ANTICIPATION
If we are correct and Donald Trump’s America is systematically dismantling all the ties paralysing and crushing the United States, preventing it from taking its place as ‘primus inter pares’ in the multipolar global order, there remains one major obstacle to remove: the mutual US-Japan financial dependence.
As part of the follow-up to our analysis last June regarding an implosion of the global debt system centred on Japan[1], we confirm once again this month the gravity of the situation and the impossibility of resolving it without calling into question Japan’s alignment with Washington.
Yet the defining feature of the current Takaichi government is that it is adhering more than ever to this course of action[2], thereby exposing the entire region to the risks associated with the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations on the one hand[3], and the Japanese people themselves to the risks of inflation and impoverishment largely caused by the country’s dependence on the dollar[4].
Indeed, amidst a rather fascinating relative indifference, the financial crisis of the ‘world’s banker’ – Japan – is progressing. Exacerbated by the war in Iran, the situation is spiralling out of control, as Japan is selling massive amounts of yen to pay energy bills denominated in dollars that have doubled[5], and on the other it is selling massive amounts of dollars to prop up its currency, which is collapsing[6] due to the previous point, all of which is exacerbated by speculation, the primary target of the BoJ’s strategy to defend the yen[7].
In desperation, Japan is asking the United States to come to its rescue and also sell dollars to buy yen, in order to coordinate action designed to send a message to the markets (and speculators) that Japan is not alone and that it is dangerous to bet against the yen[8]. Despite his undoubted interest in the stability of the global financial system, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent does not seem all that willing to accede to Japan’s urgent request.
Login
EDITORIAL For the past 20 years, we'been observing, analysing and anticipating as best we can the stages of the massive transition from a functional Western-centred world to a functional multipolar [...]
ANALYSIS Anthony Trad, Geopolitical Analyst Chairman of Stradegy Advisory For over 20 years, the GEAB has been studying the transition from a relatively simple Western-centred world – characterised by [...]
AGENDA 14–15 May – BRICS+: new candidates, new challenges The BRICS foreign ministers are meeting on 14 and 15 May 2026 in New Delhi under the Indian presidency, a gathering [...]
EVENT In 2026, Switzerland will assume the chairmanship of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for the third time – following 1996 and 2014. This term of [...]
VISION I was sixteen. It was December 1983. WarGames had just come out. I saw it back then, as a teenager, and something took root inside me. A fascination with [...]
Disclaimer: The recommendations below are the result of a systemic anticipation approach specific to the GEAB. They do not represent personalised financial advice or investment incentives. In a context of [...]
