Applying anticipation to world political and economic news
Your intelligence for the future
Reduced mobility, the tourism crisis, the green economy, dematerialisation of the economy, Euroland, digitalisation of central bank currencies, a radical reform of the international financial system, disruption of the European banking system, the end of liberalism, a paradigm shift and, even, our anticipation of a stabilisation phase in 2020... As we entered this new decade, we had to ask ourselves what the catalyst would be for all the upheavals that we had anticipated would occur in 2020. We did not have to wait long to see that a "pandemic fear" will establish the global systemic transition. Mr. Taleb's "black swans" don't matter after all: when a system has to break down, it breaks down... It's the good old rule of the last straw that breaks the camel's back... and that's what we call the "black swans" in the Manual of Political Anticipation: "last straw events". The challenge in such circumstances is to think straight, maintaining as much objectivity as possible in trying to discern what will ultimately emerge from the general panic. Of course, this depends on the scale and severity of the pandemic, but we are terribly tempted to simply go back to our vision of what we have [...]
Wars have undoubtedly generated plagues. But do plagues generate wars? From a systemic point of view, the pandemic should be enough to seal the fate of the old system, inaugurate [...]
2019 was a bumper year for US stocks and, while much of Europe and the Far East faced tougher growth conditions brought on by more local concerns (Brexit, Hong-Kong etc.), [...]
Markets/financial products - Do we really need to mention this? You don't need our insight to realise this, but for the sake of clarity: it's time to stay away from [...]
It would be hard not to mention Covid-19 in this coming bulletin. But it’s also hard to think straight and bring the characteristic GEAB perspective into the current media hysteria. [...]
Russia's recent defection to OPEC+ is causing oil prices to plummet and causing the collapse of OPEC, according to the Wall Street Journal. These latest twists and turns in the [...]
(what the GEAB said in September 2019) In reality, the IMF is not up to the refinancing challenge implemented by its creators. Indeed, how can it face the 22 trillion [...]
After two months focused on the turn of the year (a review of 2019 in December and a preview of 2020 in January), in this next issue we will broaden [...]
So January of the famous year 2020 has come! And with it comes our global panorama of trends and expectations. The task of presenting this is, perhaps, even harder than [...]
GPS: Annual update of the global map Global systemic crisis – 2020: The beginning of the stabilisation phase October 31, 2019: The great “coup de Trafalgar” of the Anglo-Saxons GAFAM [...]
At the dawn of this focal point of transformation that is the year 2020, and before we look at what it might hold for us, it is important to check, [...]
The immense stagnation of a eurozone trapped in a crumbling EU has caused many missouts. But two game-changers are shaking the monetary union from its lethargy. We are speaking of: [...]
Social unrest is beginning to be perceived by the financial markets and economy as a possible trigger for the famous 2020 crisis: Demonstrations, increased public debt, budgetary crises, the redirection [...]
