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United States: Will the elastic snap?
For a long time, the elastic has been stretched between a country in great social and economic distress on the one hand and a real global power on the other. During his first term, Donald Trump gave the impression of wanting to prioritise the country over its global power. However, as we analysed some time ago, his second term was inevitably rooted in a compromise that involved tackling both issues head-on. The problem is that the two cannot be addressed at the same time. As a result, the strategy is once again a classic one: “external power will give us the means to rebuild a functional society”.
And indeed, Trump I + Biden + Trump II have restored lustre to the American economy and three years after the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act, the United States is reaping the rewards of its massive relocation, which is helping it to attract ever more foreign capital. Yet there is a lot of over-communication behind these American successes and, above all, a vast under-communication of the dynamics driving the rest of the world. The reality is that the omnipresence of the United States in the international media hides acute national misery: a state of quasi-civil war in some places, job losses due to AI, growing household and corporate debt, bankruptcies, the longest shutdown in the country’s history, and so on.
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