Home Overview 2025: Europe stands alone against its demons

GEAB 191

The monthly bulletin of LEAP (European Laboratory of Political Anticipation) - 15 Jan 2025

Overview 2025: Europe stands alone against its demons

With the US withdrawal from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict now in sight, Europe will be forced to confront its own responsibilities and the European edifice will likely crumble under the weight of reality.

As we’ve previously mentioned[1], Europe’s ideological straitjacket will be violently challenged in 2025, marking one of the defining features of the year, in a world rapidly reorganising on new grounds, leaving Europe to grapple with its political and strategic weaknesses, but also its deep divisions that will come to the fore, and countless paradoxical injunctions. In particular, Europe will be torn between two conflicting paths: the temptation to align itself with Trump’s America in a multipolar West[2] – reviving patriotism within the framework of a very large economic and strategic Alliance stretching from the Americas to Russia (and all its former satellites). On the other, Europe will hold on to its old dream of strategic autonomy[3], associated with the unification of a European continent whose limits have become unclear, built on “values” that many no longer identify with. All this on the basis of the immense discrediting of the “classic” political classes, early elections[4], resignations, parliamentary dissolutions[5], failed coalition attempts, and so on[6].  

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Contents

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