Applying anticipation to world political and economic news

Your intelligence for the future

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What will post-COVID-19 Europe look like?

Reduced mobility, the tourism crisis, the green economy, dematerialisation of the economy, Euroland, digitalisation of central bank currencies, a radical reform of the international financial system, disruption of the European banking system, the end of liberalism, a paradigm shift and, even, our anticipation of a stabilisation phase in 2020... As we entered this new decade, we had to ask ourselves what the catalyst would be for all the upheavals that we had anticipated would occur in 2020. We did not have to wait long to see that a "pandemic fear" will establish the global systemic transition. Mr. Taleb's "black swans" don't matter after all: when a system has to break down, it breaks down... It's the good old rule of the last straw that breaks the camel's back... and that's what we call the "black swans" in the Manual of Political Anticipation: "last straw events". The challenge in such circumstances is to think straight, maintaining as much objectivity as possible in trying to discern what will ultimately emerge from the general panic. Of course, this depends on the scale and severity of the pandemic, but we are terribly tempted to simply go back to our vision of what we have [...]

In summary

Middle East 2020: Towards a New Political Deal

Wars have undoubtedly generated plagues. But do plagues generate wars? From a systemic point of view, the pandemic should be enough to seal the fate of the old system, inaugurate [...]

The financial system is facing a whole new world of pain in 2020

2019 was a bumper year for US stocks and, while much of Europe and the Far East faced tougher growth conditions brought on by more local concerns (Brexit, Hong-Kong etc.), [...]

Investments, trends and recommendations (March 2020)

Markets/financial products - Do we really need to mention this?  You don't need our insight to realise this, but for the sake of clarity: it's time to stay away from [...]

Soon the GEAB issue of March: Covid-19 and NewParadigm-20

It would be hard not to mention Covid-19 in this coming bulletin. But it’s also hard to think straight and bring the characteristic GEAB perspective into the current media hysteria. [...]

As anticipated by our team, OPEC is exploding…

Russia's recent defection to OPEC+ is causing oil prices to plummet and causing the collapse of OPEC, according to the Wall Street Journal. These latest twists and turns in the [...]

The IMF and Washington’s South American politics

(what the GEAB said in September 2019) In reality, the IMF is not up to the refinancing challenge implemented by its creators. Indeed, how can it face the 22 trillion [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 142 (February). Synopsis

After two months focused on the turn of the year (a review of 2019 in December and a preview of 2020 in January), in this next issue we will broaden [...]

Coming soon, the confidential GEAB 141 (January edition)

So January of the famous year 2020 has come! And with it comes our global panorama of trends and expectations. The task of presenting this is, perhaps, even harder than [...]

Best of 2019 : Most popular articles on geab.eu

GPS: Annual update of the global map Global systemic crisis – 2020: The beginning of the stabilisation phase October 31, 2019: The great “coup de Trafalgar” of the Anglo-Saxons GAFAM [...]

Coming soon, the confidential GEAB 140 (December edition)

At the dawn of this focal point of transformation that is the year 2020, and before we look at what it might hold for us, it is important to check, [...]

Monetary geopolitics: libra vs e-yuan

The immense stagnation of a eurozone trapped in a crumbling EU has caused many missouts. But two game-changers are shaking the monetary union from its lethargy. We are speaking of: [...]

Coming soon, the GEAB 139 (November issue). Synopsis

Social unrest is beginning to be perceived by the financial markets and economy as a possible trigger for the famous 2020 crisis: Demonstrations, increased public debt, budgetary crises, the redirection [...]

YOUR INTELLIGENCE OF THE FUTURE

YOUR INTELLIGENCE OF THE FUTURE

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An anticipation exercise* conducted on a monthly basis by the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP).
* 75% success rate (on average, according to the annual evaluation)

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