Home China

Category: China

Investments, trends and recommendations (May)

CBDC, critical materials, digital industries, green energies, electric cars… China leads the way The transition to CBDCs adds another layer of digitalisation, and will put further strain on markets under pressure. This reform of the monetary system relies once again on the digital tools that are already at the heart of our economic and political […]

2024 Electoral Calendar: Weak signals in a changing world

While two elections capture the world’s attention – the European elections in June and the US presidential election on 5 November – there are other elections on the international calendar that also merit our scrutiny to spot the subtle signals of a changing world landscape. The beginning of the year was marked by the Taiwanese […]

Chinese investments in North Africa and the Middle East: A shift in the centre of gravity

Egypt lies at the crossroads of trade routes, providing a link between two major regions: North Africa and the Arab countries. This strategic geographical position puts Egypt, in North Africa, in direct contact with the Middle East, while at the same time bordering one of the world’s most important shipping routes, the Suez Canal. These […]

2030 – Latin America, the new epicentre in the US-China Economic Battle

By January 1st, 2024, Argentina was expected to become a member of the BRICS bloc, alongside Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates[1]. However, Milei’s election as President abruptly reversed the country’s diplomatic trajectory, with a very marked pro-American shift, embodied in the desire to dollarise the economy. Such a choice implies […]

Editorial – World order plate tectonics

Similar to the gradual movement of continents, the reshaping of the global order is a protracted and gradual phenomenon when examined on a monthly scale. While marked by intense clashes that give rise to mountain ranges and definitive separations resulting in straits, seas, or oceans, geopolitical plate tectonics unfolds over an extended period. Between the […]

China 2030: The Global Public Debt and Chinese Debt Equation

With the subprime crisis (2007/2009), the rescue plans for banks and financial institutions reached such dizzying heights that we did not expect to see them again any time soon. Since then, the global debt clock has continued to churn out figures that are just as crazy… Between the Covid crisis (2020/2021), the Afghan debacle (2021), […]

Editorial – 2025-2030: Fast-track Creative Destruction

Anticipation means always looking a little further ahead and striving to think the unthinkable. So, when all the signs point to destruction, to collapse, we need to remain clear-headed so as not to overlook the elements of renewal, the signs of creation. Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction is useful in this regard. […]

Five years of China’s Reinvention: The Emergence of a new Geopolitical Model

To be fair, political anticipation requires us to look back at past forecasts. This is what the LEAP team does every August by delving into the GEAB archives. This year, we went back to 2017 to rediscover our anticipations on China’s global power. While China’s position on the world stage is complex in relation to […]

Systemic shift: From Made in China to Powered by China

China’s economy weakened further in August 2021 after a fresh Covid outbreak curbed consumer spending[1]. To relaunch the economy after the Covid-19 crisis, the country continued its old-style supply boost by starting state sponsored projects and reinforcing factories to produce more and more. Yet, as data has shown, internal demand in China has not risen […]

The China-AUKUS war will not happen

The new military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) illustrates nothing more than a reheating of the Cold War between China and the West. In this barely concealed confrontation, blocs are beginning to take shape: in the West, an Anglo-Saxon bloc in the midst of an attempt to recompose itself […]

Global Britain-China 2021-2024: The fundamental systemic rivalry

As Biden puts the kibosh on US anti-China rhetoric – by reversing Trump’s actions against TikTok and WeChat,[1] for example – our team anticipates that a far more fundamental systemic rivalry will soon become evident: that between the UK and China. And make no mistake: the forces at play are far less unbalanced than they […]

Iron ore 2026: Guinea at the core of the emergence of a new market

The price of the 2nd most traded commodity (oil being number one[1]) is soaring. At a time of recovery and infrastructure plans, and illustrating the “back to basics” trend, iron ore is the object of all sorts of lusts. While some incumbent interests prefer to optimise their margins by letting prices rise, others are working […]

Space 2030: The Chinese New Deal

By 2030, the International Space Station may have become the first space museum of the late 1990s, when everyone tried to work together. By prohibiting the Chinese from boarding the ISS in 2011,[1] the US compelled China to go its own way. As a result, like during the Cold War years, the next stage of […]

2025 – The day the world will drop the West for China…

In the US-China war trap which has deepened in recent years, with Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House and his strategy of rallying a camp of “allies” around America in order to “contain” Chinese power,[1] Europeans may be tempted to believe that the Western camp will eventually win. This feeling is reinforced by the […]

Investments, trends and recommendations (Nov 2020)

Material wealth: give nothing away Tomorrow’s world will be digital, that’s for sure. But not before it has been regulated, organised and controlled. As things stand today, there are too many dangers hanging over this ecosystem – soon to materialise, as we see in this issue – for us to entrust our goods and wealth […]

Coming up next, the GEAB bulletin of November. Synopsis

As the media heralds the Democrat candidate’s victory, the western world is living through another of the great illusions that we described last month: under Biden, America is back on top and the world has been saved! And the good news keeps on coming, what with the discovery of a miracle vaccine that the American […]

US Tempted by Petroyuan

Remember! Back in 2017 we anticipated that Saudi Arabia would soon be selling its oil in yuan? This was a highly provocative hypothesis at the time, since the country was then one of the two pillars of the petrodollar system.[1] Two years later, it became clear that export flows of Saudi oil were making a […]

The anger of the people: “It’s politics, Stupid!”

Popular protests are growing and multiplying: from Arab spring, Occupy Wall Street, Indignados, Maidan, populist votes, to the yellow vests, Iraq, Algeria, demonstrations against global warming, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Venezuela, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia… The streets are on fire, the markets are faltering and the only explanations being given are poverty, increasing disparity, taxes – “the […]