GEAB 192
2025: Western Sahara, the new investment hotspot!
We believe that the Morocco-Algerian disagreement over the Western Sahara will come to an end by 2025. Progress has been slow but steady. In 2020, Trump broke the support – both unconditional and ineffective – of the West as a whole (France, Spain, Europe, the United States, the United Nations) for the Polisario Front’s demand for independence of the Western Sahara by recognising Morocco’s sovereignty over the former Spanish territory[1]. Two years later, Spain rallied to this new dynamic by considering the Moroccan project for Saharan autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty[2], followed by France in 2024[3]. That leaves the EU and the UN on the one hand, the former amid a legitimacy crisis, the latter during a reform process… and Algeria, of course, on the other.
On this last point, the former French colony has just entered the dance of the future Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, weighing in on the side of the Arab countries to obtain the creation of a Palestinian state and promising that, as soon as this condition was met, it would “normalise” its relations with Israel[4] – by which is intended to recognise the State of Israel and sign the Abraham Accords. Algeria’s rapprochement with the Israel-Saudi Arabia-United States camp has been strengthened by the signing of a memorandum of understanding on defence which Algeria has just signed with the United States[5] and which puts Morocco and Algeria on the same side, a side working on the one hand for the creation of a Palestinian state (instead of a Polisarian state) and on the other hand for the resolution of the Sahraoui question, which has been blocking the dynamics of regional integration of the Maghreb countries for so long.
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