Applying anticipation to world political and economic news

Your intelligence for the future

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Bolton – World – US 2020: An American Perestroika

In line with our anticipations in 2006 regarding the fall of the second half of the bipolar system centred around Russia and the United States, the recent dismissal of Trump's security adviser, the neo-conservative John Bolton, is in our view a historic event of the same symbolic significance as Gorbachev's launch of perestroika. By openly expelling this neo-conservative warmonger, Trump has marked the end of the impossible American empire. The news is as exciting for the world as was the news in the case of perestroika. However, for the United States, the consequences will be as complicated to manage as they were for Russia back then. We anticipate a reversal of the domino effect already mentioned by us (and described at the end of 2016) and ultimately a return of the political-financial-economic crisis to its starting point – the United States. Thus, we are writing here an article which is very (perhaps a little too) optimistic about the ebbing of global geopolitical tensions and extreme solutions, while ending on a pessimistic note about the economic and political outlook of the United States. America's two far-rights In April 2018, we concluded that Trump had placed Bolton as close to him as [...]

In summary

Future demographics: questioning certainties

In developed nations, there is a clear trend to living longer and having fewer children. Certain countries have countered this trend through (planned or unplanned) immigration, but this approach also [...]

2020: IMF, a collateral victim of the US-China trade war

It's not only Hong Kong that finds itself in the middle of the crossfire of the US-China trade war. The IMF may also be on the list of collateral victims [...]

Hong Kong 2025: A suburb of Shenzhen

Between a USD-pegged currency (the HKD) and the reaffirmation of its Chinese nature after its handover in 1997, Hong Kong lies right at the heart of the famous trade war [...]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Sept 2019)

Finance – First openings in the Chinese market Our investment recommendations on the Chinese financial market are not easy to follow due to lack of accessibility. However, gradually the Chinese [...]

The challenge of the institutionalisation of cryptocurrencies

While the wave of buzz and hype around cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies, is running out of steam among people in general, the movement that has emerged remains robust. The versatility [...]

The future of European private banks

In ten years’ time, if the digital currencies of central banks become widespread, the role of monetary issuance which began to escape from them nearly fifty years ago should come [...]

African Union: The end of the CFA franc (from the GEAB 110 / Dec 2016)

Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population, and also one of the poorest is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB special file: European tourism in crisis (synopsis)

European Tourism 2020-2030: The improbable alliance between tourism and protectionism Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth [...]

The virtualisation of the European financial system: towards a new stage of disintermediation

The IMF and the international financial institutions are preparing reforms of the international monetary system, which must also take into account this double injunction of efficiency (thus of modernity and [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 136 (June). Synopsis

The momentum for change is simply breath-taking, as we shall see in this next issue of the GEAB: the invention of new financing systems, the restructuring of the digital world, [...]

Mukesh Ambani, the Indian Jeff Bezos

Why him? Mukesh Ambani is not an emerging and promising young beginner. On the contrary, the 61-year-old has already made his mark as an Indian business magnate at the head [...]

NATO’s Budget Crisis

Since the 2014 Newport Summit, NATO has been proud to have obtained from member states a reaffirmation of the famous principle of 2% of GDP allocated to military spending. But [...]

Why this could be the right time to get into silver

Investing in silver is not something that all retail investors will immediately consider. The reasons often given for holding back are the high volatility together with some uncertainty as to [...]

YOUR INTELLIGENCE OF THE FUTURE

YOUR INTELLIGENCE OF THE FUTURE

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An anticipation exercise* conducted on a monthly basis by the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP).
* 75% success rate (on average, according to the annual evaluation)

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