Home Blog November 2024 – February 2025: Turmoil in the American Interregnum (Summary of the GEAB 190)

November 2024 – February 2025: Turmoil in the American Interregnum (Summary of the GEAB 190)

The violent geopolitical upheavals of recent weeks have undoubtedly caught your attention. Across the globe, several critical situations have seen sudden developments: an aborted coup in South Korea, Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, political crises in France and Germany, canceled elections in Romania, protests in Georgia, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, intensifying influence battles in the Sahel, a “massive” Russian attack on Ukraine, and the return of the Islamic State.

Emerging from the inertia that characterised a 2024 held in suspense by the results of the U.S. election, the multipolar world is gearing up for action in a clarified geopolitical context. For now, it looks like a highly dangerous domino effect.

However, looking beyond the shocks that are unfolding at a frenetic pace, our team dares to show a touch of “optimism.” It is the troop movements stirring up all this dust, as the final cards of the Biden Era are played as quickly as possible. But by early February, if everything hasn’t already imploded, a new dynamic is expected to emerge.

The players capable of guaranteeing global security (NATO, the United States, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Europe, …) will have no choice but to work together to stabilise the multipolar world. The challenge will be to identify a common enemy to facilitate any form of cooperation. The resurgence of the Islamic State could serve this purpose—just as it did in the previous decade by bringing major Middle Eastern players together around the Abraham Accords.

While the 2024 election agenda was exceptionally packed, the current year is still full of surprises. And 2025 already promises to be extremely turbulent on the geopolitical front. This is the main takeaway from our critical analysis of global banks and financial institutions’ reports on 2025 trends. Given the uncertainty of our times, in this December issue we will share our perspective on the projections of major financial players (Barclays, ING, Goldman Sachs, etc.).

Naturally, December marks the time for our annual self-evaluation. We are particularly proud in the work accomplished in January, achieving a 74.19% success rate. Our anticipation errors serve as a valuable reminder to our readers of the humility required when navigating the future and challenging the certainties that clutter our minds. The GEAB does not claim to assert anything definitive; instead, it offers facts and logical reasoning to all forward-thinking individuals who engage with our work.

In this issue you will also find our thoughts on the impact of AI in our workplace and the emergence of the Super-Collaborator, augmented by multiple AI assistants. The fruit of ongoing work with master’s students, teachers and company representatives, you’ll find some ideas for training and human resources management, whether you’re an employee, manager or entrepreneur.

Finally, as part of our investments, trends and recommendations section, you can read our anticipations on China’s restrictions on rare earth imports to the United States and the resulting risks of conflict across the Asian continent.

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  • Editorial – American Interregnum: From inertia to unrest
  • The world’s next Public Enemy no. 1 – China replacing Russia? Not so fast
  • Outlook 2025 – The year through the lens of major Western financial players
  • 2024 Trends Panorama – Our evaluation
  • Enterprise 2035 – Shaping the role of the Super-Collaborator
  • 2025 – Asia at the centre of rare earth conflicts
  • Investments, trends and recommendations
  • Join our GEAB Book Club with monthly online gatherings to discuss news, articles, meet experts and improve anticipation skills. The next meeting is scheduled for December 20th, at 6 PM.
    Fill in a form to register for the book club!

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