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Pic GEAB 127 What will the transatlantic relationship prepared by Donald Trump look like?

The multi-polarisation of the planet is currently going through a bipolarisation phase, something we anticipated in 2009, if Europe could not reposition itself intelligently, taking clear account of the great global geopolitical reconfiguration.

Having dealt with the Middle East (without success, so far, since Iran has not yet yielded[1] – but it’s only in November that the sanctions will be applied[2]), Donald Trump’s United States began to make a serious effort to rebuild the transatlantic relationship it needs to secure its economic recovery and attempt to maintain its dominance in the face of China’s growing influence.

With his famous ‘trade war’, D. Trump has indeed effected this bipolarisation between two worlds, Chinese and American: on the one hand, the countries/regions reorienting their markets towards China;[3] on the other, those who prefer closing ranks around Washington rather than losing the American market, especially when the US economy reboots.[4]

As far as Europe is concerned, our team has never doubted that if a choice were imposed on it, it would start by returning to its old habits, rather than jumping into an Eastern adventure. It is this choice precisely into which Trump is currently forcing Europe and a new framework for the transatlantic relationship is about to emerge. In this GEAB issue, we’ll be exploring some strong features that are already apparent. We shall also analyse the political process by which Trump’s America intends to achieve its goals; a process which will be a decisive factor in the series of transformations that the EU is about to witness. Meanwhile, the 2019 European elections are still, in our opinion, a tipping point for the aforementioned developments.

A US takeover bid on Europe?

Here are three items of news that indicate a hardening of the United States’ European policy:

  • First, the meeting between Juncker and Trump this summer, while Europeans were at the beach, during which the President of the European Commission has literally pledged and accepted all the conditions of the American President: To buy US liquefied gas, which had been refused so far; to buy US soybeans, which the Chinese no longer take because of taxes imposed on their products; to stand together against China (this is not explicitly mentioned in the minutes, but clearly evoked as part of a common objective to ‘protect American and European companies from unfair trade practice’); and, finally, to sit at the negotiating table for the next Transatlantic Trade Agreement.[5] In exchange for all these concessions, magnanimous Trump was content to offer the suspending of customs barriers on European cars, as long as the EU remained at the negotiating table. As for the tariffs on steel and aluminium, the question was not debated, so they have been maintained.
  • Funnier, but revealing nevertheless, the new Prime Minister of Greenland, Kim Kielsen, elected last April, has just lost his parliamentary majority following the breakdown of his ... Read