Applying anticipation to world political and economic news

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European Tourism 2020-2030: The improbable alliance between tourism and protectionism

Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth in the global flow of tourists, the EU will soon cease to be the world's main tourist destination. We anticipate that, in 2025, Europe will lose its leading position to Asia. Over the next decade, the impact of a downturn, combined with the effects of increased competition, saturation and fatigue, and environmental considerations, all this in the context of a vast questioning of meaning, will lead to a complete repositioning of the European tourism sector. Reality has begun to remind Europe of the unsustainable nature of old-fashioned tourism in a century and a world that promises an explosion in the flow of tourists. Far from being able to continue to welcome half of this leisure travel, as is currently the case, Europe will have to protect itself from it. If this trend represents a crisis for all the players who will continue to rely on quantitative tourism, it will also provide a set of creative constraints that will allow Europe to carry out innovative experiences of high quality “protectionist tourism”! Multipolar world: Market share decrease for European tourism European tourism [...]

In summary

Future of the European Tourism : The ‘Lascaux Cave’ Syndrome

The Lascaux cave is a prehistoric site discovered in the Dordogne in 1940. Soon after, it was opened as a tourist attraction, which ended up endangering the magnificent rock paintings. [...]

Investments, trends and recommendations (jul 2019)

Air transportation: Turbulence zone We have already warned against the risk of crisis in this sector (aircraft manufacturers, airline companies and infrastructure). In fact, the crisis is already well under [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB special file: European tourism in crisis (synopsis)

European Tourism 2020-2030: The improbable alliance between tourism and protectionism Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth [...]

The virtualisation of the European financial system: towards a new stage of disintermediation

The IMF and the international financial institutions are preparing reforms of the international monetary system, which must also take into account this double injunction of efficiency (thus of modernity and [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 136 (June). Synopsis

The momentum for change is simply breath-taking, as we shall see in this next issue of the GEAB: the invention of new financing systems, the restructuring of the digital world, [...]

Mukesh Ambani, the Indian Jeff Bezos

Why him? Mukesh Ambani is not an emerging and promising young beginner. On the contrary, the 61-year-old has already made his mark as an Indian business magnate at the head [...]

NATO’s Budget Crisis

Since the 2014 Newport Summit, NATO has been proud to have obtained from member states a reaffirmation of the famous principle of 2% of GDP allocated to military spending. But [...]

Why this could be the right time to get into silver

Investing in silver is not something that all retail investors will immediately consider. The reasons often given for holding back are the high volatility together with some uncertainty as to [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 135 ! Synopsis

We live in an exciting time when elation over long-awaited change is mixed with fear of the risks involved. Our anticipation concerning the reorganisation of the Middle East through the [...]

7 ways to secure your wealth in gold

Bullion and Jewellery For centuries, gold coins and jewellery have been used as small-scale private investments and, for many people today, they remain a good place to start. It must [...]

Where gold is needed

In terms of trust, gold has a unique profile: it is the only ore that is generally believed to be precious enough to maintain its value over time. Unlike diamonds, [...]

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An anticipation exercise* conducted on a monthly basis by the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP).
* 75% success rate (on average, according to the annual evaluation)

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