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War in Ukraine: A Chronicle of a never-ending era

For our traditional dive into the archives in August, we have logically chosen the major theme of this year 2022: the entry of Russian forces in Ukraine. The interest of this exercise is primordial to our work of anticipation, and it makes more sense on such a burning subject. As we mentioned in our March […]

Russia-Ukraine: What new world order are we heading for?

Among the few certainties to be formulated about the Russian-Ukrainian war, there is this one: it is the end of the Cold War! … in that it has now become “hot”, which mainly changes everything. As we have already said about the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan last September[1], 1989 was not “the end” […]

A simple vision of NATO’s future (in a nutshell)

As Russians and Americans clash on both sides of the EU’s Eastern borders, let us summarise our analysis of the strategy being carried out and the objectives being pursued. In our opinion, a game is being played around Ukraine to move the lines of the trap into which everyone fell in 2014 and which represents […]

Global Political Agenda: The major events of the next 3 months

Our team is always impressed by the broad vision provided by this exercise in exploring the future of the upcoming major political events. Whilst checking the following elections in Africa, South America and Eastern Europe in particular, we are struck by the gigantic wave of transformation sweeping or about to sweep the global political scene. […]

Game-changer 2024: Towards a break in NATO’s nuclear sharing

In 2024, the German military fighter planes that guarantee the country’s role in NATO’s nuclear sharing will be outdated. If this equipment is not replaced, Germany will no longer be able to host US nuclear weapons on its soil. This would be a major break in the transatlantic defence cooperation. Nuclear sharing is one of […]

2022: Strengthening the Franco-British European Defence Pivot

The post-election statement made by German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (“The idea of European strategic independence goes too far if it nurtures the illusion that we can ensure Europe’s security, stability and prosperity without NATO and the U.S.”)[1] requires France to revise its defence strategies and priorities. We anticipate that Macron’s desire to build a […]

GEAB GPS: Annual update of the map

This in-depth assessment of our anticipations for the year will be used to update our map of major global transformational trends. We present here a synthesis of a year of anticipations tested against reality and placed in a more classical temporal continuum (past and present). This meticulous work is specially intended to enable everyone to […]

NATO’s Budget Crisis

Since the 2014 Newport Summit, NATO has been proud to have obtained from member states a reaffirmation of the famous principle of 2% of GDP allocated to military spending.[1] But the reality is darker. Figure 1 – GDP share allocated to military spending, by country, 2014 and 2018. Source: CNBC.   Even though Trump or […]

A theoretical exercise – NATO: What happens if Israel attacks Turkey?

NATO is a 70-year-old baby boomer… just like the Organisation of American States (69), Mao Tse Tong’s Communist Republic of China, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Democratic Republic of Germany, the Treaty of Rome (72 years), the State of Israel (71 years), the Geneva Convention, George Orwell’s 1984 novel[1], Antonio Guterres, Bernard Arnault, Donald […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 134 (April edition synopsis)

Uncovering false evidence is one of the missions of the GEAB team. At a time when the European Elections campaign is slowly starting to take off, bringing the migration issue in the forefront, it seems appropriate to take a more detached look at this subject. No, migration flows from Africa to Europe are not expected […]

NATO, central banks, migrant crisis, TTIP, technologies … Western elites in panic mode for a future in the form of a question mark

Considering the barrage of change indicators, our GEAB team currently feels like they don’t know where to start in order to provide a coherent and complete picture of the crisis. Yet, this feeling is probably nothing compared to what our leaders and their advisers experience. A sense of loss of control of the flow of […]

NATO, the IMF, divisions, Grexit… Looking out to 2020: the return of European wars ?

In the face of some rather worrying indicators in recent months, we have got to the point of asking ourselves the question of the likelihood of a return of European wars looking out to 2020. Actually, it’s not because our team continues to see the crisis’ exit tracks falling into place, that it doesn’t keep watch […]

NATO 2006 – The year of global dilution and of EU/US decoupling

Riga, November 28-29, 2006 – The upcoming NATO summit, which chose to take place on former soviet soil in order to symbolize the success of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, is likely to be remembered  as the Summit where two opposite trends thrust the Alliance into the ongoing global systemic crisis, and as the symbol […]