GEAB 193

We anticipate that, in a few weeks’ time (sooner than we might think), a peace agreement will be signed between Russia and Ukraine, under American guidance, known as the Treaty of Riyadh[1], ushering in a new era for the Western system of power

To gain a clearer picture, let’s take a series of the major tools and institutions of this power and conjugate them into the future.

Ukrainian demand: Territorial integrity preserved

But first, let’s reiterate our anticipation: the peace agreement will uphold Ukraine’s territorial integrity—except for Crimea. Three key reasons support this outcome:

. this is a sine qua non for Europeans and Ukrainians.

. Russia needs to secure its border and pushing it back into western Ukraine is not the way to do it – quite the contrary.

. like many other states in the world, Russia is firmly committed to the principle of territorial integrity, the pillar of national sovereignty that is so dear to its heart.

Russian demand: Borders secured… by NATO

However, our team has changed its mind about the purpose of the current negotiations.

For a long time, we thought that peace would be achieved if Ukraine returned to neutral status, guaranteeing Russia a buffer zone between itself and its enemy, NATO. But our January trends panorama has already laid down another anticipation: after 3 years of war, history is not equipped with a rewind button, so there will be no return to the ex-ante situation. Instead, the Riyadh Treaty will most probably hato to include at its core the integration of Russia into NATO as the one and only means of creating the conditions for lasting peace between Europe and Russia, once again guaranteed by the United States. If this hypothesis is still difficult to accept in the current context, here are our arguments:

. The United States has no intention of abandoning the transatlantic relationship but rather seeks to redefine it—particularly to ensure it no longer burdens them strategically (avoiding entanglement in European conflicts that go against their interests) or financially (as Europe has the means to fund its own security system).