TERRA COGNITA 2089
Terra Cognita 2089 is a project mapping the medium to long-term future as it takes shape through the strategic documents of major emerging players. These documents are assessed against the realities on the ground and the critical analysis of the project’s designers, Christopher Cordey and Marie-Hélène Caillol, whose analyses are featured in this dedicated section of the GEAB.
In March–April 2027, the Terra Cognita 2089 team will travel to Morocco to physically explore the country’s future ‘along the waterways’ (this article is the result of preparatory research for the study trip). Indeed, Morocco has made water security one of the pillars of its strategy for 2050[1]. Dams, inter-basin transfers, water recovery, desalination…, the Kingdom is building rapidly to reduce its dependence on rainfall. But this new control also shifts vulnerabilities towards energy, capital, infrastructure and perhaps the ocean itself.
We cannot understand Morocco’s trajectory if one begins with industry, ports or diplomacy. We must start with water.
Morocco’s water stress is well established. In 1960, each Moroccan had 2,560 m³ of renewable water per year; by 2020, this had fallen to 620 m³. Around 2030, the country will fall below 500 m³, the threshold for absolute scarcity[2]. Within a single human lifetime, the per capita water supply will have fallen by more than fourfold due to the combined effects of population growth, climate change and development that has long been based on increasing water abstraction.
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