Coming soon, the GEAB bulletin 179. Synopsis..

2024 – 2030: Fast-track Destruction. Paving the way for the Multipolar World’s New Routes

Geopolitical and economic actors worldwide are presently involved in hastening the fast-track destruction of the old world. This trend is indicative of a loss of patience with the persistence of the order inherited from the Cold War, which nonetheless survived the collapse of the USSR rather well. Above all, this haste to pave the way for the world of the future, but before doing so, is leading to an intensification of confrontation that is naturally worrying.

The European Commission’s determination to encourage the opening of negotiations on the integration of Ukraine is taking on the air of a fast-track procedure. In any case, this is the impression given by the very recent statements made by its President, Ursula von der Leyen, a month ahead of the next European Council, which is due to rule on the issue. A process that will ultimately exacerbate the divisions and dysfunctions within the Council and within the Member States, even if the attention of European public opinion has currently been diverted to another burning issue, the Hamas-Israel conflict and Gaza, which will dominate the agendas of the European elections in June 2024. A change of course for the European Union as we know it.

The same sequence in Israel/Palestine, where the conflict is likely to be resolved sooner than most observers currently think. All the players on the ground have an interest in this fast-tracking. The article in this issue also lends itself to the exploration of scenarios, the first and most likely of which would see Israel and Palestine as fully integrated states in a new peaceful and cooperative regional structure. The second, less likely but which cannot be ignored, would see, under pressure from the community of anti-Zionist ultra-Orthodox Jews, the dissolution of the State of Israel into a new multi-faith state.

This acceleration is the result of the return of the logic of force, as described in our previous issue, and which we will come back to in order to complete it with the various conflicts that we were unable to cover last month, Armenia/Azerbaijan, Serbia/Kosovo, Pakistan/Afghanistan, etc., which are also responding to these same geostrategic emergencies.

However, we must not get blinded by the short term. We must never lose sight of the capacity for creative destruction that the world order brings with it. The primary aim of these accelerated procedures is to bring about a new multipolar organisation of the world. This is already materialising in the creation of new routes (trade routes, internet cables, gas pipelines, etc.) which are, quite literally, creating a new map of the world, more resilient, more complex, richer, but with more dependencies. As these projects are taking place over the long term, they are crucial to the exercise of projecting into the future, which is what anticipation is all about. As a key player in the development of these infrastructures, China is moving towards a delicate equation of global receivables and debts, having granted numerous loans to finance this type of project.

Finally, what does the future hold for artificial intelligence in this new world shaped by new technologies? This month, two authors answer these questions, one an essayist, Mihai Nadin, the other a fiction writer, Grégory Aimar. These advances are themselves accelerating at an impressive pace, affecting our relationship with intelligence, of course, but also with spirituality and religion, and above all our energy consumption and the destruction of our habitat. As always, you’ll find our investment recommendations to help you keep up with the accelerating pace.

The headlines of issue 179 :

• Editorial: Fast Track Destruction
• Geopolitics: The Return of the logic of force (part two)
• Ukraine 2025: The End of the unilateral European Union (or ‘the Zelensky curse’)
• Israel-Hamas: The other scenario
• 2030: Trade Routes, Internet cables, Gas pipelines… the new routes of the multipolar world
• 2035-2040: The difficult equation of global debt and Chinese debt
• A Reader’s Eyes on the Future:
  – Mihai Nadin: However spectacular the achievements described as AI, none can be considered intelligent;
  – Grégory Aimar: A technological religion could be a palliative solution to the disappearance of traditional religions
• Investments, trends and recommendations

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