Our team is proud to present its self-evaluaiton of the 2024 trends published in January. This year we have recorded a 74.19% success rate. Several events were accurately anticipated from the start of the year: the defection of at least one of the two US presidential candidates, the dissolution of the government in France and […]
As economic and political instability intensifies, our team takes a closer look at the forecasts of the major Western financial institutions. Between optimism and underestimated risks, these reports are as full of lessons as they are surprisingly consistent. Given the growing instability in international economic and political affairs, our team has decided to redouble its […]
The answer that immediately comes to mind is: “China, of course”! But that’s too easy for the GEAB, so we won’t be going down that route in this article. Instead of presenting our hypothesis right away, as we typically do, we prefer to keep you in suspense and take you on a journey. So, what’s […]
Changes in the attractiveness of different regions and in their attitudes to accepting foreign populations will naturally lead to a reorganisation of migratory flows. In this major rebalancing, the EU appears to be the least well placed, while the Gulf States and, to a lesser extent, Asia will become increasingly important. Finally, the regionalisation of […]
As the European Union struggles to adapt to the realities of a multipolar world, a new intergovernmental structure is emerging, the European Political Community (EPC). More agile and flexible, it could redefine the framework of European cooperation and meet tomorrow’s economic, geopolitical and security challenges. The European Union is facing a double failure: it can […]
The year 2025 could mark a turning point with the signing of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. This event, driven by the BRICS+ and new international alliances, could rebalance global dynamics and offer a way out of the crisis for the economically exhausted European Union. One political element will open a way out […]
The European Union is facing a series of economic and political crises that threaten to shatter its model. Between the rise of nationalism, economic weakness and the failure of monetary policy, the EU seems to be out of breath. Could this be the very end of the United Europe? Isn’t it time to acknowledge that […]
The decline of the United States’ power in recent years has been widely acknowledged. Our team, in this bulletin, was among the first to extensively discuss the emergence of a multipolar world and the gradual erosion of American hegemony over the rest of the world. This trend was so obvious that even Americans themselves were […]
More than 30,000 civilians have been killed in the ongoing Israeli attack on Gaza[1], yet every ceasefire resolution at the UN Security Council continues to be blocked by US veto, while the General Assembly condemns the Israeli bombardment of Gaza by an unprecedented majority. The history of the UN Security Council itself demonstrates the dysfunctionality […]
Impossible relaunch of the European defence industry, political and social confrontations, strategic disagreements, diplomatic differences… “Until now, Europe has been built out of crises”. This has been a historically verifiable motto. The conflict in Ukraine, however, will be the crisis that proves this motto wrong, and even brings the edifice crashing down on itself. The […]
Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]
Forests are far more than just verdant scenery. They are essential ecosystems, hubs of biodiversity, with a pivotal role in upholding ecological equilibrium and sustaining human existence. Among their myriad advantages, three significant roles are prominent: the stabilisation of soil, the preservation of drinking water and, maybe the most important one, forests are the lungs […]
The transition from the world ‘before’ to the world ‘after’ that we have so often analysed and commented on in our publications continues. Today, this transition is taking on a violent aspect. The Russian-Ukrainian war marks a return to armed conflict on the European continent. The absence of a speedy resolution underscores the challenges in […]
The political landscape of the European Union is undergoing a paradoxical reconfiguration: ideas from the right, and even more so from the far right, are on the rise; yet the traditional conservative right is living out its final hours, at least as an autonomous political force. This is due to the very strong polarisation of […]
Mexico, 2025/2026, a + in the BRICS+ world President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, AMLO, has one year left to make his country a permanent member of the group of sovereign and equal states[1] and to consolidate all the changes he has brought about in the last five years. In the “Reader’s eye on the future” […]
Climate change has been shifting our relationship with water, bringing power and politics into human rights issues of access and management, because the powerless is particularly hit by this. Besides the question of access to safe water for domestic use, it is also a matter of sovereignty over the landscape.[1] Water also serves many purposes […]
Ukrainian refugees now live in Europe under a special status called temporary protection, modelled after a similar status created by the US at the end of the Cold War. While this status offers them privileged benefits, it also exacerbates the difficulties Europe faces, which we illustrate with a deep dive into the German situation. This […]
US/Europe/World – Comparative Stabilities: America’s Advantage In line with our article on the geopolitics of foreign direct investments (FDI), we must say that by using all its tools of power, the United States is currently succeeding in reversing the process of tilting the transatlantic relationship in favour of the EU, something we spotted in 2019 […]