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Oil struggles, 2026–2028: When demand outpaces supply

Since 2024, Washington has been encouraging its allies to sign massive commitments to purchase American hydrocarbons in order to secure their supply and consolidate the influence of the United States. In 2025, the European Union is talking about $250 billion in annual purchases, whereas its imports in 2024 amounted to around $76 billion[1]. South Korea, for its part, has announced an agreement worth around $100 billion over three to four years, representing a 30-50% increase on its recent flows[2].

In fact, the United States is already exporting at record levels: more than 4 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2024 and nearly 12 billion cubic feet per day of LNG, ranking first in the world[3]. However, turning these promises into deliverable volumes will require more drilling, pipelines and terminals, with commissioning scheduled for 2025–2028 (Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Golden Pass, Port Arthur), representing an increase in liquefaction capacity of around 10–13 Gpi³/d by the end of the decade[4].

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