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Panorama 2020: 32 key trends

As we do every year, GEAB by LEAP is presenting a landscape of the key trends for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this LEAP contribution, which, of course, reflects many of the analyses of our researchers over the last few months, we aim to provide a better understanding of the main issues […]

Overview 2020: The “phoney year”

As an introduction to our traditional January “key trends”, here are the main guiding lines that we have identified for this “phoney year [1]”. This first year of the new decade promises us a journey through dangerous waters. And the financial crisis announced two years ago by a desperate world of finance could be the […]

Coming soon, the confidential GEAB 141 (January edition)

So January of the famous year 2020 has come! And with it comes our global panorama of trends and expectations. The task of presenting this is, perhaps, even harder than usual, at the dawn of a year capable of delivering the worst as well as the best, or even the worst in anticipation of the best […]

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2019 (drawn from GEAB No 131 of January 2019): 70.5% successful (27.5/39)

As we do every December, we have completed an evaluation of the trend anticipations we published last January. This time, we have ended up with a final score of 27.5 over 39 key trends, or a 70.5% success rate, 2.5 points higher than last year (68%). We organised the “up & down” trends for 2019 […]

GEAB GPS: Annual update of the map

This in-depth assessment of our anticipations for the year will be used to update our map of major global transformational trends. We present here a synthesis of a year of anticipations tested against reality and placed in a more classical temporal continuum (past and present). This meticulous work is specially intended to enable everyone to […]

Editorial: A special GEAB issue on evaluation as a special year of innovation approaches

The coming year is not just any year, but 2020! LEAP is one of the offshoots of Franck Biancheri’s Reinventing Europe project inaugurated in Athens in 1998,[1] which gave birth shortly afterwards to the think-tank Europe2020, the immediate predecessor of the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP). For 21 years, 2020 has been the time […]

The anger of the people: “It’s politics, Stupid!”

Popular protests are growing and multiplying: from Arab spring, Occupy Wall Street, Indignados, Maidan, populist votes, to the yellow vests, Iraq, Algeria, demonstrations against global warming, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Venezuela, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia… The streets are on fire, the markets are faltering and the only explanations being given are poverty, increasing disparity, taxes – “the […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 139 (November issue). Synopsis

Social unrest is beginning to be perceived by the financial markets and economy as a possible trigger for the famous 2020 crisis: Demonstrations, increased public debt, budgetary crises, the redirection of debt from private to public, austerity, loss of confidence of economic and financial players, bankruptcies etc… In a context of economic slowdown, rising discontent […]

The decline of populism in Europe

This phenomenon of the limits being tested and rejected as ineffective is also playing a role in the difficulties encountered by Matteo Salvini and Boris Johnson in Europe, both of whom have to face a “united front” of big parties joining together to block a third big party considered to be endangering the country by […]

Focus on: Challenges for the chemical industry in Europe

The chemical industry in Europe is facing many challenges resulting from changes in its competitive position, global and local environment issues, as well as regulatory and technological innovation. A priori, Europe is not well positioned right now; but this could be turned into an advantage, if there is an entrepreneurial will – and the preparedness […]

2020: The transatlantic trap of the new Greece

Since July 8, the ‘Tsipras parenthesis’ that did so much to enrage the European Union, the United States and so many other interests, was closed. The wind of hope and renewal that blew over the country in 2015, when a man who didn’t come from one of the great dynasties (Samaras, Mitsotákis, Papandreou, Karamanlis) succeeded […]

GlobalEurope Future Agenda (October-February): 56 dates that will change the world (or not)

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’56 events that […]

October 31, 2019: The great “coup de Trafalgar” of the Anglo-Saxons

As an overview and introduction to our GlobalEurope Future Agenda in 56 dates, we anticipate a year’s end full of surprises and reversals – ‘surprises’ in terms of mainstream media thinking, but in line with many of our past analyses. Brexit: Protectionist England or Protectionist Europe? At the heart of these trend reversals, there is […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 138 (October). Synopsis

Last month, we forecast a “change of direction” in US foreign policy. With the Trump-Erdogan agreement allowing Turkey to launch a military offensive in northern Syria at the same time as a partial withdrawal of US troops from the region, we did not have long to wait. But there is no room for complacency. The […]

Excerpts of our July anticipations on European tourism… (in the context of the failure of Thomas Cook)

Over the next decade, the impact of a downturn, combined with the effects of increased competition, saturation and fatigue, and environmental considerations, all this in the context of a vast questioning of meaning, will lead to a complete repositioning of the European tourism sector. Reality has begun to remind Europe of the unsustainable nature of […]

2020: IMF, a collateral victim of the US-China trade war

It’s not only Hong Kong that finds itself in the middle of the crossfire of the US-China trade war. The IMF may also be on the list of collateral victims of the great tectonic plate movement currently at work. In recent years, Beijing has increased its voting weight and added the Yuan to the basket […]

Bolton – World – US 2020: An American Perestroika

In line with our anticipations in 2006 regarding the fall of the second half of the bipolar system centred around Russia and the United States, the recent dismissal of Trump’s security adviser, the neo-conservative John Bolton, is in our view a historic event of the same symbolic significance as Gorbachev’s launch of perestroika[1]. By openly […]

Future of the European Tourism : The ‘Lascaux Cave’ Syndrome

The Lascaux cave is a prehistoric site discovered in the Dordogne in 1940. Soon after, it was opened as a tourist attraction, which ended up endangering the magnificent rock paintings. So much so that in 1963 it was closed to the public[1]… or, rather, reserved for specialists. A replica of the cave and its paintings, […]