme right-wings, it is already lining up with the national-European model proposed by the British. The antagonism between European and national levels, which has dramatically increased within the crisis, due to a lack of democratic anchoring at the European level, has led in just 6 months to a […]

Germany: An Arrhythmia at the Heart of Europe

We anticipate that this European state will face several economic, cultural and political difficulties this year and next. First, the rise of the euro will hurt German exports; the stabilisation of oil prices prohibits the oxygen balloon effect of prices declines of 2015; failure of the migrant strategy puts Germany face to face with all […]

Multipolar World 2022: India’s Power Strategy via Washington

In view of China’s demographic being overtaken by India by 2022, India will use the structuring rivalry of the new world order emerging between the United States and China to advance its own interests, by operating a tactical rapprochement with Washington. This new partnership will be part of a struggle against Chinese trade surpluses and […]

The Yellow Vests / Angry nations: What the GEAB announced in June 2016

The nations are angry, as anticipated in the GEAB since late 2011, and this is a logical consequence of a crisis without historical precedent, a multi-directional crisis of global dimensions to which the levels of national “democratic” power are structurally unable to respond while governance structures, which are most likely to put solutions into place, […]

United Kingdom: Towards a May-xit

“Since there is no future, the wanderings of the past are back in Europe”. On this topic, our team finds interesting to identify some sort of an echo of the Continental Blockade[1] within the Brexit affair. There will be of course no strict parallel, but this parallel might show that Brexit is at least as […]

Clash in the Sea of Azov  : What the GEAB stated five months ago (GEAB N°126 – June 2018)

Ukraine continues to create a significant barrier between Europe and Russia, forcing EU member states to abandon the dynamics of community to preserve interests intrinsically linked to the fluidity of their relations with Russia. Individually, these countries (Italy, Austria, Hungary, Greece, Germany, France, etc.), in a more or less ostentatious way, are ignoring the Ukrainian […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Mar 2018)

– ICOs: Be agile, but well informed – NEOM: The key to a new Middle East citizenship? – Oil: Beware of dollar fluctuations – European arms industry: All the way, with military QE ahead ICOs: Be agile, but well informed As we have seen in this issue of the GEAB, ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) allow […]

2018 Multipolar globalisation: EU adopts the pro-trade protectionist model

As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium.  In addition to the duty of protecting this industry and the jobs connected with it, he was motivated by the strategic nature of this sector which is intrinsically linked to the army. Economy, employment, […]

Europe 2018: The EU unplugged

We have been anticipating for many months a political takeover by the national level all over the world. This takeover has emerged as a necessity linked to the structural incapacity of supranational levels of governance (patiently put in place during the second half of the twentieth century) to trigger the reforms imposed by the huge […]

Calendar of future events (May 2018)

The future is filled with the factual data on which we base the anticipations that inform our decisions. That’s why, on a quarterly basis, our team shares with the GEAB readers the ‘raw’ data of this work in the form of an annotated calendar of upcoming events for the next three or four months. It […]

Euro-Russian relations: Relaxation in sight

The revival of European dynamics, whatever they might be, depends largely on the restoration of relations with Russia. This has divided the European Union since 2014 and demonstrated how much this edifice, in its initial form, is no longer capable to serve the most obvious interests of our continent, starting with maintaining good relations with […]

Investments, trends and recommendations

– Paris: watch out! – Emerging countries: Taking the plunge in Yuan waters – Raw materials: Oops! – New finance: yours to experiment with Paris: watch out! Between ‘Grand Paris’, world capital of luxury, European financial hub and the Olympic city in 2024, Paris is about to rise through the ranks. The sleeping beauty of […]

The challenge of the institutionalisation of cryptocurrencies

While the wave of buzz and hype around cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies, is running out of steam among people in general,[1] the movement that has emerged remains robust. The versatility of the technology, its deployment in a digital context which can quickly reach millions of people, its potentially anonymous character and the place it could […]

2018, between economic upturn and restored prosperity

News on the economic front is less severe. The recovery is expected to continue in 2018, partly on the basis of these various returns to slight forms of protectionism; a protectionism which, for now, is structured on the basis of large national and supranational entities, and stays open. It is a realignment rather than a […]

Member States ready to dismantle the EU

For several years, in the fight between the national and the European levels of governance, it was asserted that the European level was a bulwark against nationalist ‘populisms’, a bastion of values like peace, openness, tolerance and human progress against the bestiality and war inherent in the national model. However, the reality has started to […]

Brexit : Back to the Commonwealth alongside a deep trade partnership with the EU

A trade in goods without obstacles An abandonment of this regulation and an emancipation of the Brussels’ tutelage still remain largely probable, because although a trade partnership following Brexit goes without saying, it is far from guaranteed that it will cover financial services as well. The speech on 2nd March has definitely clarified a point […]