ALERT
The global economy is heading towards a period of major turbulence by 2027. Whilst official statements seek to reassure by referring to a ‘soft landing’, a convergence of financial, fiscal and geopolitical indicators points towards a deep recession, or even a prolonged period of stagflation. As previous crises have shown, maritime transport is both one of the earliest indicators of systemic breakdowns and one of the most powerful catalysts for macroeconomic crises.
The prospect of a recession is becoming clearer
Several prominent figures on Wall Street, such as the billionaire Leon Cooperman[1], are already sounding the alarm. Their arguments are based in particular on the observation that stock markets are clearly overvalued, especially in the technology sector, which is fuelled by an artificial intelligence bubble whose colossal financial requirements are still struggling to demonstrate an immediate return on investment.
Compounding this fragility are several concurrent factors, such as persistent inflationary pressures fuelled by energy costs and tensions over critical raw materials; the gradual loss of momentum in household consumption, as households are increasingly stifled by mounting debt; and the need for central banks to maintain high interest rates.
At the institutional level, the outlooks from the OECD[2], the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)[3] and the High Council for Public Finances (HCFP) in France[4] highlight the major risks of simultaneous fiscal tightening[5] : the EU’s own debt could reach 1,000 billion by 2027 against a backdrop of rising expenditure errors[6]; as for global debt, it is inexorably approaching 100% of GDP according to the IMF, which was also sounding the alarm at the start of this month[7].
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