CALENDAR
14–17 September: European Parliament plenary session (Strasbourg)
This session and Ursula von der Leyen’s speech are crucial because, from an economic perspective, they will determine Europe’s ability to halt its deindustrialisation in the face of massive subsidies from Washington and Beijing, whilst navigating the complex dilemma of maintaining strict climate targets and safeguarding the competitiveness of its businesses. In short, this is the moment of truth to see whether the EU can assert itself as an industrially sovereign power centre (agenda here).
18–20 September: Russian State Duma elections
These elections serve as a crucial strategic barometer for assessing the internal resilience of Vladimir Putin’s regime faced with the strain of the war. Although the outcome of the vote leaves no doubt that the ruling party will get its absolute majority, this first national election since 2022 is crucial to monitor for two reasons. Geopolitically, the vote in the occupied Ukrainian territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, parts of Kharkiv and Crimea) serves as a tool for constitutional consolidation to force the integration of these regions, whilst the large-scale inclusion of war veterans on the electoral rolls aims to permanently militarise Russia’s new political elite. Economically, this election coincides with an unprecedented vulnerability on the home front. The exorbitant cost of the war economy is beginning to weigh on citizens’ standard of living, exacerbated by rumours of mobilisation and major industrial disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries (Russia is importing refined products, notably petrol, for the first time in history and in record quantities, due to shortages on its domestic market).
20 September: Regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Germany) Login
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The recommendations below are the result of a systemic forecasting approach specific to the GEAB. They do not constitute personalised financial advice or investment recommendations. In a context of high [...]
