Your intelligence for the future

The bulletin
GEAB 179 / November 2023
Free excerpt

Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. In defining it, he points out that "the new does not grow out of the old, but coexists with the old, competes with it to the point of damaging it". If the economists are interested in the cycles of innovation in a capitalist system, this theory also applies to the global order of international relations. For over fifteen years, our publication has focused on the transition from the world before to the world after. This historical period must be viewed in terms of the theory of creative destruction: The characteristics of the world before (the result of the Cold War, which the US emerged victorious from) are being destroyed, while the characteristics of the world after (the creation of a multipolar order, in which the Western nations will find themselves on an equal footing with China, India, the BRICS+ and the Middle East, and in [...]



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An anticipation exercise* conducted on a monthly basis by the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP).
* 75% success rate (on average, according to the annual evaluation)

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