Category: Ukraine

At the crossroads of a Russian past, an American present and a European future, Ukraine, which for the last 3 years has been a testing ground for the wars of the 21st century, is on its way to becoming the key to Europe’s next-generation defence architecture, particularly in terms of arms production. The EU at […]

We anticipate that, in a few weeks’ time (sooner than we might think), a peace agreement will be signed between Russia and Ukraine, under American guidance, known as the Treaty of Riyadh[1], ushering in a new era for the Western system of power To gain a clearer picture, let’s take a series of the major […]

History has shown that even the most devastating wars sometimes lead to defining moments—when great treaties are signed, altering the course of the world. These agreements remain in history books not just for their impact, but for their ability to carve a path forward from a seemingly deadlocked future: Westphalia, Versailles, Yalta… and soon, perhaps, […]

The year 2025 could mark a turning point with the signing of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. This event, driven by the BRICS+ and new international alliances, could rebalance global dynamics and offer a way out of the crisis for the economically exhausted European Union. One political element will open a way out […]

Impossible relaunch of the European defence industry, political and social confrontations, strategic disagreements, diplomatic differences… “Until now, Europe has been built out of crises”. This has been a historically verifiable motto. The conflict in Ukraine, however, will be the crisis that proves this motto wrong, and even brings the edifice crashing down on itself. The […]

In our October issue, the GEAB team anticipated Ukraine’s medium-term development: As a result, Ukraine’s integration into the EU seems rather hypothetical, as it would have to be supported by all Member States…. The Ukrainian people are beginning to realise this. In the medium term, the country will experience the paradoxes that the EU can […]

Logically, the international governance invented by the West after two world wars to create the conditions for peace was based on the defence of weak players (Palestinians, Armenians, Saharawis, etc.) against strong players (Israel, Azerbaijan, Morocco, etc.). It is morally undeniable that a peace system is designed to curb the expansionist ambitions of those who […]

Ukrainian refugees now live in Europe under a special status called temporary protection, modelled after a similar status created by the US at the end of the Cold War. While this status offers them privileged benefits, it also exacerbates the difficulties Europe faces, which we illustrate with a deep dive into the German situation. This […]

For our traditional dive into the archives in August, we have logically chosen the major theme of this year 2022: the entry of Russian forces in Ukraine. The interest of this exercise is primordial to our work of anticipation, and it makes more sense on such a burning subject. As we mentioned in our March […]

BRICS + While the European continent seems to be living in tune with the delivery of arms to Ukraine and the political shockwaves caused by the conflict in our societies, this war is not having the same impact on other parts of the globe. The United States’ cries would have brought the world’s states to […]

The four pillars of food security (availability, access, use and stability) are currently being shattered by the global situation (explained in detail below) and soon, we will be paying more for just about everything. Whether it comes to eating in or out, as all food prices are predicted to increase: foodflation[1] (food prices bubble) is […]

The economic scissors are closing in on the global construction sector. The good old economic model based, to a very large extent, on new construction will soon no longer be sustainable, while another model, based on a more pragmatic approach (maintenance and renovation of existing buildings), is not yet in place to take over. As […]

It is not a bipolar world that will result from the current war between the West and Russia, but the collapse of 500 years of Eurocentric global civilisation, at the core of which we see Europe, Russia and Ukraine mainly. This will have the US, China and the rest of the world involved not necessarily […]

In the middle of a storm, it is difficult to keep one’s eyes on the horizon. Instead, you see the sky pitching, you hear the sails slamming, you get the spray in your face, everyone screams their fears and angers, and this translates in losing one’s grounding. This is how we should understand the uproar […]

Among the few certainties to be formulated about the Russian-Ukrainian war, there is this one: it is the end of the Cold War! … in that it has now become “hot”, which mainly changes everything. As we have already said about the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan last September[1], 1989 was not “the end” […]

  For the fourth consecutive month, accompanied by all the usual precautions, our team continues to believe that the crisis’ peak is now behind us. It’s clear that two photos taken five minutes before and five minutes after this peak can be identical. On the other hand the film isn’t comparable; it’s that the perspective […]

The various quantitative easings, or other political stimuli and support for real estate, have prevented real estate prices to collapse as they should have done in the turmoil of the global systemic crisis. We say: “as they should have done”, because it was the only way of finally balancing delusional bubbles… Investments, trends and recommendations […]

In the chaos that characterizes any crisis, explanations increase as so many attempts to impose their vision of the world where the stake is world domination. The chaotic “gap[1] » opened by a crisis is also a narrative war zone whose winners will be either the strongest (for a short period of time), or the most […]