Applying anticipation to world political and economic news

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2010-2030: The disappearance of the European banking system as we knew it

Reports are currently proliferating concerning the health of the European banking sector ten years after its great crisis. However, on the one hand, the European banks only managed to get out of it with public funds; on the other, some behemoths are still seen as ticking time bombs (Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Monte Paschi...). Finally, the European banking system is struggling to finance the needs of the continent. The balance sheet of the European banking recovery is mediocre at best: supported at arm's length by public authorities, and certainly cleaned up thanks to the Basel regulations, but at the expense of efficient financing. Are the private banks, invented in Italy at Quattrocento, still the most relevant players to finance the European economy of the 21st century? The organisation of the European financing system: towards an Anglo-Saxon model The transformation process is already underway and the pressure that European banks have been under over the past ten years has been immense and multidirectional. The very high operating costs of the ECB's low, and even negative, interest rates have weighed heavily on the sector, forcing it to reduce costs by all means possible, including reducing staff and branches. Despite this, their margins have [...]

In summary

Strong trend: The increasing resistance to progress

Under the impetuous blows of the global systemic crisis, the automatic pilot system (technocracy), that determined our direction and cruising speed until 2008, is gradually coming to an end. The [...]

The end of the American domination over the digital world

The ongoing trade war between the US and China has recently taken a new turn with the involvement of the digital giants, under obvious pressure from the White House. Alleging [...]

‘Europe insists on financing the present where the Americans and Chinese are financing the future’

Interview with Eric Leandri, CEO of Qwant CEO and co-founder of the French search engine Qwant, Éric Leandri shares with GEAB readers his conviction that the US-China trade war offers [...]

Oil – Surfing an ebbing wave

We are now well into the fifth – and probably last – wave of the oil era. All the conditions needed for us to leave behind our oil dependency are [...]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Jun 2019)

Crypto-currencies: Gold 2.0? With the greatest caution, playing the diversification and flexibility game to reduce possible risks, we advise you to start investing in the cryptos that now have safe-haven [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 136 (June). Synopsis

The momentum for change is simply breath-taking, as we shall see in this next issue of the GEAB: the invention of new financing systems, the restructuring of the digital world, [...]

Mukesh Ambani, the Indian Jeff Bezos

Why him? Mukesh Ambani is not an emerging and promising young beginner. On the contrary, the 61-year-old has already made his mark as an Indian business magnate at the head [...]

NATO’s Budget Crisis

Since the 2014 Newport Summit, NATO has been proud to have obtained from member states a reaffirmation of the famous principle of 2% of GDP allocated to military spending. But [...]

Why this could be the right time to get into silver

Investing in silver is not something that all retail investors will immediately consider. The reasons often given for holding back are the high volatility together with some uncertainty as to [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 135 ! Synopsis

We live in an exciting time when elation over long-awaited change is mixed with fear of the risks involved. Our anticipation concerning the reorganisation of the Middle East through the [...]

7 ways to secure your wealth in gold

Bullion and Jewellery For centuries, gold coins and jewellery have been used as small-scale private investments and, for many people today, they remain a good place to start. It must [...]

Where gold is needed

In terms of trust, gold has a unique profile: it is the only ore that is generally believed to be precious enough to maintain its value over time. Unlike diamonds, [...]

2020: the next global crash

Everyone seems to agree on a soft landing for 2019, if with rather gloomy figures. Landing the Plane is the Goldman Sachs title of their analysis for 2019, although some strategists are [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 134 (April edition synopsis)

Uncovering false evidence is one of the missions of the GEAB team. At a time when the European Elections campaign is slowly starting to take off, bringing the migration issue [...]

YOUR INTELLIGENCE OF THE FUTURE

YOUR INTELLIGENCE OF THE FUTURE

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An anticipation exercise* conducted on a monthly basis by the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP).
* 75% success rate (on average, according to the annual evaluation)

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