Applying anticipation to world political and economic news
Your intelligence for the future
The above title is provocative in a media world rightly focused on ecological catastrophes, popular discontent, risks of war and the financial crisis of 2020. But our mission is not to repeat what everyone knows – that the chaotic world of the beginning of the 21st century is a dangerous place... After all, hasn't the world always been a dangerous place? Since 2006, the GEAB has been analysing the unfolding of the global crisis (or transition) from a “systemic” perspective, leading it to identify common denominators amongst the myriad of apparently disconnected events affecting this period of history and to identify the phases of a process that is much more coherent than it seems. This rigour of observing things is only possible because we force ourselves to “anticipate” the next steps – an exercise that leads us to constantly check the value of our hypotheses because “the future recalls itself to us”, unlike the past, about which we can say what we want. Therefore, our method involves taking risks. However, far from imposing our views, we bring into our discussion the critical intelligence of each of our readers. With these usual precautions, we will argue the hypothesis that the tipping-point [...]
Popular protests are growing and multiplying: from Arab spring, Occupy Wall Street, Indignados, Maidan, populist votes, to the yellow vests, Iraq, Algeria, demonstrations against global warming, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Venezuela, [...]
We have been anticipating the arrival of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for a year. And it was Christine Lagarde's speeches at the IMF last November, in particular, that encouraged [...]
Aramco's IPO: another game-changer Saudi Aramco is a wonderful illustration of the problem that we see beginning to be solved in 2020 with the establishment of a new monetary and [...]
Social unrest is beginning to be perceived by the financial markets and economy as a possible trigger for the famous 2020 crisis: Demonstrations, increased public debt, budgetary crises, the redirection [...]
Excerpt from the GEAB 138 / 15 Oct. 2019: "The left-wing president, Evo Morales, is running for a fourth term despite the constitutional limit and a referendum against circumventing the [...]
This phenomenon of the limits being tested and rejected as ineffective is also playing a role in the difficulties encountered by Matteo Salvini and Boris Johnson in Europe, both of [...]
Last month, we forecast a "change of direction" in US foreign policy. With the Trump-Erdogan agreement allowing Turkey to launch a military offensive in northern Syria at the same time [...]
The fundamentalist religious movements are being strengthened in a world where change frightens poorly educated populations that are suspicious of modernity. They are also strengthened by the political manoeuvring. This [...]
Over the next decade, the impact of a downturn, combined with the effects of increased competition, saturation and fatigue, and environmental considerations, all this in the context of a vast [...]
While the wave of buzz and hype around cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies, is running out of steam among people in general, the movement that has emerged remains robust. The versatility [...]
In ten years’ time, if the digital currencies of central banks become widespread, the role of monetary issuance which began to escape from them nearly fifty years ago should come [...]
Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population, and also one of the poorest is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above [...]
