Applying anticipation to world political and economic news

Your intelligence for the future

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Migration flows: The challenges of depletion

It may seem daring to say that major migratory invasions are not going to be part of the future of Europe at a time when the hard-won ‘Libyan lock’ following the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 is about to be broken again. However, we have arguments showing that, in the short to medium term, a cluster of trends will ensure a decline in migratory mobility, particularly towards Europe. This trend reversal (or the perception thereof) is important to take into account because it raises another whole range of issues to be discussed by economic and political leaders. Libya 2019: Risk of new migration crisis or opportunity for the radical rights in the European Elections?  Let's start by positing the most obvious short-term anticipation: On the one hand, the war currently breaking out between the two camps (Haftar in the east and al-Sarraj in Tripoli) is all that is needed to provoke a new influx of migrants to Europe: migrants from Africa and the Middle East, currently interned in camps that are likely to be abandoned (between 700,000 and 1 million people), and Libyan migrants fleeing a country at war (6 million inhabitants, including 1 million in Tripoli ). On the [...]

In summary

A theoretical exercise – NATO: What happens if Israel attacks Turkey?

NATO is a 70-year-old baby boomer... just like the Organisation of American States (69), Mao Tse Tong's Communist Republic of China, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Democratic Republic of [...]

Political Anticipation Notes: The rural/urban divide

Rural and urban lifestyles have always been different and, clearly, where you live is just one of many divides that affect our societies.  But this divide is one that has [...]

Modern money: The march towards a cashless society

There has been much talk in recent years concerning the perceived move towards a cashless society – an increasing tendency to remove physical cash from general circulation and replace it [...]

People of the future

Here we present the latest addition to our Bricks of the future section: The Who’s Who? Or People of the future. Just as organisations have a vocation to stabilise at [...]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Apr 2019)

- Smart cities: Fundopolis? - Human-friendliness: Back to basics - Oil: the fly in the ointment - Cryptocurrencies – Cake sharing - Uber – Cheese with holes - Fee-based Internet – [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 134 (April edition synopsis)

Uncovering false evidence is one of the missions of the GEAB team. At a time when the European Elections campaign is slowly starting to take off, bringing the migration issue [...]

Why blockchain and cryptocurrency might cause problems?

Four major issues have put the central banks and tax administrations on alert: The decentralised character of blockchains: Most blockchains work thanks to a global network of stakeholders, including developers, [...]

International Finance: Decentralised QE (throwback to our anticipation)

Have you noticed that all the efforts to regulate debt, derivatives, banks etc., made following the subprime crisis and meeting with varying degrees of success over the last ten years, [...]

Anticipation 2025 : Peak Oil

Everyone agrees that, as announced by the International Energy Agency and OPEC, the next peak oil will be around 2025 (2030 for McKinsey), all sectors of production included, whether conventional [...]

The world after Trump: What undermined the status quo ante?

If we first look at the number of driving forces, there are a large number, and although some are well known and clear, others are more obscure and less well [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 133 (March edition synopsis)

The latent financial crisis, the invention of a new world monetary system, the world being shared between China and the United States, American military withdrawal, European disintegration, civil wars and [...]

The attack on gold as money

For most of recorded history, gold has been the central sign and store of wealth and the more abundant silver has been the coinage of the people. This continued as [...]

Emmanuel Macron, the compatible candidate  (excerpt – GEAB 115)

The French presidential campaign of 2017 saw a truly historic moment with the televised debate between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. The debate revealed two main things: the emptiness [...]

US-China Negotiations: A New Yalta (two excerpts from the February GEAB bulletin)

On February 15 we drew a parallel between the US-Chinese "trade" negotiations and the historic treaties on world-sharing, such as Tordesillas or Yalta, ideas which now seem to interest some [...]

YOUR INTELLIGENCE OF THE FUTURE

YOUR INTELLIGENCE OF THE FUTURE

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An anticipation exercise* conducted on a monthly basis by the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP).
* 75% success rate (on average, according to the annual evaluation)

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