Europe’s geopolitical game of musical chairs
End of the war in Ukraine
During the first half of the year, a peace agreement will have been signed between the Russians and the Ukrainians, with the help of the United States and China, by bringing major new players like Turkey to the table. The terms of the agreement preserve the integrity of Ukrainian territory, with the exception of Crimea, where a new referendum could be held under the auspices of the UN. The agreement provides for the deployment of peacekeeping forces in eastern Ukraine (probably American initially) with a timetable for gradual withdrawal (and transition to NATO troops – see next point).
NATO: Official launch of a 4-year reform project
Following the signing of the Peace Agreement, NATO will be asked to integrate Russia or see the United States step back. Europe will initially be divided over the response, between those who will insist that NATO should also serve Russia’s interests, those who cannot imagine a NATO without the United States and those who will see this as an opportunity to transform NATO into a European Defence. By 2025, we believe that a consensus on an America-Europe-Russia NATO will emerge, de facto launching the 4-year reform process of the Organisation in this direction.
Donald Tusk has emerged as a European pillar since France and Germany have been forced to deal with unstable political situations. With Poland taking over the rotating presidency of the EU in the first half of 2025, Donald Tusk is expected to embody a strong and sovereign Europe in the face of Donald Trump. We anticipate that Tusk will not be able to exist in the midst of the different tendencies listed above, since in the context of a reform of NATO, he will be too torn between categorical opposition to Russia and the desire for a sovereign European Defence, but not sufficiently anchored to stand up to the United States. A new NATO integrating the United States, Europe and Russia can only be effectively supported by Germany.
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