ANTICIPATION
An important presidential election will take place in 2027, the election of the next French president, who will inherit a stratospheric debt[1], a geopolitically weakened France[2] and a major social crisis[3]. Good luck to whoever takes on the job.
The two rounds will take place in mid-April to early May. So there are still six months to go before polling day, and yet polls, analysts and candidates have been in full swing since even before the summer, locking horns, attempting to influence and commenting at length on every move made by the French political establishment.
As for predictions, everyone is certain of one thing: Marine Le Pen’s National Rally – RN (radical right or far right, depending on the source) will reach the second round[4]. The only two questions are: ‘against whom?’ and ‘can she win the second round?’.
Whilst the GEAB’s methodology involves questioning certainties, we do not share all our reflections with our readers, but only those that lead to a relevant hypothesis. In this case, we consider it useful to outline the scenario we currently favour, in which the RN is NOT in the second round.
The RN is leading in all the polls Login
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