Home China

Category: China

Hong Kong 2025: A suburb of Shenzhen

Between a USD-pegged currency (the HKD) and the reaffirmation of its Chinese nature after its handover in 1997, Hong Kong lies right at the heart of the famous trade war between the United States and China. This context largely explains the island’s economic difficulties, creating the conditions for the well-known troubles. A longer-term perspective also […]

Coming soon, the GEAB special file: European tourism in crisis (synopsis)

European Tourism 2020-2030: The improbable alliance between tourism and protectionism Contrary to the feverish dreams of officials in Brussels and our capitals, fuelled by the prospect of an exponential growth in the global flow of tourists, the EU will soon cease to be the world’s main tourist destination. We anticipate that, in 2025, Europe will […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 134 (April edition synopsis)

Uncovering false evidence is one of the missions of the GEAB team. At a time when the European Elections campaign is slowly starting to take off, bringing the migration issue in the forefront, it seems appropriate to take a more detached look at this subject. No, migration flows from Africa to Europe are not expected […]

The world after Trump: What undermined the status quo ante?

If we first look at the number of driving forces, there are a large number, and although some are well known and clear, others are more obscure and less well understood: Society: growing real and perceived inequality It seems that in most countries, the gap between extremely rich and poor has been growing in the […]

Coming soon, the GEAB 133 (March edition synopsis)

The latent financial crisis, the invention of a new world monetary system, the world being shared between China and the United States, American military withdrawal, European disintegration, civil wars and border tensions, the reorganisation of the world map; we don’t know where to look first in the gigantic global reshuffle that is underway. The common […]

US-China Negotiations: A New Yalta (two excerpts from the February GEAB bulletin)

On February 15 we drew a parallel between the US-Chinese “trade” negotiations and the historic treaties on world-sharing, such as Tordesillas or Yalta, ideas which now seem to interest some other analysts (The Conversation, February 27, 2019). Here is what we mentioned on this topic in our last GEAB bulletin: ‘Of course, there is also […]

Food autonomy threatened by Chinese investments and needs

A symptom of the complete opening up of the market by the Commission that poses a threat to European food security is the acquisition of agricultural land by foreign investors, particularly Chinese investors. Indeed, the investments of the Middle Kingdom in foreign agricultural lands have jumped up in recent years. They totalled at least $94 […]

“Thanks” to China, EU will adopt the pro-trade protectionist model (what the GEAB said in March 2018)

As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium.  In addition to the duty of protecting this industry and the jobs connected with it, he was motivated by the strategic nature of this sector which is intrinsically linked to the army. Economy, employment, […]

First semester of 2019 – Anger of nations, Balkans, end of the QE, Special Purpose Vehicle, Brexit, Elections… Europe: Countdowns are on!

The ‘yellow vests’ (FR),[1] the pro- and anti-Brexit protests (UK),[2] the German political crisis (DE),[3] the Catalan independence movement (SP),[4] the budget battle (IT),[5] the labour law reform (HU),[6] the Marrakesh agreement and ministerial reshuffle (BE)[7]… the European element in the increasingly violent crises currently feeding the national news is striking. Disclaimer: We recommend that […]

The internationalisation of the Yuan: Securing China’s financial system

China’s decision to introduce in 2018 the gold-convertible petro-gazo-Yuan currency is an important step in the process of internationalisation of the Yuan. It confirms the will of Beijing (asserted for a decade already) to impose the Renminbi (official name of the Chinese currency) as new global reference currency. In October 2016 the IMF decided to […]

2018 Multipolar globalisation: EU adopts the pro-trade protectionist model

As we all know, Donald Trump kicked off the reinvention of trade relationships by imposing customs barriers on steel and aluminium.  In addition to the duty of protecting this industry and the jobs connected with it, he was motivated by the strategic nature of this sector which is intrinsically linked to the army. Economy, employment, […]

China’s one belt, one road initiative: Impact on Europe’s neglected railway system

Europe’s out-of-time love for low-cost air carriers Europe is in love with low-cost air transport. Over the past few years the low-budget end of air transport has boomed, globally and in Europe alike. The sector grows as fast as few others. More people than ever choose air transport over railways, despite the fact, that Europe […]

The Great Petro-Yuan Temptation

The world’s biggest oil importer, China is preparing to launch gold-backed Yuan-denominated oil futures, possibly creating the most important Asian benchmark in the oil sector, allowing oil exporters to switch from US dollar-denominated assets by transactions in Yuan[1]. To make the Yuan-denominated contracts more attractive, China plans to have the Yuan fully convertible into gold […]

United States: The temptation of a “Military QE”

End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich […]

Western Systemic Crisis 2017-2019 – The Almighty dollar against the Great Petro-Yuan Temptation

Qatar, North Korea, the Baltic Sea, risk of a World War III… and all the military ranting mentioned in the media lately, are issues going hand in hand with the programmed and imminent advent of the catastrophic scenario for the dollar as a unique world reference currency: the Petro-Yuan will be in place at the […]

China 2017 – Towards a Total Course Change

Since Deng Xiaoping, in the ’70s, gave top priority to economic development[1], China has made tremendous sacrifices. Having worked hard and cheap and polluting its country, it soon became the workshop of the world. But all those sacrifices were not in vain. Barely 15 years later for instance, in 1993, Shanghai was able to launch […]

Demon-etisation: India opens with a fanfare the ball of the fiscal QEs

Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the Indian government is trying to reintegrate into the official economy the state’s gigantic […]

Chinese debt, global debts, interest rates: the insolvent countries no longer have friends

As we have already discussed and explained before, the crisis is now taking a more geopolitical form. Does this mean that the economic-financial crisis is over? No one will accuse us of having pretended that. If need be, we can confirm that the crisis is always there, always vivid, and it is in perfect shape […]