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The decline of populism in Europe

This phenomenon of the limits being tested and rejected as ineffective is also playing a role in the difficulties encountered by Matteo Salvini and Boris Johnson in Europe, both of whom have to face a “united front” of big parties joining together to block a third big party considered to be endangering the country by […]

2020: The transatlantic trap of the new Greece

Since July 8, the ‘Tsipras parenthesis’ that did so much to enrage the European Union, the United States and so many other interests, was closed. The wind of hope and renewal that blew over the country in 2015, when a man who didn’t come from one of the great dynasties (Samaras, Mitsotákis, Papandreou, Karamanlis) succeeded […]

GlobalEurope Future Agenda (October-February): 56 dates that will change the world (or not)

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’56 events that […]

October 31, 2019: The great “coup de Trafalgar” of the Anglo-Saxons

As an overview and introduction to our GlobalEurope Future Agenda in 56 dates, we anticipate a year’s end full of surprises and reversals – ‘surprises’ in terms of mainstream media thinking, but in line with many of our past analyses. Brexit: Protectionist England or Protectionist Europe? At the heart of these trend reversals, there is […]

Bolton – World – US 2020: An American Perestroika

In line with our anticipations in 2006 regarding the fall of the second half of the bipolar system centred around Russia and the United States, the recent dismissal of Trump’s security adviser, the neo-conservative John Bolton, is in our view a historic event of the same symbolic significance as Gorbachev’s launch of perestroika[1]. By openly […]

The world after Trump: What undermined the status quo ante?

If we first look at the number of driving forces, there are a large number, and although some are well known and clear, others are more obscure and less well understood: Society: growing real and perceived inequality It seems that in most countries, the gap between extremely rich and poor has been growing in the […]

US-China Negotiations: A New Yalta (two excerpts from the February GEAB bulletin)

On February 15 we drew a parallel between the US-Chinese “trade” negotiations and the historic treaties on world-sharing, such as Tordesillas or Yalta, ideas which now seem to interest some other analysts (The Conversation, February 27, 2019). Here is what we mentioned on this topic in our last GEAB bulletin: ‘Of course, there is also […]

Calendar of future events (February-May 2019): 26 dates that will change the world… or not

To be able to advance in a complex world that is in full transition, it is helpful to have a GPS system. This triannual calendar of future events is one of the many guides that GEAB offers to readers to help them navigate through the fog of the future. Here are the ’26 events that […]

Multipolar World 2022: India’s Power Strategy via Washington

In view of China’s demographic being overtaken by India by 2022, India will use the structuring rivalry of the new world order emerging between the United States and China to advance its own interests, by operating a tactical rapprochement with Washington. This new partnership will be part of a struggle against Chinese trade surpluses and […]

United States, Fed, T-Bonds: The US federal level will undergo a budgetary slimming regime

The United States and Europe present striking similarities in their destinies. The way Brexit (itself a negative event) manages to free an EU paralysed by vast structural dysfunctions; Trump’s election (so traumatic for the Americans) probably provides an opportunity to redeem the country (and its partners) from a stifling allegiance system. We have repeatedly shown […]

A changing paradigm: Glimpses of what is coming after the global “nationalist” wave (or From Trump to what?)

 We hereby inaugurate a series of articles by the title « Changing paradigm » aimed at anticipating the different economic and political models that are emerging on the horizon of the new multipolar world, their expansion processes and modes of interaction. Introduction: the scene is set The election of President Trump was clearly an important expression of […]

The Global Systemic Crisis at the end of 2018: A day of reckoning… or How ASEAN will save the world

The reinforcement of the transatlantic relationship,[1] secret operations on all sides,[2] skirmishes between the Chinese and North Americans in the China Sea,[3] trade wars, hard rights rising, warning shots on financial markets[4]… It looks like the world is about to switch to “something completely different” (as the Monty Pythons would say). An explosion of markets? […]

2018-2020 Financial Crisis: Turning a Dollar Rain into a Wealth Harvest

Apprehension goes hand-in-hand with financial matters. Last April, the alarmist IMF announcements predicted a huge crisis by 2020 linked to the level of global debt that ten years of ‘crisis management’ have not brought under control. Rather, US public debt has doubled in absolute terms (from $10,000 billion to $20,000 billion), the EU’s debt has […]

US Debt / Inflation: The FED as a support tool for Mr Trump’s objectives

At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones Index erased its January gains and entered a downward spiral. Since then, the financial world has been looking feverish. The correction developed its own momentum, […]

United States: The temptation of a “Military QE”

End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich […]

Global Systemic Crisis 2017-2021 – A phase of chaotic recomposition of the World: national re-landing, crash or rebound?

This expression “chaotic recomposition” seems best to summarise the phase where we currently are with regards to the development of the crisis, a step indicated here as extending over four years and which will include distinct progression phases. It is quite clear that efforts to reorganise the world on a transnational logic have all failed […]

Trump’s America: the lifting of the US default taboo

Without Kissinger to negotiate the petrodollar and put the US currency back to the centre of the global game after the shock of Nixon’s announcement in 1971 to halt the convertibility of the dollar to gold, the greenback would never have been the world benchmark since more than 40 years. Will Trump really know how […]

China 2017 – Towards a Total Course Change

Since Deng Xiaoping, in the ’70s, gave top priority to economic development[1], China has made tremendous sacrifices. Having worked hard and cheap and polluting its country, it soon became the workshop of the world. But all those sacrifices were not in vain. Barely 15 years later for instance, in 1993, Shanghai was able to launch […]