Applying anticipation to world political and economic news

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Global systemic crisis: A leap of faith

The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations...) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it turn out to be a bad counsellor? That is the whole question. Certainly, we do need to change the international system (financial, monetary, democratic, of governance...). Yet, in this process of transformation, there comes a tipping point where the world can only ‘close its eyes’ and jump. But in this leap from one system to another, it is trust that will determine the success of any action. If there is the slightest doubt, we will miss the step. If we are not mistaken, the world began this flight from one system to another three years ago, when the British asked to leave the EU and the Americans elected Donald Trump. As for the moment of take-off, we can be even more specific than that: the summer of 2018 and the deep questioning of WTO principles by Donald Trump was undoubtedly the final kick across the void. The other side will be reached somewhere between 2019 and 2020, depending on the wind. Inevitably, in this period of fundamental questioning of the [...]

In summary

Calendar of future events (February-May 2019): 26 dates that will change the world… or not

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one [...]

States-gold-cryptos: the three pillars of the next international currency

Of course, there is this temptation of reverting to national or regional levels. However, there is also the Internet that connects the world lastingly. As a matter of fact globalized [...]

Nuclear-gas/ France-Germany: Two behemoths to form an Energy Union in Europe

In 2014, in the context of the partly energy-motivated Ukrainian crisis, European citizens became aware that 63 years after the signing of the ECSC Treaty (which, forming the basis of [...]

International Finance: Decentralised QE

Have you noticed that all the efforts to regulate debt, derivatives, banks etc., made following the subprime crisis and meeting with varying degrees of success over the last ten years, [...]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Feb 2019)

A reminder that our recommendations are not for speculative purposes, therefore short-term, that they don’t aim to win more, but rather to lose less (even nothing) because in the case [...]

Coming soon, the February edition of the GEAB (synopsis)

The gradual disappearance of the previous world order’s straitjackets of stability (international organisations, treaties, alliances, various regulations...) is becoming alarming. Will this alarm act as a spur or will it [...]

The Agricultural crisis and rural exodus: A major challenge for Indian society

The crisis of the agricultural sector One sector experiencing a serious crisis, to which demonetisation was unable to respond, is agriculture. More than half of India’s population lives in rural [...]

Eurozone: The banking union as a solution

From a budgetary point of view, this compromise can only lead to a kind of status quo. The institutional architecture will stay close to that drafted by the 2011-2013 reforms that [...]

Food autonomy threatened by Chinese investments and needs

A symptom of the complete opening up of the market by the Commission that poses a threat to European food security is the acquisition of agricultural land by foreign investors, [...]

Letters from readers

For more than 15 years, the GEAB team has been lighting the (my) way and is one of the clear, factual, rigorous and systemic (to use ‘that word’)  information tools [...]

“Thanks” to China, EU will adopt the pro-trade protectionist model (what the GEAB said in March 2018)

As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium.  In addition to the duty of protecting this industry [...]

Cryptocurrencies: From national regulations to international coordination

Cryptocurrencies lie at the centre of many of the questions being asked by individuals, companies and market authorities, and therefore by nation states. Their position within the economic environment is [...]

The Yellow Vests / Angry nations: What the GEAB announced in June 2016

The nations are angry, as anticipated in the GEAB since late 2011, and this is a logical consequence of a crisis without historical precedent, a multi-directional crisis of global dimensions [...]

The website geab.eu has just changed!

Our website has been upgraded. New subscription packages, new features, new analyses... Check the brand new GEAB.EU website now! . Annual GEAB subscriptions available for only 160 euro/year; . Monthly GEAB subscriptions now [...]

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An anticipation exercise* conducted on a monthly basis by the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP).
* 75% success rate (on average, according to the annual evaluation)

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