Coming soon, the GEAB 187 bulletin. In this issue…

2025 – The European economy breaks free from EU shackles

Isn’t it time to recognise that the European Union’s legislative and political straitjacket is stifling the continent’s economies? While EU regulations may have once been a global asset, this increasingly rigid and demanding framework now stands in contrast to the reality faced by businesses. As a result, it hampers consumption and gradually reduces the appeal of the European market. Without a competitive market, no country or company in the world will be inclined to adjust its regulations to align with European directives.

Our team believes that this situation is becoming unsustainable. The evidence is clear in the economic landscape we are presenting: from the de-industrialisation of Germany, which we had already anticipated, to the return of Greece to its worst struggles, and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy failing on every front. Add to this the alarming revelations about France’s public finances and the signs are undeniable! Even the Draghi report, recently submitted to the desk of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, brings nothing new.

For the EU, one political factor will provide a way out of the global systemic crisis: a peace agreement in Ukraine by 2025. The time is right and the signs are mounting: from the risky incursions by the Ukrainian army into Russia, to the government reshuffles, and Ukraine’s financial struggles in repaying its debts, all indicating a loss of momentum. On the side of its allies, European financial aid is running out, while uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the American presidential election has left Uncle Sam faltering. This war cannot continue indefinitely and everyone is gradually coming to terms with this reality. We think the conditions are ripe for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2025. This is essential not only for the BRICS states, but also for Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even Europe. Also, the US, the EU and the UK cannot lead these negotiations alone.

The EU’s ongoing failure to resolve its long-standing economic crises and to act as a force for peace on the continent will compel it to reinvent itself. Nation-states are poised to regain control of an expanded Europe through the European Political Community—an intergovernmental body that includes 44 members (the 27 EU states, EFTA, and candidate countries), with the United Kingdom playing a central role. This enlarged community will be far more agile, allowing Europe to establish itself within a multipolar world.

To help us navigate this major transition, we’ve prepared one of our traditional “calendars of the future,” identifying and analysing the most pivotal events of the next six months. It’s a valuable exercise, increasingly vital in this ever-shifting world where navigating without a GPS has become nearly impossible.

In the context of multipolar rebalancing, the rivalry between Chinese and American space powers offers valuable insights and provides a clear roadmap leading up to 2030. By that time, both nations are expected to be on equal footing in this domain.

And as always, we include our investments, trends and recommendations to help protect your assets amidst these various upheavals.

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