ANTICIPATION
The famous ‘momentum’ that transformed the war in Ukraine into a financial windfall for many European countries will come up against the growing burden of our accumulated debts on our economies, as a result of the ongoing unwinding of the carry trade yen – an event we have been anticipating since June 2025[1] – which has just taken place following the second intervention on 9/09/by the Secretary of State for the Treasury, Scott Bessent, in support of the yen[2]. The financial crisis that is consequently unfolding[3] will impact an already strained European political agenda, deepening intra-European divisions to the point of creating genuinely irreconcilable blocs and paralysing European governance. This must be anticipated at all costs.
The ‘momentum’ of the war is running out of steam
For the past four years, the European Union has capitalised on the return of war on its doorstep. The security crisis has served as a powerful catalyst to ignite a European investment machine that was running out of steam in the wake of the massive borrowing associated with the Covid response and was returning to budgetary rules and divergent national interests.
Under pressure from current events, the continent has been able to embark on a process of accelerated change. The NextGenerationEU recovery plan[4], launched in 2020, has been combined with the mechanisms of the Peace Facility programme and the Sovereign Industrial Plans (ReArm Europe, EDIP, Made in Europe, Clean Industrial Deal, Technological Sovereignty Package), enabling the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact[5] to be relaxed and hundreds of billions of euros to be injected into the European economy. Europe has temporarily increased growth dynamic driven by public procurement and industrial rearmament.
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The recommendations below are the result of a systemic forecasting approach specific to the GEAB. They do not constitute personalised financial advice or investment recommendations. In a context of high [...]
