Applying anticipation to world political and economic news
Your intelligence for the future
A non-exhaustive review of global risk by continents/regions Geopolitical tensions will dominate the year 2020. From the most structural to the most cyclical, the reasons are: The multipolar world is no longer content just doing business and now wishes to defend its trade routes and hunting grounds (Europe, China, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran and Russia are now fully fledged geopolitical players alongside the United States – i.e. defending their own interests abroad). At the heart of this multipolar world there is growing strategic rivalry between the US and China. In a context of multiplying battlegrounds and budgetary difficulties, the United States is being forced to rethink its priorities, leading to two disrupting developments: Firstly, the resolution of past conflicts with a view to withdrawal (Middle East, Europe), creating two paths of disruption: resolution (action and concomitant risk-taking) and withdrawal (concerns and uncertainties linked to the disappearance of the American peacekeeper). Secondly, US redeployment/reinforcement towards new strategic interests (Arctic, China, South America), creating obvious friction. Internal disagreements on strategy in the US, exacerbated by the context of an election campaign where two visions of America (old and new) are at loggerheads and where some are putting fuel on the [...]
As an introduction to our traditional January “key trends”, here are the main guiding lines that we have identified for this “phoney year ”. This first year of the new [...]
Briefly annotated, here are some important dates to keep in mind as we look ahead to 2020. 31st January: EU – Official exit of the UK The beginning of some [...]
As we do every year, GEAB by LEAP is presenting a landscape of the key trends for the coming year. Besides the intellectual value of this LEAP contribution, which, of [...]
Bitcoin: Digital Gold The fairly sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin at the time of the Iranian-American crisis confirms the intuition we had in June: Bitcoin is acting as [...]
So January of the famous year 2020 has come! And with it comes our global panorama of trends and expectations. The task of presenting this is, perhaps, even harder than [...]
GPS: Annual update of the global map Global systemic crisis – 2020: The beginning of the stabilisation phase October 31, 2019: The great “coup de Trafalgar” of the Anglo-Saxons GAFAM [...]
At the dawn of this focal point of transformation that is the year 2020, and before we look at what it might hold for us, it is important to check, [...]
The immense stagnation of a eurozone trapped in a crumbling EU has caused many missouts. But two game-changers are shaking the monetary union from its lethargy. We are speaking of: [...]
Social unrest is beginning to be perceived by the financial markets and economy as a possible trigger for the famous 2020 crisis: Demonstrations, increased public debt, budgetary crises, the redirection [...]
Excerpt from the GEAB 138 / 15 Oct. 2019: "The left-wing president, Evo Morales, is running for a fourth term despite the constitutional limit and a referendum against circumventing the [...]
This phenomenon of the limits being tested and rejected as ineffective is also playing a role in the difficulties encountered by Matteo Salvini and Boris Johnson in Europe, both of [...]
Last month, we forecast a "change of direction" in US foreign policy. With the Trump-Erdogan agreement allowing Turkey to launch a military offensive in northern Syria at the same time [...]
The fundamentalist religious movements are being strengthened in a world where change frightens poorly educated populations that are suspicious of modernity. They are also strengthened by the political manoeuvring. This [...]
