Coming soon, the GEAB Bulletin 186. Discover its exclusive content!

At a time when we are being called upon to reduce our consumption for reasons of supply, cost and ecology, our societal model relies on a proliferation of energy-intensive tools such as AI. That’s why this month we’ll start by exploring the possibility that the energy and financial needs of AI, on one hand, and humanity on the other, could come into conflict.

We will then look back at the European elections of June 9. We are halfway through, and the pivotal election year of 2024 has thus far lived up to its promises. However, there have been a few upheavals, a lot of confirmations and an accelerating momentum. We have identified the main trend of 2024: the wait-and-see attitude typical of election years is numbing a large part of the globe, as countries await both the result of their own election and that of the American people, the last on the list (even the British go to the polls somewhat early in July!). As the ballots are held, the next steps become clearer. Many votes confirm the trends, or even accelerate them. In Korea, India and, of course, the European Union, the incumbent parties have won, even if without glory.

Regarding the European elections, as expected, the sovereigntist and identity-driven right-wing parties (ECR and ID) have become the third political force within the European Parliament, but they are also firmly rooted in the national landscape (with 27 national elections within the EU). The conservative right emerges slightly strengthened thanks to its ultra-conservative wing, potentially paving the way for another term for Ursula von der Leyen, now with an even more Atlanticist political line, given that the Greens and Liberals no longer carry enough influence to prioritize ecological urgency.

The uncompromising victory of Marine Le Pen’s RN, led by the very young Bardella in the French election and President Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly (anticipated, by the way) are creating new political uncertainties that will further cloud Europe’s economic prospects. This is why we wanted to take stock of the major economic and financial trends in the West mid-2024, drawing a distinction between a United States that is struggling but better equipped to hold its own and a European Union that will have taken a decidedly rightward turn.

In the short run, Europe finds itself unable to refuse capital injections, compelled even to tap into Russian assets and thus lacks the means to resist the investment strategies of foreign countries, especially Saudi Arabia, but this theme will be addressed alongside our trends, investments and recommendations.