ANTICIPATION
In 2025, the entire structure of global public and private debt is undergoing rapid change.
As central banks lighten their balance sheets in the wake of the Covid pandemic, the race to deploy AI gathers pace and new financial channels emerge, a vast movement towards the internationalisation of currencies – and therefore national debts – is opening up the debt market to competition, which until now has been almost exclusively reserved for the US dollar[1].
In this article, we list the major systemic transformations we are seeing, placing them within the context of a gradual process of “dollar decline” – because we must call a spade a spade: since January, the US dollar has fallen 13.5% against the euro, 4.46% against the yen and 7.76% against the pound sterling.
Reminder: Currency is debt
As a premise to this demonstration: all modern currency is, by its very nature, debt.
A banknote, a bank deposit, or a central bank reserve represents a claim on its issuer—whether a government, central bank, or commercial bank. When such currency circulates across borders, as the dollar does, that debt takes on an international dimension.
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